Recently, the domestic pig market has gradually gotten rid of the previous decline, and there has been an obvious trend. This was mainly due to the impact of the acceleration of the reduction of pig farm capacity in the fourth quarter of last year. In the middle and first half of this month, the breeding end was overly pessimistic, and the group pig enterprises were panicked, resulting in increased pressure on pigs. However, in the middle and second half of the year, the pressure on live pigs gradually eased, and at the same time, pork consumption entered the peak season, and the market supply and demand pattern reversed. The mentality of farmers has weakened, the mentality of chasing up and pressing the bar has become stronger, the slaughtering enterprises have not been able to collect pigs, and the phenomenon of price increase and quantity has increased. According to the analysis of institutional data, the price of foreign ternary pigs rose to 15 on January 318 yuan kg, 6 days pig price **133 yuan, an increase of 919%。At present, the price of pigs is showing a significant trend, the latest data shows that the average price of live pigs is 158 yuan kg, 048 yuan kg, the national market is generally **.
Expansion: Behind this pig price, there are multiple factors. On the one hand, due to the acceleration of pig farm production capacity in the fourth quarter of last year, there was excessive pessimism at the breeding end at the beginning of this month, and the first and group pig enterprises panicked out of slaughter. In the middle and late of this month, the pressure on live pigs gradually eased, and at the same time, it also ushered in the peak season of pork consumption, which made the market supply and demand pattern change significantly. Farmers gradually weakened the mentality of subscribing to sell, began to chase the pressure bar, and slaughtering enterprises are also facing the problem of poor pig collection, in order to ensure the quantity, price increases have gradually become the norm. On the other hand, the positive Spring Festival holiday has also promoted the price of pigs. Driven by this two-way supply and demand, pig prices have shown a significant trend.
According to statistics, on January 31, the center of gravity of the national pig price was mainly concentrated in the Middle East provinces and regions, and the pig price in other regions was average. The price of pigs in Jiangsu rose to 1755 yuan, Anhui rose to 174 yuan, Henan and Shandong rose to about 17 yuan per kilogram, and Zhejiang and Shanghai rose to 17 yuan per kilogram. East China as a whole showed a trend that exceeded expectations. In the Northeast, Heilongjiang rose by only 01 yuan, Jilin and Liaoning rose at 03~0.5 yuan kg. In the South China market, the pig price in Guangdong is **02~0.4 yuan, up to 1545 yuan kg. It can be seen that on January 31, the center of gravity of the national pig price was mainly concentrated in the Middle East provinces and regions, and the increase in other regions was relatively small.
Expansion: Judging from the changes in pig prices across the country, there is a large difference in the increase in different regions. According to statistics, on January 31, the center of gravity of the national pig price mainly appeared in the Middle East provinces and regions, while the pig price in the north and south was average. In Jiangsu, the price of pigs rose to 1755 yuan, Anhui rose to 174 yuan, the price of pigs in Henan and Shandong also rose to about 17 yuan kg. The pig price in Zhejiang and Shanghai has risen to 17 yuan, and it can be said that the pig price in East China has exceeded the market's expectations. However, the increase in pig prices in the Northeast is relatively small, and Heilongjiang is only 01 yuan, Jilin and Liaoning rose at 03~0.5 yuan between kilograms. In the South China market, the price of pigs in Guangdong is 02~0.4 yuan, reached 1545 yuan kg. It can be seen that on January 31, the center of gravity of the national pig price was mainly concentrated in the Middle East provinces and regions, while the pig prices in the north and south maintained a slight upward trend.
With the approach of the Spring Festival, there may be some changes in the supply and demand situation in the market, and it is expected that pig prices may fall to a certain extent. Although the eastern, central and northern regions may continue to face the situation of **shortage, and the pressure on pig prices is still there, but as the rain and snow weather gradually ends, the purchase and sale of live pigs gradually recovers, and the pre-holiday stocking of slaughterhouses will be gradually completed, and the demand follow-up may weaken. In addition, the phenomenon of slaughter and piling at the breeding end may heat up, which may form a certain downward pressure on pig prices. On the whole, with the support of two-way supply and demand, pig prices may show a trend of rising and falling. Personally, I believe that the average price of live pigs in the country may rise to 16 before the Spring Festival5 yuan or so kg.
Expanding: With the approach of the Spring Festival, there may be some changes in the market supply and demand situation, and there is also some uncertainty about the trend of pig prices. Although the eastern, central and northern regions may continue to face the shortage of the situation, the pressure on pig prices still exists, but as the rain and snow weather gradually ends, the purchase and sale of live pigs will gradually return to normal, and the pre-holiday stocking of slaughterhouses will also be gradually completed. As a result, the follow-up of demand is likely to weaken. In addition, the phenomenon of slaughter and piling at the breeding end may gradually increase, which may form a downward pressure on pig prices. On the whole, with the support of two-way supply and demand, pig prices may show a trend of rising and falling. Personally, I believe that the average price of live pigs in the country may rise to 16 before the Spring Festival5 yuan or so kg.
On the whole, there has been an obvious trend in the domestic pig market recently, and the latest data shows that pig prices continue to appear. This is mainly due to the acceleration of pig farm production capacity in the fourth quarter of last year, as well as the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the peak pork consumption season. There are differences in the increase in pig prices in different regions, with the Middle East provinces and regions increasing more and other regions increasing relatively small. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the market supply and demand situation may change, and pig prices may fall. Personally, I expect that the national average price of live pigs may rise to 16 before the Spring Festival5 yuan or so kg. The above is a personal opinion and is for reference only.