It is forbidden to build new subways, and the metropolis is fully loaded
Major update: Harbin Metro expansion plan blocked! Recently, the second phase of the Harbin Metro development plan suffered a setback, according to the Municipal Bureau of Letters and Visits, because the city's debt ratio did not meet the approval standards, resulting in the grand idea temporarily shelved.
Since the opening of the first Metro Line 1 in 2013, Harbin has expanded three subway lines with the successive opening of Line 3. Usually after the completion of the first phase, major cities rush to push forward with follow-up projects, but Harbin's metro phase II declaration was made in 2017"Circular No. 52"Highway.
This *** issued guidance ("Circular No. 52"The construction conditions are strict, requiring a GDP of 300 billion yuan, a general public budget revenue of 30 billion yuan, and an urban population of 3 million.
This means that the fourth phase of Line 1, the second phase of Line 2, the first phase of Line 4 and the first phase of Line 5 in the second phase of the Harbin Metro project cannot move forward for the time being.
In 2018, Harbin's strength should not be underestimated, as a megacity, GDP and fiscal revenue have reached the standard, and the urban population exceeds 5 million. Even under the new standard of subway construction in 2021, Harbin won with 12 passenger intensity, which proves that its traffic demand is strong.
However, the revision of the second phase of the plan has not been easy, and some projects have been shelved due to debt risks. According to official figures, Harbin's debt ratio is surprisingly high after excluding hidden debt, and this figure is even more striking if hidden debt is included.
This may explain the blockage of approvals. Behind the construction of the subway, the cost is huge. The Baotou Metro, for example, was suspended due to huge investment, reflecting the gap with Baotou City's financial strength.
The second phase of the Harbin Metro was originally planned to cost 56.5 billion yuan, and the cost per kilometer was high. Unfortunately, Harbin's economic growth has slowed down in recent years, with GDP growth lagging behind the national average, and population loss is serious.
At the end of 2022, Harbin's total population slipped to 93950,000, showing a serious challenge. As a result, huge debts and economic realities have become a major consideration in the approval of metro projects.
What is less well known is that Harbin's fiscal revenue in 2014 was as high as 423500 million yuan, but since then it has been declining, and in 2022 it will even fall below the 30 billion mark.
At the same time, Harbin's debt burden has risen like a rocket, and by the end of 2023, the statutory debt has reached a staggering 3,253500 million yuan. In the face of such severe financial difficulties, huge investment projects such as subways do need to be treated with caution.
The construction of the subway is huge, such as the fifth phase of the Shenzhen Metro single line needs to invest 195.2 billion yuan, and the cost per kilometer exceeds 1 billion. Operating costs should not be underestimated, and in 2022, the profitability of 32 metro cities across the country will only account for a minority, and metro investment is undoubtedly a difficult problem for cities with weak economic foundations.
Overextension will only increase debt pressures. The halt to the second phase of the Harbin subway seems to confirm previous rumors that some provinces are restricting subway construction. It is reported that 12 provinces, including Tianjin, mainly in the west and northeast, are prohibited from building new urban rail transit projects, and their debt ratios are among the highest, such as Qinghai and Guizhou.
This shows that in the context of fiscal austerity, metro project decisions must be made more carefully.
The second phase of the Harbin Metro has been hampered by high debt, which bodes well for approval difficulties in areas with higher debt risks. According to statistics, although more than 30 cities have actively submitted new subway plans this year, so far, only a few cities such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Changzhou have been approved.
It is foreseeable that new metro projects in most cities may be rejected. In the next few years, it will be almost impossible to build a new subway unless the city's passenger flow is already up to a rigid standard.
According to January data, it reached 0. per kilometer per dayThere are only 17 major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen with more than 70,000 passengers, and the subway expansion road in the remaining 20 cities may face a severe test.
At this stage, even the basic subway construction plan has not been approved, and the outlook is bleak. Even huge cities like Quanzhou and Yantai, with economies of up to one trillion yuan, have a population of less than three million, and the progress of subway projects is struggling.
In fact, it is wise to control the construction of the subway moderately, because excessive development will exacerbate the local debt crisis, and it will be the people who will be under pressure in the end.