On February 22, the steel spot market was mainly stable, and the main varieties in the market rose and fell, of which the main coking coal rose by more than 4%, and the main iron ore fell by 149%, the current raw fuel performance is differentiated, the steel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and steel prices.
oneAnalysis of long and short factors
1 Thread production decreased for the ninth consecutive week The social treasury increased for the eleventh consecutive week
As of the week of February 22, the national rebar output decreased for the ninth consecutive week, the factory warehouse increased for the fifth consecutive week, and the social treasury increased for the eleventh consecutive week. Under normal circumstances, the post-holiday market mainly game steel demand, the current spot market demand has not yet recovered, coupled with the weak steel demand expectations, the slow resumption of molten iron production, triggering negative feedback on the raw material end, bearish steel ** trend.
2 Coking coal** is expected to tighten
Affected by rumors of production cuts in some coal mines in Shanxi Province, coking coal ** is expected to tighten to a certain extent, and coking coal futures prices continue to strengthen today. At present, the coking coal disk has boosted the steel cost support end, which is good for the steel industry. However, the coking coal spot market has not followed the upward trend, and the volatility of the downstream auction transaction is large, and it is necessary to be cautious to chase higher before the actual downstream demand does not have a new increment.
3 Fed meeting minutes: the timing of the "first decline" is still unclear The inflation trajectory needs to be observed
On February 21, local time, the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that the federal ** interest rate may have peaked, but there is a risk of easing the monetary policy stance too soon. According to a tracking data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, as of the 21st Eastern time, the market expects a 93% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March, and the first rate cut may occur in June. The U.S. dollar index remains strong, and the renminbi is relatively under pressure, which is bearish for the steel ** trend.
Second, today's steel market**
1.Spot market
Today's domestic steel market is mainly stable, and the trading volume is relatively weak.
2.Workhorse
In terms of *, as of **, the main forces of various varieties rose and fell, of which coking coal rose 412%, iron ore fell 149%。
Steel mills adjust prices
According to incomplete statistics, today there are 2 steel mills to adjust the building materials factory**, of which 1 is raised, 1 is down, the range is 10-70 yuan tons. The details are as follows:
Upward revision: 1Tangshan Donghua: wire rod ** increased by 10 yuan ton.
Downgrade: 2Lu'an Iron and Steel: rebar ***30 yuan ton; Wire rod and coil snail ** down 70 yuan ton.
All adjustments are inclusive of tax.
Three. Raw fuel market
Today's Imported Mine:The market of mainstream varieties of imported iron ore is **small**. The market expects that the demand for steel in the peak season is low, and the steel mills are expected to reduce production, which in turn will drive the demand for iron ore to decline. At present, the level of iron ore arrival at the port is still at a high level, the port inventory has accumulated significantly, the resumption of hot metal production is slow, and it is expected that the iron ore will run weakly tomorrow.
Coke Today:Coke ** is running stably. Most coke enterprises are still in a state of loss, and the enthusiasm for production is average, and some coke enterprises are affected by the weather, and their shipments are blocked, and the coke inventory in the plant has accumulated. On the demand side, the resumption of blast furnace production of steel mills is less than expected, and coke demand continues to be under pressure.
Scrap today:Scrap steel ** held a steady tone, up and down 10-50. The resumption rate of construction sites is still at a low level, the scrap market has not yet returned to normal levels, and it is expected that the amount of scrap steel at the construction site will gradually increase after the Lantern Festival. It is expected that the scrap market may follow the general environment adjustment in the short term, and it is expected that the scrap steel will maintain a stable operation tomorrow.
Billet Today:Tangshan Qian'anpu billet resources ex-factory tax reported 3550 yuan tons. The national billet market is narrowly raised, the snail is strong, the downstream finished products are mainly stable, the overall transaction is average, and it is expected that the billet will run in a narrow range tomorrow.
Fourth, Tao Xiaogang's point of view
At present, the demand for steel spot market has not yet recovered, and the pressure on steel inventories is greater under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the pattern of weak fundamentals continues, and steel prices are relatively under pressure. At the same time, due to the expected weak demand for steel, the steel mills have insufficient power to resume production in the case of losses, the raw fuel is also relatively under pressure, and the black system is running weakly as a whole. Considering the strong performance of coking coal, coupled with the expectation of favorable policies, and the market still expects demand after the fifteenth day of the first month, the wait-and-see sentiment in the steel market is relatively strong, and the steel price may run in the near future. It is expected that steel prices will continue to rise steadily tomorrow, with a range of 10-20.
Information reference: Oriental Wealth, Finance Associated Press, Xiben Information, Lange Steel Network, My Steel, etc.
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