The Philippine Times of Manila reported on February 2 that the Philippine Coast Guard encountered little interference from the Chinese side as it escorted a ship carrying fresh supplies to resupply the stranded ship on Second Thomas Shoal. Even when the Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships met, there were no tensions. The Philippines tried to play up the incident, hyping up that it "almost encountered Chinese blocking", suggesting that the Philippines had won a "big victory" in the game with China.
The reality is not exactly what is reported. The Chinese Coast Guard revealed the truth of the incident in a notice issued by the Chinese Coast Guard, confirming that Philippine vessels were illegally transporting daily necessities to "beached boats", but the Chinese side supervised and controlled the whole process.
It is particularly noteworthy that the circular mentions "transportation of daily necessities", indicating that the personnel on the "beached boat" were only provided with some daily necessities, and not materials or equipment for repairing the broken ship. China's clear knowledge of the supplies may indicate that the Chinese Coast Guard or other relevant personnel have conducted detailed inspections in advance and confirmed that the supplies are in compliance before releasing them.
The report also mentioned that the Philippine ship was carrying "fresh supplies", which further corroborated the information in the China Coast Guard notice.
This also strengthens the possibility of Chinese personnel boarding the ship for detailed inspection. China's decision to allow Philippine ships to carry daily necessities may be based on the outcome of the eighth meeting of the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultative Mechanism on the South China Sea issue on January 17. At that time, the two sides agreed to manage the situation at Second Thomas Shoal. This could mean that the Philippines has promised China not to send repair supplies or equipment to the beached vessels, while the Chinese side has provided temporary arrangements for humanitarian reasons, and even required the Philippines to notify in advance and accept Chinese inspections before entering Second Thomas Shoal.
Some may find it difficult to accept and understand the decision to allow the Philippines to send supplies to "beached boats". This seems to prolong the stay of people who are illegally present and does not fundamentally solve the problem. In the game, this kind of "unsettled" may not be just a choice for individual people. To be clear, if the ship repair materials or equipment cannot be delivered, the Philippine "beached boat" may not be able to sustain itself for a long time, and the Chinese side can rightfully tow it away, or ask the Philippines to dispose of these scrap iron by itself.
The intra-Philippine struggle also forced Marcos to resolve the issue with China as soon as possible. For example, former Duterte opposes the opening of military bases to U.S. troops, while Cagayan Governor Mamba has sought cooperation with China, emphasizing that peace is essential for the neighboring Chinese province. The urgency of solving the problem lies not with China, but with the Philippines.
From the perspective of the game, the purpose of the United States' manipulation of the Philippines to create incidents in the South China Sea is to force China to lose its strategic focus and make it "make mistakes" in the South China Sea.
Similar to the Ukraine issue, this is a deliberate attempt by the United States to create tensions and trap China, but China now firmly holds the initiative in the situation in the South China Sea. Peace and stability in the South China Sea are crucial to resolving the Taiwan issue. If there is now a conflict with the United States in the South China Sea, although tactically it may win, it will still be a defeat at the strategic level. To solve the problem, it is still necessary to follow the principle of resolving the primary and secondary contradictions in turn, and it is not possible to distinguish between the primary and secondary contradictions or to make a mess. After the Taiwan issue is resolved, the issue in the direction of the South China Sea will basically be solved.
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