On Thursday, the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report, raising global growth** to 3 in 20241%, while in 2025, this is 32%。The International Monetary Organization (IMO) has cited U.S. spending and Russia's military spending as drivers of global economic recovery, but it warns that dangers such as war and inflation remain possible in the world economy.
"The world economy has recovered from the shock of the novel coronavirus, and we are now in a period of moderate decline, with inflation slowing down and economic development remaining stable," Guransha, a leading analyst at the International Monetary Fund, told reporters. However, we must not let our guard down, because our current development momentum is not very good, and there are still twists and turns ahead. ”
The International Monetary Organization noted that in the 20 years before the outbreak of the coronavirus, the world economy was still growing at 38% or less, in large part because banks** have tightened monetary measures to curb inflation, and some countries have achieved their fiscal balance by reducing public spending. In addition, the International Monetary Organization**, with the inflationary pressures caused by the coronavirus, and the raising of interest rates by banks, the world economic situation is likely to get worse.
The International Monetary Organization pointed out that there are several potential risk factors that will have an adverse impact on the world economy, including the Red Sea Houthi attack, the intensifying war in the Middle East, etc., which disrupt the global ** chain, promote the rise of prices, and exacerbate inflation, making it possible for ** banks to maintain a high level of interest rates for a long time.
IMO** expectations are based on several assumptions, including that primary commodities (especially fuel oil) will be ** this year and next, and that major economies will ease interest rates. For example, the IMO assumes that the Federal Reserve, the European Bank and the Bank of England will maintain unchanged interest rates in the first half of the year, and that emerging economies such as China and India will gradually lower interest rates when inflation slows.
According to the International Monetary Organization, affected by the decline in oil prices, in the last quarter of last year, the decline in worldwide inflation was greater than that of **, and it is expected to reduce the worldwide inflation rate from 6 by 20258% to 44%。The International Monetary Organization expects inflation to fall faster in developed countries and much more slowly in developing countries.
The International Monetary Organization has once again issued a warning about international divergence and competition, and the global market will be 33% growth rate to 36%, compared to 4 in the past9% is a decrease. The IMF noted that in the past year, the state has implemented about 3,000 new bans, a more than three-fold increase from 2019.
The IMO believes that the question for banks is how to normalize their monetary policy "without advance or delay." ”
Guransha said that the International Monetary Organization is closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East"We will continue to be cautious, however, the danger of a chain break and rising inflation remains unlikely. "We are far from a global depression, and the rising financial crisis is the biggest economic problem. ”
In the case of the United States, the International Monetary Organization (IMO) has increased its growth in 2024 from 1 as consumer spending at the end of the year exceeded expectations5% to 21%, but due to the lagged effect of the Fed's interest rate hikes, tight fiscal policy, and a weak job market, this figure is still higher than the 2.2 percent in 20235% should be low.
In the Eurozone, the International Monetary Organization (IMO) will grow its 2024 growth from 12% down to 09%, largely affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. IMO, Europeans will spend more as the shock from high oil prices weakens.
In the case of Russia, the IMF will grow its 2024 growth from 11% to 26 per cent, partly due to increased spending on the army as well as higher personal spending.
Argentina, for its part, saw the value of the national currency fall by more than 50% as a result of Milley's "major policy reforms", which abolished subsidies and price controls, and recommended measures to shore up the country's fiscal position.