The United States has calculated successfully! China's 60 billion lithography machine has just arrived, and the problem has broken out
Since 2023, Chinese chipmakers have begun to import semiconductor equipment such as lithography machines on a large scale.
According to relevant data, in November 2023 alone, Chinese manufacturers imported 42 lithography machines, with a total value of more than 800 million yuan. It is expected that the total import value of lithography machines will exceed 60 billion yuan in 2023.
You know, China's lithography machine imports will not exceed 20 billion yuan in 2022, which means that China's lithography machine imports will increase by up to three times.
This is not only because of the rapid development of Chinese chips, the demand for semiconductor equipment such as lithography machines has increased sharply, but also because many domestic chip manufacturers are worried that they will not be able to import in the future, so they have begun to stock up on a large scale.
On January 1, Dutch lithography giant ASML announced that the shipping licenses for two of its DUV lithography machines had been revoked. According to sources familiar with the matter, this is because the United States contacted ASML to stop deliveries of some lithography machines to Chinese customers.
And, according to reports from the United States, export controls on semiconductor equipment will be stricter, adding a law"Barriers", restricting the prohibited transportation of lithography parts and the provision of after-sales services. This basically means that some of the lithography machines that we spent $60 billion on may not be able to get follow-up maintenance services.
This will worry a lot of people. Does this mean that the lithography equipment we spend a lot of money on will become scrap, and the development of China's chip industry chain will be seriously affected?
The author personally believes that judging from the current situation, the details of whether the United States will change the ban are uncertain. If there were real restrictions on the transportation of parts and a ban on after-sales service, ASML would be the first to bear the brunt. After all, this is not only a loss of revenue for ASML, but also a loss of the company's reputation.
However, if the United States does change the details of the ban, we still have to buy it. After all, although the technology of domestic equipment manufacturers is developing rapidly, it will take a certain amount of time for them to fully achieve a breakthrough in localization. Crops in the field take time to grow, not to mention technological advances in advanced equipment.
This behavior of the United States seriously violates international rules and affects the normal development of the international chain. As the beneficiary of the current international Ejiao industry chain, this attitude of the United States is undoubtedly self-defeating.
What's more, ASML is clearly not keen on cooperating with U.S. export controls – after all, the Chinese market has become an important revenue for ASML**. The loss of the Chinese market basically means that it will be difficult to maintain the same level of income in 2024 as in the previous year.
It is foreseeable that ASML will continue to apply for maritime licenses and even some ways to circumvent export controls for some time to come.
What's more, if the U.S. restricts ASML's, China will have to commit to independent research and development.
Can not be introduced means that there is a large number of demand can not be met, this is a very broad market prospects, there will inevitably be a number of enterprises flocking to that market, the employment of related professionals will also drive more colleges and universities to open relevant courses, more students into the relevant professional study, can rely on the rapid development of market mechanisms.
The United States originally wanted to use semiconductor equipment to block the research and development of Chinese chips, but ASML miscalculated due to its unwillingness to cooperate with US export controls. It is also because of the large shipments of ASML that Chinese manufacturers are now stockpiling a lot of semiconductor equipment.
But in any case, we cannot count on American and Western companies, and only if we master the core technology ourselves, can we find another way to solve the problem once and for all. Obviously, some time ago, China's chips are doing this, and the rapid development of science and technology is enough to prove that China's chips have great power.
If you agree, please give a thumbs up and feel free to **, comment and share.