Yang Delong is the chief economist of Qianhai Open Source and a director of the China Chief Economist Forum
He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and vice premier of the Communist Party of China, attended the national conference on "Deploying and Visiting Listed Companies and Promoting the High-quality Development of Listed Companies" in Beijing on January 29. This meeting reflects the great importance that the national level attaches to the high-quality development of the capital market and listed companies. It has released an important signal that the high-quality development of listed companies will help the high-quality development of the economy and the smooth operation of the capital market, which is of great significance for stabilizing the expectations of the capital market and boosting investor confidence. The improvement of the quality of listed companies is the foundation for the long-term and healthy development of the capital market. Improving the quality of listed companies is also a task that the CSRC has been promoting. In recent years, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has continued to optimize the structure of listed companies, promoted the deepening and implementation of the first-class issuance registration system at the entry end, strengthened the supervision of issuance, adhered to the priority of quality, and continued to consolidate and deepen the normalized delisting mechanism at the export end. Through the survival of the fittest, let the good companies stay in the market. In this way, it can promote the overall improvement of the quality of listed companies and cultivate high-quality head listed companies. Vice Premier He Lifeng pointed out that listed companies are an important micro foundation for high-quality economic development, and promoting the high-quality development of listed companies will help high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, and help enhance market confidence. It is necessary to clarify the goal orientation, and take the promotion of the improvement of the performance of listed companies and the restoration of investment willingness as an important measure to promote economic stability and progress, to promote stability, and to establish first and then break down.
China's listed companies cover 90 major industries of the national economy, which is the "basic disk" of the real economy and an important micro foundation for high-quality economic development. At present, China's capital market is at the bottom of history, and by improving the quality of listed companies, the expectation of promoting economic recovery is enhanced, which is conducive to activating the capital market. It is of great significance to boost investor confidence and promote the capital market from the first to the reverse, which is of great significance for the construction of a long-term and healthy development of the capital market. By improving the quality of listed companies, it is also to improve the investability of the market, so that the majority of investors can make money by buying, buying, and achieving property income through investment and investment, which is also a fundamental measure to boost consumer confidence and spending power. Building a financial power is inseparable from a prosperous capital market, and listed companies are the cornerstone of the capital market, and it is very important to promote the long-term healthy development of the capital market by improving the quality of listed companies.
At present, China's capital market is still in the position of the historical bottom area, and it can be seen from some market bottom characteristics, such as the new ** issuance is close to the freezing point, and even some new ** issuance zero subscription phenomenon, which has not appeared before, indicating that the market sentiment has reached the freezing point. Judging from the price-earnings ratio of the CSI 300, it has fallen to ten times, and many bottoms have bottomed out at about ten times in history. Recently, the policy support for the strength of the capital market has been increasing, and under the joint efforts of the policy, investor confidence is also expected to gradually recover. However, due to the fact that the A** field has appeared for three consecutive years, the trend of the market has been a process of bottoming downward, so it is still inevitable that there will be repeated ** at the bottom, and the long-short divergence will increase. Therefore, the market is both bottoming out and bottoming, and the process of grinding the bottom repeatedly, so it is recommended that investors have confidence and patience.
From the perspective of stabilizing economic growth, the recent efforts to support economic recovery are increasing, including the current relatively large risk area of the property market, and the policy side is also constantly releasing positive signals. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed that in view of the new situation of the current real estate market, each city can independently adjust the real estate regulation and control policies according to the city's policies. Guangzhou took the lead in relaxing, completely lifting the purchase restrictions on housing above 120 square meters. People from all over the country can go to Guangzhou to buy a house of more than 120 square meters. For Guangzhou citizens, there is no limit to the number of houses of more than 120 square meters, which will release a great rigid demand. For houses below 120 square meters, the corresponding number of units can be reduced by listing** or renting, that is, the number of newly purchased units can be increased. This is close to completely lifting the purchase restrictions. It is expected that after Guangzhou announced the relaxation of real estate purchase restrictions, other first-tier cities are also expected to follow suit, and eventually gradually realize the full relaxation of real estate market transactions, so that the real estate market transactions return to the market, which also preliminarily verifies the fourth of my top ten predictions in 2024, that is, the administrative restrictions on real estate sales will be gradually lifted, and the financial sector will increase its support for real estate enterprises, effectively resolving the systemic risks of the real estate market. As a pillar industry of the national economy, real estate is conducive to economic recovery once the risk is gradually resolved.
To do value investment, fundamentally speaking, is to buy a good industry, a good company, and choose a good one. But under normal circumstances, good industries and good companies are not cheap, and only when there is a downturn, or even a stock market crash, will there be good. I remember Warren Buffett participating in CCTV's talk show in China, when the host asked, what are his principles for investment success? Warren Buffett said that the first is to treat ** as the company's shareholder certificate, and to buy ** is to buy a part of the company and be a shareholder of the company. The second is the margin of safety, which is that the company you buy is much lower than the intrinsic value of the company, which is the key to success. This is also the essence of value investing that Buffett learned from his teacher Graham. For many people, it's still a string of numbers, or a number that beats all the time. In this way, it is difficult to hold it in the downturn. If you buy the first is to buy the company, as long as the fundamentals of the company have not changed, it is still a good company, even if it is the best, there is no essential impact on the company's operation. That is to say, most listed companies do not actually have reflexivity, and the stock price does not affect the operation of the enterprise, so that there is no need to worry about the business operation being too affected, once the economic cycle is up, the operation of these good companies will improve, and the stock price may also hit a new high.
Leave an adequate margin of safety when investing to reduce investment risk and increase certainty of investment returns. Investors should look for investment opportunities with low valuations and high growth potential, and when they are below their intrinsic value. In-depth analysis of corporate fundamentals and a clear grasp of market trends are very important. Only by having a deep understanding of a company's fundamentals and industry outlook can we accurately assess its intrinsic value and when it is below intrinsic value. The margin of safety is one of the core principles for achieving a successful investment. By leaving an adequate margin of safety, investors can reduce investment risk and increase the certainty of returns. But investors should be patient and wait until there is a clear mispricing in the market. At this time, the investor can obtain an adequate margin of safety by *** well below the intrinsic value. Through long-term investment and value investment, we can share the growth of enterprises with sustainable competitive advantages and good management, so as to truly obtain good returns. At present, many high-quality companies have been mistakenly killed, relative to the high point may only be two or three folds, this is undoubtedly a good time to layout, it is recommended that investors conduct in-depth fundamental analysis, and wait patiently for the arrival of the next round.