A-shares in the Year of the Dragon got off to a good start, gaining more than 11% in 8 consecutive days before and after the Spring Festival (WIND, 2023-2-6 to 2023-2-23); During the Spring Festival, Hong Kong stocks were not afraid of external disturbances, the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 4%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index was more than 6%; Chinese concept stocks remained strong in the U.S. stock market** environment, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surging 557%……China's assets are in full swing
Data**: wind, the statistical period is from 2024-2-9 to 2024-2-16.
Consumption during the Spring Festival was strong, and Hong Kong stocks fired the first shot of the Year of the Dragon
As we all know, Hong Kong stocks are domestic fundamentals plus overseas liquidityThe reason for the recovery of Hong Kong stocks is not unrelated to the strong consumption recovery during the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival holiday, judging from the consumption data of travel, tourism, catering and entertainment, the domestic economy ushered in a "dragon rising".
There are especially many people traveling this year, just at the beginning of the Spring Festival, there is ** The total number of people migrating during the Spring Festival this year may reach 9 billion. According to the data of the Ministry of Transport, from February 2 to February 15, the average daily flow of people across the country was about 2500 million person-times, a year-on-year increase of 12%, an increase of 15% over the same period in 2019. From the perspective of travel modes, civil aviation and railways grew rapidly, with average daily year-on-year growth of 63% and 50% respectively. At the same time, I don't know if you have a feeling, there are a lot of people around self-driving this year, air tickets, high-speed rail tickets are not easy to buy, we can also enjoy the convenience brought by the development of new energy, drag the family to the surrounding cities to see the landscape is also a good choice for the holiday, it is reported that the average daily ** year-on-year increase of 10% on the road, to 2300 million people.
The data may not be intuitive enough, in fact, judging from the hot search lists on various platforms and the complaining posts in the circle of friends, it is really difficult to buy a return ticket. It's no wonder that the ticket from Hainan back to Shanghai has been hyped to the point that it is more expensive than going abroad, and various Hainan return strategies have appeared on the Internet, suggesting that everyone go abroad first and then turn back. It's really not an exaggeration, the amount of duty-free shopping on Hainan Islands during the Spring Festival is as high as 248.9 billion yuan, this tourism consumption enthusiasm is real gold.
There is also a hot movie that set off the "inspirational **" flag, driving the box office of this year's Spring Festival movies to exceed 8 billion, setting a new high in the box office of the Spring Festival stalls in Chinese film history. In addition, Meituan's Spring Festival eating, drinking and entertainment consumption insight data shows that the average daily consumption scale during the Spring Festival increased by 36% year-on-year, an increase of more than 115% over the same period in 2019, doubling!
From the perspective of the Hong Kong stock industry,The sector closely related to the consumption of the Spring Festival holiday is indeed the main forceIt's no wonder that Hong Kong stocks stood out during the Spring Festival.
Data**: Wind, as of Feb 18, 2024
The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have cooled, can Hong Kong stocks continue their offensive?
Although the domestic consumption during the Spring Festival holiday has added a fire to Hong Kong stocks, external factors are not easy to ignore. The U.S. has just released inflation data for January, with CPI rising 031%, the consensus expectation is an increase of 02%, significantly exceeding expectations; Core CPI increased by 039%, the consensus expectation is an increase of 03%；A year-on-year increase of 386%, the consensus expectation is 37%。A higher-than-expected CPI reading led to a rally in Treasury yields to 43%，Higher-than-expected inflation data also weighed on market sentiment, with expectations for a Fed rate cut in March cooling, so it is necessary to pay attention to its impact on the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks.
However, although the cycle of interest rate cuts has not yet begun, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index are no longer strong. On the one hand, the trend of the dollar returning to the United States has eased, and on the other hand, funds may tend to return to the equity market to find opportunities.
The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is low, and it has a long-term investment cost performance
The current Hang Seng Index is PE833 times, processing history 372% quantile, Hang Seng TECH Index PE1793 times, at 5 in history38th percentile. Although Hong Kong stock investment should be cautious in the short term, but in the long runThe valuation of Hong Kong stocks is at a historical low, and it is cost-effective to invest.
Looking to the future,The catalyst for the stabilization of Hong Kong stocks is more dependent on the expected recovery of domestic economic fundamentals. Overall, under the combined effect of the economic recovery and the inflection point of global liquidity, Chinese assets, including Hong Kong stocks, are expected to gradually move out of the bottom area. On the one hand, the policy should further consolidate and accelerate the repair of economic fundamentals. In the early stage, Huijin increased its holdings in ETFs, intensively issued regulatory voices to boost market confidence, and the five-year LPR was sharply reduced to increase liquidity, and the market pessimism has improved, and with the convening of the follow-up two sessions, the market's expectations for the introduction of policies will be further strengthened. On the other hand, the consumption recovery during the Spring Festival is strong, and the resilience of household consumption demand has once again appeared.
Therefore, when the "policy bottom" has been clear, the "emotional bottom" may come, and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching, Hong Kong stocks do not need to be too pessimistic. Visitors who are optimistic about the Hong Kong ** field can consider passingStock Connect Internet ETF (159792) and its feeder** (Class A 014673 Class C 014674).to lay out the recovery opportunities of Hong Kong stocks
Investment is risky, ** investment should be cautious.
Before investing, investors are requested to carefully read the "** Contract", "Prospectus" and other legal documents. **Equity may be lower than the initial par value and losses may occur. The Manager undertakes to manage and use the assets in a manner of honesty and trustworthiness, diligence and responsibility, but does not guarantee a certain profit or a minimum return. Past performance and its net worth are not indicative of future performance. The performance of other ** does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of this **.
The above information is for reference only, if you need to purchase relevant products, please pay attention to the relevant regulations on investor suitability management, do a good job of risk assessment in advance, and purchase ** products with matching risk levels according to your own risk tolerance.