Would anyone choose to stay in such an expensive hotel and taste such a first-class meal for two because of a TV series? Not because people are stupid or rich, but because the show takes us back to that passionate and fiery era, and many people choose to relive that memory.
Since the launch of "Flowers" in December 2023, the number of bookings for private and group tours in Shanghai has increased by 75% and 30% month-on-month, respectively.
In order to cater to the atmosphere of the play, the Peace Hotel Shanghai renamed the same room in the play"English Flower Suite"and priced up to $1 per night60 thousand.
Surprisingly, this expensive suite was booked out for many days in a row. In addition, the Peace Hotel has also launched a customized meal for two co-branded with "Flowers", with a total price of 1,702 yuan, which needs to be booked at least 10 days in advance.
Would anyone choose to stay in such an expensive hotel and taste such a first-class meal for two because of a TV series? Not because people are stupid or rich, but because the show takes us back to that passionate and fiery era, and many people choose to relive that memory.
I still remember a popular saying in the 90s of the last century: "1 billion people 900 million down, and 100 million are still thinking", at that time people referred to "down" is to carry out business transactions.
At that time, we had just come out of the shadow of the planned economy, especially those who came from within the system, and there were still some prejudices against engaging in business activities, and they always felt that doing business was not as lofty as being an official. However, this prejudice cannot stop countless people from pursuing the desire to get rich.
Therefore, the other meaning of this sentence reflects people's envy and jealousy of those merchants who have become rich, and they are also thinking about whether they should join them.
In that era, a group of plainly dressed young people hugged each other tightly, and men and women lined up in long queues, just to compete for a ** warrant.
This kind of scene is unimaginable for us who have experienced the epidemic isolation. However, their enthusiasm and madness are the epitome of that era.
On December 19, 1990, with Zhu Rongji's announcement, the Shanghai ** Stock Exchange was officially opened, marking the birth of China's capital market, and on that day, the Shanghai Composite Index started at 100 points.
The next day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange lifted the price limit, and the index doubled, soaring to 1,429 points in just four days. Less than two years later, on May 20, 1992, the Shanghai Composite Index soared to 616 points, and in 1993, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 1,500-point mark.
In Shanghai, a cultural square the size of only half a football field was temporarily transformed into a trading venue, where more than 6,000 shareholders were nervously watching the broadcast every 5 minutes and placing orders through **.
In this seemingly primitive trading environment, there are people who make a leap in wealth every day.
In August of the same year, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued an announcement, stipulating that the subscription of new shares could only be through the lottery, and each person was limited to one ballot form with his ID card, and each table could subscribe for 1,000 shares.
This policy sparked a nationwide ID card boom, and the Shenzhen Post Office received a large number of packages full of ID cards, the heaviest of which amounted to 175 kg, containing 2,500 ID cards.
Shenzhen has a permanent population of only 600,000, but 1.5 million people have poured in in a short period of time. In order to snap up the warrants, people did whatever it took to even hire migrant workers to line up and hug each other tightly to prevent cutting in line.
In this frenzy, Bao's friend Commander Cai did not hesitate to be pinched by the valve in order to help Bao, and finally Bao's successful purchase of the warrant, four months later, its value soared 160 times, and Bao's became a veritable "Mr. Bao".
In the cultural square of that era, the eyes of young people were full of thirst for wealth, and they believed that as long as they worked hard, they could seize the opportunities of the times.
Charlie Munger once said, "The macro is our responsibility, the micro is our stage", but for the young people of the 1990s, the opportunity they felt was far more enticing than that.
In their eyes, the macro is the shared cake, and the micro is the personal cream. As long as you act, you can capture wealth; Just run, you can enjoy the abundance.
Ping An Bank once counted the age distribution of bank deposits, and found that:
The post-50s account for 12% of the deposits, the post-60s account for 25%, the post-70s account for up to 33%, while the post-80s account for only 20%, and the people born after the 90s account for only 8% of the total savings.
It can be seen that 72% of the deposits are in the hands of people born in the 50s and 70s, which just reflects the rapid economic development since the 90s of the last century, so that this generation has accumulated more wealth.
With the progress of the times, it is time for the post-90s and post-00s to start accumulating wealth. However, after 40 years of reform and opening up, the basic living needs have been in line with international standards, but the post-90s and post-00s have chosen to lie flat.
Some netizens said, why can't I lie flat? I feel sick when I see internet platforms leading consumption by providing consumer loans and other measures. The Internet platform pretends to be your acquaintance and friend and gives you a spending limit, which is actually an overdraft of my future.
The choice of these young people is not that they are born to lie flat, not to work hard, not to even get married, not to have children, but in fact the reality of the situation makes them feel very stressed.
Students from Tsinghua University and Peking University choose to work in the urban management of neighborhood committees because of stability; American Ivy League graduates choose to take the preparation test for safety.
In 2019, the number of applicants for the national public service exceeded 1 million, reached 2 million in 2022, and approached 3 million in 2024.
Even in the cold plateau area, a position offered by the Ningxia Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics had 3,572 applicants, and the admission rate was even lower than that of Tsinghua University.
In order to reduce the financial burden and to give those who are able the opportunity to take risks and start their own businesses, Jiangsu Province allows civil servants to retain their establishment and return to their units after three years at sea, and continue to enjoy the social insurance paid by their employers.
Despite the introduction of such a good policy, it did not cause much repercussions, and the news did not continue to spread later.
Speaking of Mr. Munger's famous sentence, macro is the responsibility that each of us must bear, micro is where we can make a difference, the reality is that macro high housing prices and high cost of raising babies make everyone's responsibility heavy, so micro efforts become not worth it, and directly choose to lie flat.
For the post-90s and post-00s, if you were given a chance to travel to the era of flowers, how would you choose?
In the play, Po said: "The times are advancing rapidly, and I don't want to be just a bystander!" ”
On January 17, 1992, when the winter snow in Beijing had not yet disappeared, the 88-year-old Deng Gong stepped on the southbound train, and in the following month-long journey, he passed through Wuchang, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shanghai and other important cities.
In the Shenzhen International Center Building, Deng Gong had an in-depth understanding of the actual situation of Shenzhen's reform and opening up and economic construction, expressed a high degree of satisfaction with the achievements made, and put forward a resounding viewpoint: "Reform and opening up requires greater courage, and we must dare to try and make breakthroughs in the right direction, adhere to the correct ones, and correct the mistakes in a timely manner."
After the southern tour speech, Wu Renbao of Huaxi Village responded quickly, convened a meeting of village cadres overnight until 2 o'clock in the morning, and decided to mobilize all funds to hoard raw materials.
On the one hand, he did not hesitate to borrow at high interest rates, and on the other hand, he actively sought indicators and rushed to purchase aluminum ingots.
At that time, Huaxi Village purchased aluminum ingots at more than 6,000 yuan per ton, and soared to 1 per ton in just three months80,000 yuan.
Prior to this southern tour, the founder of "Fool Guazi" was imprisoned for hooliganism.
In his speech, Deng Gong specifically mentioned that in the early days of rural reform, Anhui appeared'Fools'The issue was widely controversial, and although some people moved him because of his million-dollar profits, Deng Gong insisted that he could not do so, so as not to shake the determination of reform and the stability of the policy.
A month later, Nian Guangjiu was finally acquitted and became one of the symbols of the development of the private economy, known as the "primrose of reform".
According to the statistics of the China Business Times, around 1992, at least 100,000 party and government cadres joined the business world, and more than 10 million people chose to retain their original positions to conduct business activities, and these people became the pioneers in the exploration of China's modern enterprise system.
The vast majority of entrepreneurs who are now on the list of China's richest people started their businesses during this period, among which the famous "92 faction" entrepreneur group, including Pan Shiyi, Feng Lun, Yu Minhong, Li Ning and others, the enterprises they founded are still the leading companies in various industries.
Feng Lun, who once served as the National System Reform Commission, resolutely went to Hainan in May 1992, gave up his iron job and bravely entered the real estate industry.
1992 was also a year of concentrated rise of China's real estate giants, with well-known enterprises such as Greenland, Country Garden, and Wanda being established one after another.
In hotels and restaurants, people holding big brothers pass on all kinds of investment information, such as a certain project is in urgent need of tens of millions of funds, promising a return rate of up to 70% by the end of the year, and inviting them to participate in investment.
Since 1992, China has achieved the feat of GDP growth of more than 10% for four consecutive years, and the total GDP has increased from 2.2% in 19912 trillion yuan climbed rapidly to more than 9 trillion yuan in 1999.
In that era when the monthly income was only 100 yuan, Ah Bao in the flowers, under the guidance of his uncle, boldly borrowed 10,000 yuan for investment, and this amount was made up by his friend selling his wife's gold chain.
The tide of reform and opening up has inspired countless ordinary people like Bao to pursue the dream of wealth, and created many myths of getting rich.
In order to deepen reform and promote development, Premier Zhu Rongji once said firmly: "I am willing to carry the coffin forward, and whether I am facing a landmine array or an abyss, I will forge ahead with indomitable determination and push forward reform without hesitation." ”
That's right, that era was indeed in full swing.
This TV series not only allowed the post-60s and post-70s generations to relive their youth and stimulate their passion and enthusiasm, but also allowed the post-90s and post-00s to see the arduous process of China's economy being able to get to where it is today, relying on the continuous progress of the characters of that era and the tenacious struggle of countless ordinary people.
However, the post-90s and post-00s may feel more regret after "Flowers".
Because the period of rapid economic growth in China has passed, the urbanization dividend has basically disappeared, and the negative impact of high housing prices has begun to appear.
The rapid development of the manufacturing industry has faced the dilemma of slowing down, and solving this problem is almost a seemingly unsolvable and difficult test question for this generation of young people.
In the face of these difficulties and challenges, the post-90s and post-00s still have great potential and opportunities. While economic growth may no longer be as impressive as it once was, China's economy is still evolving and transforming, with new industries and areas of innovation emerging emerging to the fore.
With their wisdom and creativity, this generation of young people can actively respond to challenges, find opportunities suitable for their own development, and make positive contributions to the progress and development of society.
Recently, Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast China, mentioned the challenges facing the economy in his speech.
He pointed out that the post-60s and post-70s generations hold most of their savings, and the post-80s generations work hard to repay the mortgage and raise their children, and dare not resign easily, while the post-90s generation is difficult to save money, and their wages are only enough to maintain their lives.
Fupeng said that if a red envelope of 20,000 yuan is given to young people, they don't know what they will use it for, but if a red envelope of 20,000 yuan is given to the elderly, they may use the money to buy daily necessities and then rest on time. Therefore, the elderly have money but do not spend it, while the young people want to spend it but do not have it, which brings two drags.
Young people's lack of money can drag down consumption. The post-90s generation lacks funds, cannot buy concert tickets or buy brand-name bags, and cannot afford to buy a house, so they are reluctant to have children.
Young people's financial woes can also be a drag on investment. The post-60s and post-70s generations have passed the age of risk-taking, and people in their 60s who hold 10 million in their hands are more willing to deposit funds in the bank or buy fixed income products.
However, if a 35-year-old also has 10 million in his hand, who would just keep his money in the bank? Even if you don't start a business, at least you will dare to buy some**or**.
Indeed, not only are young people facing economic hardship, but their numbers are decreasing, and the ageing population is further weighing on consumption and investment.
In 1980, the median age in China was only 22, compared to 30 in the United States, and by 2023, the median in China rose to 39, compared to 37 in the United States.
According to **, by 2050, the median age in China will be 49, compared to 42 in the United States.
Ageing makes us feel like time is flying. In 2023, the Chinese population will decrease by more than 2 million, which is equivalent to the total population of cities of Weihai and Zhenjiang. We worked hard to prepare a large table of food, but when it was served, we found that there were fewer people dining.
According to the World Bank, the increase in a country's working-age population (20 to 65 years old) is highly correlated with the growth rate of the country's real GDP.
We know that Japan signed the Plaza Accord in the mid-1980s, which led to an increase in the value of the yen and changed the country's economic trajectory.
But few people know that the mid-80s happened to be a turning point when the number of Japan's working population began to decline after years of plateau.
Coincidentally, it took 23 years for Japan to bottom out and start until 2013, and it was in 2013 that the number of people in the Japanese labor force began to rise.
Some people say that China is experiencing a trend of Japanization, and it is true that our debt ratio and aging trend are very similar to those of Japan in the 1990s, but the biggest difference between us and them is that we can learn from Japan's experience to cross the river.
Now is the most precious moment, and we cannot afford to live a 30-year sluggish economy like Japan did in the past.
What's more, we are still a developing country, and if we choose to lie flat at this time, it means that we will never be able to get out of the middle-income trap and become a developed country.
Therefore, we must cherish the present opportunity and not repeat the mistakes of Japan.
Young people need to take action and strive for their future, not only to improve their own economic strength, but also to contribute to the development of the country.
Only in this way will we be able to achieve our goal of overcoming the middle-income trap and moving towards the path of development.
Current data shows that there are about 500 million households in China, and according to relevant agency estimates, about 60% of them, that is, nearly 300 million households, are burdened with mortgage pressure, with a total loan amount of about 50 trillion yuan.
This suggests that the past path may indeed have spawned a housing bubble that left many households with a heavy debt burden.
However, at this point in time, these 300 million families are not completely unable to repay their loans, they are still struggling and are seen as pillars of hope for the country's future.
In 2023, the number of foreclosure houses in the country will reach about 4 million, although this number is insignificant compared to the 300 million households with mortgages, which means that the vast majority of families with mortgages are still insisting on working, actively repaying their loans, and have not completely given up resistance due to economic pressure.
For example, the number of Meituan delivery riders has grown from 2.95 million in 2020 to about 7 million today, including middle-aged people who joined after losing their jobs, and undergraduate graduates who chose to engage in food delivery when their job search was fruitless.
Economists have suggested that they could consider paying for affordable housing in houses that have depreciated sharply, and this proposal has sparked widespread social discussion.
Regardless of the policy direction, the affordable housing system has gradually become an important direction for the development of China's real estate market in the future, and its core goal is to ensure that ordinary people will not lose their motivation and determination to fight due to high housing prices, so that everyone who is still "squirming" can feel the support of the society, and is expected to regain confidence in the face of difficulties and continue to move forward.
However, if housing prices continue to fall sharply, the concern is that those who are still struggling to support themselves may be forced to choose to "lie flat" due to the loss of their ability to repay their loans.
Indeed, in the era of flowers, the real estate industry has developed rapidly, and business transactions are also carried out in prosperous places, such as the Yellow River Road.
Now our focus has shifted to high-end manufacturing, which requires the prosperity of places like Zhongguancun and Financial Street.
To achieve prosperity, we need risk-taking entrepreneurs and ordinary people who are not willing to lie flat, high housing prices can be alleviated by affordable housing, and high-risk entrepreneurship needs to be protected by legalization.
Recently I read Musk's biography and I felt unsettled. Innovative entrepreneurs like Musk have become the richest man in the world, but he still travels between major cities in the United States and his subsidiaries every day, sleeping only three or four hours a day.
And what about the entrepreneurs of our country? Lately they seem to be unusually quiet, some have been waiting abroad for a long time, and some are seeking stability and safety. What exactly are they waiting for?
Despite the introduction of a series of policies for private enterprises, they still seem to lack a down-to-earth and determined.
Finally, I would like to end with a line from "Flowers": "The goal is never far away, step by step, day by day, just go all out, and leave the rest to time." ”
This quote tells us that as long as we keep working hard and go all out to pursue our goals every day, the rest of the results will be decided by time.
Whether it is an entrepreneur or an ordinary person, as long as we persevere, we believe that there will be better development in the future.