Two news continued over the weekend:
1) Full suspension of restricted shares**.
2) Adjust the market-based agreed declaration of refinancing securities from real-time availability to next-day availability.
The first is easy to understand, that is, restricted shares cannot be used as a source of securities borrowing and lending. There is also an important fine that no extension is allowed and must be returned before the expiration.
The second is for the refinancing market, which was originally a coupon that was financed on the same day, and it can be smashed directly, but now it can only be sold at least the next day. This is not just an extra day of coupons, in order to prevent the risk of a sharp rise, institutions even want to buy** for hedging. The sealing rate of the day** will also increase.
This is the progress of system construction, the original shareholders can be disguised through refinancing, institutions can borrow and lend securities to achieve T+0 (the new deal has increased the difficulty of quantitative institutions T+0 strategy wool), now the loopholes are filled, and individual traders have obtained a fairer environment.
But what determines the profit and loss of the short-term account is not the news, but the active capital station. (The market's reaction to the news cannot be simply linear extrapolation, in fact, you can also interpret it as short-term bearishness, because some quantitative institutions will cut their positions after the emergence of the new policy).
As mentioned in our weekly review: state-owned enterprises and central enterprises with Chinese prefixes, local stocks in Shanghai, and banking and financial stocks. Instead of electronics (chips), power equipment (photovoltaic new energy) is not food and beverage, medicine and biology.
The low point of the Shanghai Composite Index was not completely formed after the liquidation, but was formed after a series of actions by the national team to rescue the market. This is just a feast in the direction of the national team, and for other industry concept plates, the places that have not been completely cleared will continue to be under pressure, and there is no real market bottom.
Today, the sense of fragmentation between the different indices is still evident, and we are even seeing an avalanche of AI and PV.
At this point, we can draw two conclusions:
1) Marked by the first divergence of cross-border ETFs and contrarian demon stocks Shenzhen China A, the end of Wednesday and Thursday morning are still the most ideal entry points for the Chinese word head.
2) If there is no car that can be listed in time, then at least you should move closer to the basket chips with low valuation and high dividends, or continue to wait for signals from the sidelines. The worst option is to stand on the opposite side of active money and trade AI PV chips ......
Now we can make some more assumptions, will this kind of fragmentation continue? Growth Stocks When will spring come for track stocks?
Here's a little bit of personal opinion on the disk phenomenon:
1) ** After the fragmentation is too extreme, it will also revert to the mean.
2) Trees don't grow to the sky. The process of large ticket pulling up of central state-owned enterprises is relatively capital-intensive, and the liquidity is usually tight before the holiday, and transactional funds will also choose to leave. From this point of view, the expected value of the national brand should not be too high.
3) After too strong consistency, there has been negative feedback - such as today's Kaikai Industry, Shanghai Yilian, Cinda**...
Picture: Kaikai Industry.
4) Regarding the growth of track stocks, since it is the clearing stage, the ideal model on the disk should be to increase the volume + accelerate the kill, but today's GEM index trading volume has not been enlarged. When we can discuss the bottom, we can refer to the trend of the second Zhongzitou index last week.
5) Finally, there is a guess, since it is unlikely that the value of the large ticket directly pulls the small ticket to open, will it be a pullback, a small market homeopathic panic to complete the clearing, and then the bottom of the market appears?
6) At the trading level, it is still only suitable for short-term and not suitable for the pattern.