The central bank announced on February 20 that the loan market ** interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 345%, unchanged; LPR for more than 5 years is 395%, down 25 basis points from the previous month.
This is the highest reduction in history, as previous cuts were at most 15 basis points, but this time is eight months after the last cutA direct 25 basis point cut, which really surprised many people. It seems that this time it is to let everyone buy a house, which is really a strong medicine.
In fact, some analysts** have previously said that under the background of unchanged MLF operating interest rates, LPR is expected to be lowered, and the decline in LPR for more than 5 years may be greater than that of 1-year LPR.
As we all know, the reduction of LPR means that the mortgage interest rate of home buyers will usher in a new round of decline, and the loan can save a lot of money when buying a house, reduce the cost of buying a house, and effectively promote the stable development of the real estate market.
For those who want to buy a house, the cost of buying a house will be really reduced, and for those who have already bought a house, they will also be able to enjoy a reduction in mortgage interest rates in the future. Mortgage reductions will probably be achieved by 2025.
Although the good is still being released, but from the current market data, real estate is still in the adjustment stage, buyers are still not confident in the market, especially the lack of confidence in future income expectations, just look at the data of returning home during the Spring Festival this year, compared with the data of previous years, it is really much bleaker.
Let's take a look at last month's property market data:
In January, the overall transaction volume of the property market was ** month-on-month, with a significant month-on-month decline of 2806%, year-on-year **1251%, and all first-tier cities decreased year-on-year.
Among them, the transaction area of second-tier cities decreased significantly month-on-month, at 4273%, with different ranges in all cities**, with Nanning seeing the largest decline at 7377%γ
The overall transaction area of first-tier cities decreased by 16 month-on-month23%, Guangzhou decreased significantly, 456%γThe total inventory area decreased slightly by 079%, Beijing fell the most, at 679%γ
In the face of the declining property market, some real estate companies in order to increase sales, seeing that the continuous war will only make buyers stay away, so they began to reverse the operation of price increases.
It is reported that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the average price of Huangpu in the central city of Shanghai was 16The 30,000-square-meter new real estate has entered the market, all of which are pure apartment residences, not involving style villasAmong them, the average price of the second phase of a project in Greentown increased by 12% to 1630,000 square meters. In this regard, some netizens said: Seeking progress while maintaining stability is undoubtedly the most appropriate expression of the pricing of Huangpu City's central ** market.
If we continue to pull the time forward, we will find that in mid-November 2023, the Chengdu property market will take the lead in ushering in price increases.
After obtaining the pre-sale certificate, Kunpeng Pavilion of Chengdu Luhu Eco-City directly broke through the price limit, and the highest unit price reached 840,000 square meters. It not only pierced the ceiling of the price limit, but also directly refreshed the first high of Chengdu's large flat.
Unexpectedly, when everyone was worried about how much to reduce the price, some real estate projects had begun to reverse the operation to increase the price to inventory, and the sales of the project would probably be good.
In fact, the property market is the same as **Many people have the mentality of buying up and not buying down, and only when they see the momentum of **, most of them will follow up and enter the market.
And as mentioned in the previous document, it is proposed to remove the land price restriction in land auctions and to cancel the plot ratio of 1 in the far suburbs0 limits, etc.
It is a signal that the land price is allowed, and the land price is driven by the house price, and then the price increase is used to destock, and it is quickly removed.
At present, the number of second-hand housing listings in most cities is continuous, and new houses are also constantly declining. If these problems are not solved, the best time to save them may be missed, and then it will not be as simple as being carried into the ICU, but may go directly to the morgue.
So will this round of "price increase and destocking" lead to a new round of skyrocketing housing prices? In fact, the author thinks it is unlikelyThe following three main trends are becoming more and more obvious.
Trend 1: The downward trend in population has not stopped.
On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released its annual economic and demographic data, with a GDP of 126 for the whole year of 202305 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%γ
Meanwhile, the national population at the end of 2023 is 140.9 billion people, a decrease of 2.08 million from the end of the previous year, and a negative growth for the second consecutive year after 2022.
Among them, the annual birth population was 9.02 million, and the birth rate was 639 In the middle of last year, many people extrapolated that the number of births fell below 8 million based on obstetric data, and no matter how optimistic the estimate data is, it will not exceed 9 million.
Trend 2: The urbanization rate is slowing down.
China's urbanization rate has reached 65%, entering the late stage of urbanization. This means that in the future, the number of people who will buy houses and settle in the city will be greatly reduced, especially in the vast third- and fourth-tier cities, without the support of population inflow, housing prices will collapse rapidly.
Trend 3: Developers' performance has shrunk significantly.
According to wind data, as of February 1, 54 of the 87 A-share real estate companies have released 2023 performance forecasts, of which only 6 are expected to achieve positive net profit growth for the whole year;
Although 8 real estate companies are profitable, their profitability has declined, and their net profits have fallen by more than 50% year-on-year; The performance of 49 real estate companies decreased year-on-year, of which 34 real estate companies had a net profit pre-loss, with a total pre-loss of about 48.6 billion yuan to 73 billion yuan.
On the whole, under the policy guidance of housing not speculation, the real estate industry will continue to play an auxiliary role in the economy, but it will not occupy a dominant position.
The goal of regulation is not to eliminate the real estate market, but to make it healthier and more stable. The ultimate goal is to stabilize housing prices, stabilize expectations, and promote economic development.
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