Recently, Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. announced that it is expected to have a net loss of about 32 in 20235.7 billion yuan, adjusted net profit of 10.8 billion yuan. In 2023, the steel industry will operate weakly, the downstream demand will continue to be sluggish, the steel ** will show a low-level oscillation trend, and although the raw material side will be linked, the decline will be much lower than that of the sales side. In the face of downward pressure on the steel market, the company takes marketing as the leader, strengthens resources to tilt towards profitable products, and at the same time selects opportunities to purchase to reduce procurement costs, and reduces costs in the manufacturing system, but due to the continuous narrowing of the market at both ends of supply and marketing, the company has an operating loss.
Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, due to the weakening of the steel market demand, the heating season production limit has been strict, which has a certain impact on the production willingness of enterprises, in this case, the production of steel mills has been tightened. The production index was 437%, down 21 percentage point, down for 2 consecutive months. At present, a large number of steel enterprises and steel traders are in a state of Spring Festival holiday. But these two days steel price disk **fast**, at the end of the year, steel prices are bottom?
Judging from the data, the accumulation speed of iron and steel enterprises has accelerated, and the finished product inventory index is 437%, up 08 percentage points, rising month-on-month for two consecutive months, and the index was the highest in nearly nine months. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, the inventory of key steel enterprises in early January was 1439450,000 tons, rising to 1,535 in the middle of the year450,000 tons, especially the social inventory increased significantly.
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It is difficult for steel mills to have greater changes in the production and replenishment volume before the holiday, and the output of hot metal is stable. The progress of charge replenishment has slowed down, the iron ore port is tired, the coke inventory is acceptable, the number of steel mills announcing the winter storage policy is not much different from last year, the policy has recently fallen, the interest rate and discount are smaller than in previous years, although the winter storage is now gradually forming a trend, but the scale and progress are slower than in previous years.
In the past two days, the main iron ore contract has accumulated nearly 3%. With the seasonal tightening of foreign mine shipments and the gradual return of molten iron, the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve marginally, but at the same time, the replenishment of steel mills to the raw material end has basically ended, and the port transaction has weakened significantly in the past two days. The macro atmosphere is neutral and warm, but the sustainability drive is limited. Approaching the Spring Festival, the market has great uncertainty about the recovery of demand after the holiday, and the funds gradually take profit and leave, although the iron ore fundamentals are supported, but there is no drive.
Today's coal ** fell first. In the early stage, the coal mine has resumed production, but the coal mine holiday is imminent, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in the production area before the holiday. The Spring Festival is approaching, and the downstream replenishment is nearing the end; **Business gradually left the market due to the holiday, and the mood of the intermediate link cooled down. The structure of bifocal supply and demand has not changed fundamentally, and the pressure at the industrial level has increased with the basic end of the downstream pre-holiday replenishment; Weakening of macro expectations drivers; It is expected that the bifocal will maintain a weak trend before the holiday.
Supply and demand in the steel market will continue to contract. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for steel by enterprises will continue to decrease, and steel traders will gradually leave the market seasonally, and the construction site will generally start after the Lantern Festival, so the basic steel demand in February is close to stagnation. The accumulation of steel mills will rise again, and winter storage will continue to advance.
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The blast furnace overhaul in the early stage will also be restarted after the holiday, and on the whole, both ends of supply and demand have contracted in February. Raw materials fell again, and steel was slightly lower. After entering February, the demand for raw materials may decrease again, and the lack of fundamental support for iron ore ** is expected to fall at a high level. The steel transaction will also be almost stagnant due to the Spring Festival, in the case of a sharp decline in trading volume, steel **slightly**.
At the beginning of the month, the rate of new real estate and infrastructure construction starts showed an upward trend, which is conducive to market recovery. The reality that the market is currently trading spot is weak, and the medium-term expected force may be the expectation of trading before the Spring Festival, and it is also more likely that the steel mills will increase the amount of replenishment before the holiday and the downstream winter storage will be postponed to the next year.
The steel market has now entered the pre-holiday accumulation stage. The driving role of the industry on steel is weakening, and the main driving force of the steel market is macro expectations and cost support. The market still has macro speculation, which will be a key factor in supporting steel prices. However, we believe that the basis of this macro expectation will not change, the market will switch back and forth between policy expectations and the reality of the industry, and the steel market may continue to run in February, with limited space below.