China and the United States are racing, and the United States is containing
Through a long-term follow-up study of U.S.-China relations, the RAND think tank concluded that China is committed to effectively managing U.S.-China relations in order to gain a competitive advantage without compromising other strategic objectives, especially those in the economic sphere.
In other words, China is focused on its own development and continues to grow its strength; As the country's strength increases, so does its position in the competition. It is worth noting that the US policy of containment has long been launched and has adopted different means in different historical periods.
Before Bush Sr., the United States did not take the relationship between the major powers to heart. Bush Sr., who was elected to the United States in 1988, previously served as a U.S. staff member to the United Nations and director of the U.S. Liaison Office in China, and he fought in the Pacific War as a pilot in World War II, where he was almost captured by the Japanese.
In February 1989, the elder Bush began his first foreign visit after serving as the first foreign country, and the first stop was China, which broke the tradition that the first stop of the United States' foreign visit must be a Western country.
It can be said that the elder Bush's posture is very friendly, but this does not mean that the United States is sincerely friendly to China. In fact, from Nixon to Carter, from Reagan to Bush, they all served the United States, and everything was based on American interests.
George H.W. Bush used to be the director of the CIA, and if you expect the "director" to be good to you, it is like "seeking skin with a tiger."
U.S. policy toward China has always been based on maximizing its national interests. Although it seems to be friendly to China on the surface, it is actually out of consideration for its national grand strategy.
On the issue of dealing with China, the United States has adopted a strategy of "engagement + containment", hoping to bring about changes in China through pressure. This strategy stems from the elder Bush, who has worked in China for many years and has an in-depth understanding of China.
However, when China's reform and opening up made initial achievements, he felt threatened and decided to impose sanctions and accusations against China, including intellectual property issues, which were all means for the United States to maintain its hegemonic position.
In 1990, the elder Bush showed firm determination in the "Gulf War." The legitimacy and legitimacy of the war cannot be questioned by other countries, since Iraq's aggression against Kuwait was preemptive.
However, the elder Bush did not focus only on the war itself, he paid more attention to the far-reaching effects of the war. For China, the most important impact of the war is oil ** from 18$9 soared to $50.
Because the fledgling manufacturing country needs to bear the large amount of oil, which will undoubtedly increase the cost of its development and slow down its development. In the past, the United States contained the Soviet Union by lowering its oil **; Now, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the surge in oil has become a means for the United States to restrain the manufacturing industry of a large country and delay its development process.
However, despite the fact that the oil industry is still a major country with its strong human resource advantages, it produces high-quality and low-cost goods to promote its own development. During the George H.W. Bush era, American politicians would denigrate "Made in China" no matter what the occasion.
At the same time, Bush Sr. took advantage of the dominant position of the United States and used the "excessively large surplus" as an excuse to force the big powers to "buy US Treasury bonds," that is, the big powers "lend" the wealth they earned to the United States.
This is the reason why large countries hold a large amount of "US debt". Judging from the current situation, there is no doubt that the United States will most likely default on its debts in the future. In 1992, when the elder Bush was about to end his term of office, he approved the one-time delivery of 150 F-16 fighters to the "island." This was an act of flagrantly violating the "communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations," and its purpose was obvious.
Clinton was a "wilted" guy who left after the end of Bush's term, not because of poor work performance, but because the domestic economic situation was difficult to maintain.
In the United States, the Republican Party** generally does not perform well in domestic affairs and the economy is not doing well; The Democrats, on the other hand, are better at home and have a more stable economy.
The elder Bush represented the Republican Party in the election campaign and served in the "Gulf War" and handled foreign affairs properly; However, in the area of internal affairs, many difficulties and challenges have been encountered.
As a result, he was defeated by Clinton in the midterm elections, ending his ** term. During his tenure as a leader, Clinton visited China and expressed his favorable feelings for China in high-profile interviews and university speeches.
In addition, the main negotiations on China's accession to the "WTO" also took place during the Clinton period, so everyone has a good impression of this young and romantic **.
After Clinton took office, the United States stepped up its intervention in the maritime affairs of major powers. On July 23, 1993, the United States interfered with and inspected China's "Yinhe" cargo ship on the grounds that it was "carrying prohibited chemicals." This is undoubtedly a crude violation of a country's sovereignty.
Even though the highest level said at the time that the act was normal business ** and there were no contraband, the United States insisted on inspection. China was forced to agree to the inspection due to the disparity in strength, but it turned out that the accusations of the United States were wrong, which was undoubtedly a slap in the face to the United States.
On 7 May 1999, our embassy in Yugoslavia was bombed by a number of bombs dropped by United States fighter jets on the grounds that "the map was wrong". This incident took place during Clinton's second term in the United States.
Despite China's repeated strong **, no country has criticized the United States. These incidents have shown that the United States is hegemonist and coarsely involved in other countries, and that it cannot ignore the threat to international peace and stability.
There is no justification for the United States to unreasonably suppress China in the international arena. In terms of this, the United States has to review the "most-favored-nation status" every year, as if it were a gift from China.
In terms of science and technology, the United States maintains a strict blockade, and key technologies will never be given to China, and they are only willing to ** outdated products, such as "522 Radio", which was a product of the US Army during the Korean War, and later sold to the Chinese Navy during the Clinton era.
The main reason why Clinton dared to act so boldly was that with the collapse of the Soviet Union, they could shift their focus to Asia. During the Clinton period, China's accession to the WTO played a role in promoting China's development, but Clinton's reasons for persuading the US Congress were:
1.As a large agricultural country, the United States has a huge market demand, how can we not enter this market? 2.With the world's largest number of high-quality workers, vast amounts of undeveloped land, and efficient efforts, what better place to invest in capital than here?
3.As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and the strongest presence in Asia, can the United States' global strategy still be called a "global strategy" without its cooperation? 4.Many of the "revolutions" of the United States in the world have been successful, and this can only be achieved after deep contact.
How can it go smoothly without cultivating strength there? To think of it, to be with them. Therefore, Clinton finally persuaded Congress to adopt a bilateral agreement between China and the United States on WTO accession after arduous negotiations with major powers.
However, the strait crisis triggered by the visit also occurred during Clinton's term of office. Clinton was a "wilted" man.
Replacing Clinton as the leading person in the United States is Republican George W. Bush. During the eight years of Clinton's administration, the U.S. economy recovered and the country's wealth increased.
Therefore, after taking office, George W. Bush decided to expand his influence around the world. In November 2000, George W. Bush was successfully elected as the 54th term of the United States as the Republican candidate.
However, on April 1, 2001, shortly after he moved into the White House, an EP-3 electronic intelligence reconnaissance plane of the U.S. Navy collided with a Chinese J-8II fighter over the waters near Hainan Island.
This incident shows that the US side has begun to actively prepare for something, because approaching and reconnoitring is an extremely provocative act in peacetime. Although the United States does not care about the perception of the outside world, it is always concerned about its own preparations.
On September 11, 2001, the events of 9/11 shocked the world, which caused a fundamental shift in the foreign strategy of the United States, which changed to "counter-terrorism".
In order to combat terrorism, the United States carried out a number of military operations, such as military strikes against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the war against Iraq, which overthrew the Saddam regime.
However, during the Obama administration, the United States gradually reduced its military operations and focused more on the end of the war in Afghanistan. At the same time, Obama's China strategy is fraught with contradictions and hesitations.
During Obama's presidency, the United States faced an economic crisis, and he tried to reform health care, but it was difficult because of financial problems.
The big countries have made remarkable progress, especially after being suppressed by the United States several times before, and have further strengthened their national defense modernization. Therefore, Obama decided to increase the pre-counterterrorism containment efforts and implement the "pivot to Asia" strategy, transferring the United States from the Middle East, Afghanistan and other places to Asia.
In addition, Obama is troubled by the rapid development of economic problems in accordance with international rules under the framework of the WTO. Therefore, he proposed the "TPP", that is, the "Trans-Pacific Partnership", aimed at creating a new international economic organization that excludes the great powers, replacing the "WTO", in order to cope with the dilemma of the United States in it.
Fourth, the radical change of US policy In 2017, Trump, a businessman, became the US **, and his slogan of "America First" attracted global attention.
He abolished the "TPP" and imposed technological containment on ZTE and Huawei. The U.S. has imposed huge fines on ZTE and smeared Huawei globally, even ordering Canada to arrest Huawei executives.
These measures show the radical changes in the international policy of the United States.
1.Trump has suppressed the economies of major countries by imposing tariffs and signing new bilateral agreements to pursue the greatest immediate interests. 2.Trump and his team pursued an "America First" strategy, naïve in their relations with major powers, and used the "island" issue to force concessions.
3.After the outbreak of the pandemic, Trump's handling led to a lot of jokes. 4.In January 2021, the Biden team, made up of the establishment elite, came to power, and they had to face the challenge of developing a strategy for China.
On March 18, 2021, the High-Level Strategic Dialogue was held in Anchorage, Alaska, USA. Biden is trying to get countries to abandon modern industrial manufacturing in favor of cheap products for the United States.
They have adhered to Trump's tariff policy, imposed a 5G blockade and high-tech blockade on Huawei, and intensified their provocations against China over the island dispute. Biden and his team are both professional and cunning, and they use the existing advantages of the United States to provoke war, control Europe, and weaken Russia.
At the same time, they have used the sensitivity of the island dispute to keep Northeast Asia in a certain state of tension, so as to implement a series of containment measures against the great powers, the most important of which is to grasp the oil of modern industry and control the brain chip of future industry.
In Biden's view, the modernization process of the great powers must be limited in these two aspects in order to slow down. When the great powers are unable to move forward, they will be forced to accept the American arrangement to become the factory of the United States, providing cheap consumer goods.
United States"Containment"The approach to the implementation of the strategy is controversial. In the next 30 years, they argue, the prospects for the development of great powers could be success, rise, stagnation or collapse.
After analysis, the think tank elite believes that great success and collapse are impossible, and most likely rise or stagnation. Therefore, in order to prevent great success among the great powers, the United States must now use its advantages.
1. The United States needs to invest heavily in high-tech industries at home, especially semiconductor manufacturing, so that these key core technologies can return to the country. In the future global competition, a country that cannot manufacture advanced chips will not be able to become a real world power and will not be able to gain an advantage in the military field.
2. The United States should join forces with Japan, South Korea, India and other countries to put forward a new strategic plan to replace the "One Belt, One Road" plan led by major powers. Because this new plan has real benefits for the countries along the route, other countries cannot oppose it, but can only compete.
Those who discredit the "debt trap" narrative cannot change the facts. 3. The United States needs to take strong measures to attract talents from major countries back to the United States. The United States still has the advantage of attracting talent, and the loss of talent is a loss for a big country and an advantage for the United States.
In terms of specific operations, the United States has a variety of ways, they are striking at major powers through "chip" technology, and exerting pressure in the economic field, using various geopolitical contradictions, especially cross-strait issues, to disrupt the pace of development of major powers.
In order to achieve its strategic goals, the United States has resorted to unscrupulous means, including hyping up the "theory of great power threat" and "the theory of responsibility of great powers," trying to isolate the big powers, supporting the "fifth column" to sabotage from within, frequently flaunting force at the gates of the big powers, and even carrying out covert sabotage on the borders.
These tactics put the great powers in a state of high tension. Although the great powers were aware of the intentions of the United States, they had been suppressed by the Soviet Union in the past, so they had a favorable opinion of the United States before.
However, the hegemonic behavior of the Soviet Union made the great powers decide to be self-reliant and work hard. Without the help of the world's big market, the big countries were still able to grow from being poor and white to the scale they are now.
After the reform and opening up, China has been struggling to move forward under the "business rules" of the West, accumulating a certain amount of national wealth. However, there are too many places for the state to invest, so priority is given to projects that must be guaranteed.
Even for the military, sacrifices have to be made. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has become increasingly conspicuous in its efforts to contain China, especially the Milky Way incident, the Gulf War, the 96 Crisis, the bombing of the embassy, and the plane collision in the South China Sea, all of which have deeply stimulated China's sense of crisis.
During the Clinton period, China joined the WTO, and the country took advantage of this rare opportunity to intensively carry out construction, and at the same time, foreign capital in China also received rich returns.
However, this situation did not last long, and by the end of Obama, the pressure was in full swing. In the face of Trump and Biden's total containment and immoral blockade, China has continued its strategy while becoming more determined to implement its previously deployed preemptive moves.
Major countries are already at the world's leading level in the field of new energy, which is in line with the global political consensus on solving the "climate problem". For major countries, the development of new energy will not only help reduce their dependence on oil, but also strengthen international competition in the field of new energy.
In the military aspect, the military strength of the great powers has been significantly improved, and although it is not yet comparable to the United States, it has formed a force that threatens the United States.
According to statistics, the average amount of equipment for individual soldiers in major countries is $13,000, which is not much different from $15,000 in the United States. At the economic level, the implementation of the "two-wheel drive" development model of the big country, and the advance layout of the "internal and external circulation" market, this forward-looking strategy, for the survival and development of the domestic industry provides a basic guarantee.
1.In agriculture, we must ensure that we have 1.8 billion acres of land to ensure our food security, not controlled by other countries. This policy is necessary because if we don't take control of our own survival, we will be stuck in the neck of others.
However, some people who have been bought by the West have always opposed this policy, and their intentions are very sinister. 2.In terms of "chip" technology, we started planning a few years ago.
Although the United States is now playing the "chip" card, it will take time for the United States to integrate the world, just as it will take time for major countries to develop "chip" technology. It's all about who is one step faster.
3.On the issue of the islands, we are not in a hurry, and if it really doesn't go well, we can get it back. However, the United States and the islands want to drag us into the war, so things have to be made out of a rut, which is a real headache for the United States.