The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,700 points and 2,666 points last week33 points has become the lowest point of the recent market adjustment, and the Shenzhen Component Index once fell below the 8,000-point integer mark, and the market has a lot of irrational selling pressure. Behind the market once fell below 2700 points, the most discussed in the market is whether it should be **.
For investment, it is a technical job, and not everyone can succeed. The most impressive thing is that in the second half of 2008 and 2015, in the **irrational** process, ** is likely to be copied halfway up the mountain, and it may take more than half a year to untie the set, and some even have to wait for several years.
In the A** field, there are generally two ways of bear market adjustment, one is in the form of a sharp fall, and the other is in the form of a negative fall. Among them, the former is the most representative in 2008 and the second half of 2015, and the latter is the most representative in the long adjustment from the second half of 2001 to 2004 and the long adjustment trend from 2010 to 2014.
For the sharp fall, the adjustment is completed in the way of space for time, and the market adjustment cycle is relatively short. For the negative fall, the adjustment is completed in the way of time for space, and the adjustment period is relatively long.
From the analysis of the bear market adjustment cycle of the A** field over the years, the bear market adjustment cycle of the sharp decline is about 1 year, for example, after the peak in October 2007, the adjustment low will be seen a year later. After peaking in June 2015, it took only more than half a year to complete the phased adjustment trend.
As for the bearish bear market adjustment cycle of about 4 years, for example, after the peak in June 2001, the market has seen a long correction of nearly 4 years. Another example, after peaking in August 2009, the market entered a long adjustment, and finally reached a low point in June 2013.
At present, the A** field is in the process of bear market adjustment, and after peaking in February 2021, ** has walked out of a 3-year adjustment trend. According to the average adjustment cycle of about 4 years for A-shares, the market may be in the middle and late stages of adjustment, but it is still a little short of a full adjustment.
However, according to the current point and valuation analysis, it is basically in the historical bottom area, but the market is looking for the final low, but this low point is unsuccessful for the vast majority of investors to buy, and the market will always inadvertently complete the exploration of the lowest point.
What is a reliable signal for A-shares? We might as well focus on a few conditions.
From the analysis of historical experience, when the policy bottom and valuation bottom are established, the market bottom will be about 10% lower, and the irrational moment may be about 15% lower than the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the valuation. If 3,000 points is judged to be the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the valuation, then the market bottom of the A** market may fall in the range of 2,550 to 2,700 points. According to the current minimum of 2666 points for A-shares, it is very close to the ultimate low.
From the analysis of the net failure rate data, reviewing the corresponding 998 points in 2005, the corresponding 1664 low points in 2008, the corresponding 1849 points in 2013 and the corresponding 2440 points in 2018, the common feature of the bottom is that the net failure rate exceeded 10%. Among them, in the limit state, the net failure rate may be close to 15%. At present, the net breaking rate of the A** field has fallen below 10%, and the market has begun to enter the middle and late stages of adjustment.
From a technical point of view, the market needs to wait for the medium and long-term cycle** to establish a substantial bottoming signal. For example, a stop below a long-term ascending trend line or a stop below a long-term important **. In addition, from the perspective of the daily and weekly charts, when the market shows some classic bottoming signals, it can be regarded as the end of a phased adjustment. For example, the continuous positive and negative trend, the gradual rise of the low, the significant amplification of the bottom net or the formation of a breakthrough gap, etc.
In a trend, it's not easy to guess the bottom. Moreover, the market itself is incompatible, and the vast majority of investors ultimately miss the lowest point of the adjustment. When ** begins to bottom out, look back, how many investors can successfully buy to the lowest point?
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