Recently, the Shanghai Composite Index has been at 3,000 points, which has made the trend of 9 consecutive yang climbs unsuccessful, and lost the opportunity to set the longest consecutive yang record in history.
The reason for this is that the previously leading sectors, coal, infrastructure and electricity, have started to adjust, so that the Shanghai Index at 2635 points, due to the general decline of large market capitalization plates, ended the rare ** of 8 consecutive yangs. Will the ** continue to climb behind?
Say a few words from the heart, A-shares may repeat their 14-year history?
This time, the Shanghai Composite Index rose fast, and the ChiNext rose slowly to the fullest. While many are also generally turning on the bullish trend, unfortunately, the money-making effect is in the high-dividend large-cap sector.
After the high-dividend sector rose sharply, the Shanghai Composite Index rose back to 3,000 points.
But it is a pity that the gem could not rise back to 1,900 points at the same time, prompting the Shanghai Index to reach 3,000 points, and the high-dividend sector opened, and the trend of the first trend was generally killed.
Peony believes that the short-term changes in the three major stock indexes also reflect that some institutional investors are selling funds.
The funds sold in this are likely to also have the leveraged funds of financiers, so that ** opened a sideways fluctuation at 3000 points, and could not accelerate to stabilize at 3000 points and rise back to 3050 points.
According to the data, last week, the financing balance exceeded 37 billion yuan in a few days, an increase of 273%。Since the financing balance began to decrease on January 15 this year, the financing balance of the previous week rose again, indicating that speculative funds are making a comeback.
Looking back at the trend of February, the A-share before the New Year did not allow the financing balance to increase, and after the New Year, financing customers began to begin, and it can be understood that many leveraged funds have played the speculative behavior of selling high and buying low, thinking that the opportunity is coming.
If financiers use the power of leveraged funds to accelerate their speculative enthusiasm for A-shares, after the Shanghai Index has 8 consecutive yangs, they may not see 8 consecutive yangs or 9 consecutive yangs in the future.
The reason for this is that the increase in speculative funds has magnified the risk of the three major stock indexes, and the enthusiasm for continuous climbing will decrease.
Fortunately, on the other hand, the CSI 2000 Index contains the top 2,000 listed companies with a small market capitalization in the industry, and when the Shanghai Index was sideways at 3,000 points, the CSI 2000 Index was still in **, and there were 7 consecutive yang**.
Especially on February 8th, **875%, the next 6 trading days are maintaining a climb to open up the long space, not affected by the short cycle of the Shanghai Index and the ChiNext **.
It can be seen that this time, the 3000 points are the funds of institutional investors and financiers who are selling, but many of them still have other funds participating in them, and there is no risk of amplifying them.
Peony said a few words in his heart, the repair trend of A-shares is coming in February, and it will still fall in January. In February, the demand for New Year's goods has driven the recovery of consumption, and the performance growth of listed companies has not yet been hyped, and the 3,000 points will not be the highest point this time.
In other words, the climb at 2635 points and the rise back to 3000 points are probably not due to fundamental catalysis, but because some institutional investors have protected the Shanghai Composite Index and made the Shanghai Index have a big rise.
Although the fundamentals of the protective disk and the large over-falling trend have not appeared, these two factors have not yet come.
If they do, A-shares may repeat their 14-year history, and there is hope that a larger major upward trend will be brewed.
To sum up, the trend fluctuation of the short cycle is the increase in the amount of speculators that amplifies the speculation
However, the trend has been established, which can be understood as the current sideways A shares at 3000 points, which is still a small decline and a big opportunity, and the trend will continue to open after the consolidation.
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