[Information guide].
The Fed minutes showed that there was a risk of a premature rate cut.
Fed governors say now is not the time to cut interest rates.
U.S. mortgage demand has fallen sharply.
The UK posted its largest budget surplus on record in January.
Japan** lowered its economic forecast in its monthly report.
[Market Information].
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting released on the 21st showed that the federal ** interest rate may have peaked, but there is a risk of easing the monetary policy stance too soon.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on the 21st that there is not enough confidence to confirm the direction of the economy, and now is not the time to cut interest rates.
Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, said on the 21st that recent economic data shows that although the overall inflation situation in the United States has improved, the pressure on some industries is still too high.
The seasonally adjusted data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association on the 21st showed that the demand for mortgages in the United States fell sharply due to the surge in mortgage rates.
The UK posted its largest budget surplus on record in January. The Office for National Statistics said tax revenues were £16.7bn higher than expenditures in January, more than double the surplus in the same period a year earlier. This also puts the UK's budget deficit for the first 10 months of the current financial year at £96.6 billion, £9.2 billion less than the Office for Budget Responsibility**.
EU regulators are likely to ease rules for telcos mergers to allow big tech companies and other companies to fund the 5G rollout, according to European Commission documents.
Germany's cabinet approved the economic report, setting GDP growth in 2024 from 1 previously3% corrected to 02%。
Asian bonds attracted foreign capital inflows for the third consecutive month in January, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in major economies. But analysts said recent data showing persistent U.S. inflation and the resulting surge in U.S. Treasury yields could affect demand for emerging market assets in the future. Data from regulators and bond market associations showed that foreign investors poured a net 31 percent into the bond markets of India, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand last month$100 million, up from $25 in the previous month$800 million in net** up 20%.
Japan** lowered its economic forecast in its monthly report for the first time in three months, amid signs of weakness in private consumption and production.
Statistics from Japan's Ministry of Finance show that due to factors such as the deceleration in exports, Japan reappeared in January by 1A huge ** deficit of 76 trillion yen.
In the first 20 days of February, exports adjusted for differences in working days increased by 99%。The Lunar New Year holiday distorted the year-on-year figures, with overall exports down 78%, and overall imports fell by 192%。
South Korea** intends to relax foreign exchange controls on foreign investors and allow them to borrow KRW funds in the course of foreign exchange transactions, etc., in order to improve the convenience of foreign investors using KRW for ** and bond transactions in China.
According to the latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in December 2023, global refined copper production was 244320,000 tons, consumption of 242460,000 tons, **surplus 1870,000 tons. For the full year of 2023, global refined copper production is 2,762610,000 tons, with a consumption of 2,769190,000 tons, ** shortage of 6580,000 tons. In December 2023, global copper mine production was 197480,000 tons. For the full year of 2023, global copper mine production will be 2,236410,000 tons.
[Global Market Dynamics].
The most actively traded April futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange *** market is 5 on the 21st$5 and closed at $2,034 an ounce$3, a decrease of 027%。
The NYMERX closed at 77 cents a barrel for April delivery$91, an increase of 113%；London Brent for April delivery was 69 cents and closed at 83 per barrel$03, an increase of 084%。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 48 from the previous session44 points, closed at 3861224 points, an increase of 013%；S&P 500 Index 629 points, closed at 498180 points, an increase of 013%；NASDAQ Composite Index**4991 points, closed at 1558087 points, a decrease of 032%。
U.S. Dollar Index**007%, closing at 104 at the end of the foreign exchange market005。As of the end of the New York exchange market, 1 euro is exchanged for 1$0817, up from $1 in the previous session$0806; 1 pound to 1$2,632, up from $1 in the previous session$2,619; 1 dollar to 15019 yen, up from 150 in the previous session02 yen; 1 USD to 0CHF 8,797, down from 0CHF 8,817; 1 dollar for 1C$3,503, down from $1 in the previous session$3,523 CAD; 1 dollar to 103,696 SEK, up from 10 in the previous session3675 SEK.
The onshore yuan was quoted at 7 against the US dollar at 16:30 on the 21st1887, up 89 basis points from the previous trading day, closed at 71905。The offshore yuan rose 19 basis points to 7 against the dollar1995。
U.S. Treasury yields collectively **, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield up 54 basis points to 4675%, the yield on the 3-year Treasury note rose 51 basis point at 4448%, the yield on the 5-year Treasury note rose 53 basis points at 4311%, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 45 basis points at 4324%, the yield on the 30-year Treasury note rose 31 basis point at 4482%。
[Intraday focus].
16:15 France's preliminary manufacturing PMI (Feb).
16:30 Germany's preliminary manufacturing PMI (Feb).
17:00 Eurozone preliminary manufacturing PMI (February).
17:30 UK Manufacturing & Services PMI (Feb).
18:00 Eurozone CPI in January, final and m/m.
20:30 ECB releases the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting.
21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 17.
22:45 US Markit manufacturing and services PMI (February)
23:00 U.S. existing home sales annualized in January.
23:00 Fed Governor Jefferson speaks.
00:00 the next day, EIA** inventory in the United States for the week to February 16.
At 02:00 the next day, Fed Governor Bowman speaks.
At 06:00 the next day, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks.
Editor: Wang Xiaowei.
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