(Lao Zhu said pension-24-09).In China, people usually use the term "post-50s", "post-60s" and "post-70s" to divide generations, referring to people born in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, respectively. Historically, since the founding of the People's Republic of China, there have been three baby booms, with more than 20 million births each year, namely the "post-50s" (100 million people) born in 1952-1958 in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the "post-60s" and "post-70s" (300 million people) born from 1962 to 1975 after the "Great Leap Forward", and the "post-80s and post-90s" (300 million people) born from 1981 to 1997 after the reform and opening up. According to the law of population development, the births during the three baby booms will enter old age in the 2010s, 2020-2030s, and 2040-2050s respectively.
One of the core characteristics of China's aging is the intergenerational difference, and understanding the intergenerational transition is the key to grasping the market rhythm of China's pension industry. At present, China's elderly population is dominated by the "post-50s", and the "post-60s" and "post-70s" have not yet entered the threshold of aging. Comparing these two groups, in terms of the absolute number of people, the "post-50s" are far less than the "post-60s" and "post-70s". In terms of educational attainment, the "post-50s" are less likely to receive a better education than the latter, so their ability to accept new ideas and new things is relatively inferior to the latter.
Lao Zhu said that the pension -24-09) different age groups have different consumption levels, and intergenerational transformation is related to the pace of industrial development. From the perspective of consumption capacity and consumer awareness, the performance of the "post-50s" generation is relatively limited. The "post-60s" and "post-70s" generations are the first batch of middle class in New China, and their growth process coincides with the time node of reform and opening up, and they have accumulated relatively sufficient wealth in the rapid economic development of the past 40 years. Looking at the population pyramid, we can see that they are currently between 47 and 60 years old, and those born in 1962 will enter the old age stage around 2027, and the population peak of the entire age group will enter the old age stage around 2030-2035. According to CPFS survey data, in 2018, the per capita total household expenditure of China's "post-50s" was 13,636 yuan, which was lower than that of the "post-60s" and "post-70s" generations, and the overall consumption power of the "post-50s" was weak. Structurally, the proportion of health care and food in the expenditure of the "post-50s" is higher than that of other age groups, and the proportion of expenditure on entertainment and transportation is lower. Therefore, we believe that the pension industry as a whole has not yet ushered in the first era, and the rhythm of intergenerational differences and intergenerational transformation will drive the development of the pension industry segment to be differentiated.
At present, China implements the "9073" system, that is, 90% of the elderly care at home, and 7% of the elderly participate in community elderly care services; 3% participate in institutional pension services. 90% of the elderly live at home on the basis of social services is in line with China's national conditions, not only because China has a tradition of home care in history, but also because of the large population base of Chinese, high population density, and rapid aging, showing the characteristics of "old before getting rich", so home care can also share expenses with families, effectively saving pension costs. 7% of the elderly participate in community care for the elderly, and provide for the elderly through community care services; 3% of the elderly live in pension service institutions for centralized pension. This arrangement was first proposed in Shanghai in 2007, and then other provinces and cities have learned from it, and it has become the basic goal of China's pension system.
(Lao Zhu said pension-24-09).The policy mainly emphasizes making up for shortcomings, but it is not fully consistent with the trend of intergenerational transformation, the supply and demand blockages have not been solved, and it will take time for the market to mature. The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to expand the coverage of inclusive elderly care services, develop community elderly care service institutions, improve the supporting facilities of community elderly care services, actively promote the reform of public institutions for elderly care, fully mobilize social forces to participate in the construction of the elderly care service system, and set a series of quantitative targets including "9 million elderly care service beds by 2025". The "14th Five-Year Plan" also proposes to develop and expand the elderly products industry and promote the scientific and technological and intelligent upgrading of elderly products.
But even so, in the face of the "post-50s" mainly aging group, large-scale generational transformation has not yet come, and the market is in the early stage of growth. We believe that the more severe aging and the dilemma of "getting old before getting rich" will still lead to an imbalance between supply and demand in the future, inhibiting the further development of pension services and elderly products. The market is expected to usher in a blowout development after the "post-60s" and "post-70s" groups with more people, relatively stronger consumption power and a higher proportion of middle-class people enter the old age. (Lao Zhu said pension-24-09).