Reporter Zhuang Linghui and Lu Zhikun report from Beijing.
After nearly half a year, the transaction premium rate of the land market in major cities across the country has finally stopped falling and rebounded.
The reporter of "China Business Daily" learned that since the beginning of 2024, the proportion of key first- and second-tier cities in the land auction transactions in major cities across the country has increased, and the impact of factors such as the improvement of the quality of land supply and the cancellation of price limits has led to the decline and rebound in January, although there is still a certain gap from the high level in June last year, it has exceeded the monthly level since July last year, hitting a new high in the past six months.
At the same time as the heat picked up, in January this year, the national land market and transaction scale both showed a seasonal decline, of which the scale of a single month hit a new low in the past five years. Multi-party analysis pointed out that at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the pace of the land market in various places slowed down significantly, because February coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, the scale of the rebound may be smaller, and it is expected that the land and transactions throughout the year will continue to be low-temperature, and the transaction heat will still focus on some high-quality land plots in the core first- and second-tier cities.
The premium rate has rebounded
After hitting a new high in June last year, the transaction premium rate of the national land market has been declining, and by the end of last year, it had reached about 3%. In January 2024, the downward trend of this indicator for nearly half a year finally reversed.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center, in January 2024, the transaction premium rate of the land market in major prefecture-level cities across the country was 583%, up 294 percentage points, an increase of 2 percent year-on-year03 percentage points. Although the premium rate of the national land auction market in January was still not as high as in June last year, it exceeded 48%, a new high in the past six months.
CRIC data also shows that as of January 25, the average premium rate of land transactions in its key monitored cities in January this year was 37%, up 02 percentage points.
In January this year, the premium rate of land auctions in key cities stopped the downward trend for more than half a year, and if the land auction data at the end of the month is included, the premium rate index for the whole month may rise further. CRIC pointed out that thanks to the relaxation of land price limits in many places since last year, in the context of the decline in the overall transaction scale of land auctions in January this year, the proportion of transactions in key cities has increased, and the average premium rate has finally stopped falling and rebounded, which is conducive to improving market expectations.
From the perspective of specific cities, in January this year, some hot plots in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Changsha, and Zhengzhou maintained a certain degree of popularity, but most of the urban land auction markets were still dominated by transactions at reserve prices. CRIC further pointed out that since December last year, Hangzhou, Hefei and other places have auctioned a number of high-premium plots, but the actual land prices of most of them have not been obvious, and the price difference between real estate and land is still relatively abundant, indicating that even for scarce and high-quality plots in the core sector, the current bidding in the industry is still in a relatively rational range.
Supply and demand fall cyclically
At the same time as the transaction premium rebounded, in January this year, the unsold rate of the national land auction market also further increased, and the scale of transactions also fell seasonally.
According to the monitoring data of the Zhuge Data Research Center, in January 2024, the unsold rate of the land auction market in major prefecture-level cities across the country was 1839%, an increase of 1 from the previous month39 percentage points; CRIC data also shows that as of January 25, 2024, the unsold rate of land in its key monitoring cities was 17%, an increase of 8 percentage points month-on-month, showing a cyclical increase.
CRIC pointed out that judging from the data of previous years, the high point of the land unsold rate index is in January, mainly because most third- and fourth-tier cities will densely arrange land at the end of the year, and its ** will make a larger allocation in December 2023, and the remaining land plots of average quality will be concentrated in January 2024**.
In terms of land and transactions, the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center shows that in January 2024, the land planning area of major prefecture-level cities in the country is 1528960,000 square meters, down from the same period last year94%；The planned construction area of the transaction is 282720,000 square meters, an increase of 47 year-on-year46%, down 8483%。
CRIC data also shows that as of January 25, 2024, the amount of operating land in 300 cities in January 2024 is 32.37 million square meters, a new low in the past five years. The transaction volume was 42.06 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of nearly ninety percent and a year-on-year decrease of 6%.
It is worth noting that while the transaction volume is declining, the national land transaction price in January 2024 has increased compared with the same period last year.
CRIC data shows that in January 2024, the total transaction price of operating land in 300 cities was 100.3 billion yuan, an increase of 19% over the same period last year, and the average transaction floor price was 2,385 yuan square meters, a year-on-year increase of nearly 27%; According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center, in January 2024, the transaction floor price of major prefecture-level cities across the country will be 3,665 yuan square meters, a year-on-year increase of **84%, down 1102%。
In January this year, the market share of high-energy urban land is still further increasing, and the national market in January this year is also better than the same period last year in terms of the scale of land investment. CRIC pointed out that in January this year, the planned construction area of land auctions in Chengdu and Shijiazhuang exceeded 1 million square meters, and the transaction amount of land auctions in Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an and other places exceeded 5 billion yuan.
Editor: Wang Jinlong Proofreader: Yan Jingning).