The remarks of Colonel Roman Svetan of the Reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have triggered a new round of military speculation: it is possible for Ukraine to encircle Crimea without US assistance. The audacity of this strategy cannot be overstated, after all, the Crimean peninsula has been a geopolitically sensitive area since it was annexed by Russia in 2014.
From the point of view of military geography, the Crimean peninsula does resemble a "war pot", and its geographical location makes it easy to defend and difficult to attack. However, the sharp reduction in the number of amphibious ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, mentioned by Colonel Svetan, may provide Ukraine with a certain strategic advantage. But even so, Ukraine still faces enormous challenges if it wants to achieve the encirclement of Crimea without external military assistance.
The redeployment of the Ukrainian army with the ammunition stocks of the Russian army
The current holes in the defenses of the Ukrainian army in Crimea are being closed by redeployment. Natalia Hook, a spokeswoman for the Southern Defense Forces, said the focus of the exercise was on the redistribution of air defense systems, which showed the importance that Ukraine attaches to air defense capabilities. At the same time, she also revealed that the location of the Russian army's ammunition stocks was mastered by the Ukrainian military, which undoubtedly increased the unease of the Russian army.
The Russian army had to reallocate ammunition stocks, which will undoubtedly have a certain impact on its combat plans. And the Ukrainian army can use this opportunity to weaken the combat effectiveness of the Russian army with precision strikes. This strategic contest is likely to continue for some time to come.
The continued Ukrainian assault on Crimea and the losses of the Russian army
The news of the destruction of the large landing ship "Kaiser Kunov" by the Ukrainian military is undoubtedly a major result of the recent continuous Ukrainian attack on Crimea. If the information of the spokesman of the Ukrainian military intelligence is true, then the Russian human losses in this incident will be enormous. This will not only deal a blow to the morale of the Russian army, but may also force Russia to reassess its military strategy in Crimea.
However, we also need to be soberly aware that even if Ukraine has achieved some tactical victories, it will still be difficult to completely change the situation in Crimea. After all, Russia has great military power, and the Russian army on the Crimean peninsula is by no means idle. Therefore, Ukraine needs to be cautious and avoid getting into an even greater predicament because of a momentary victory.
Looking ahead: Can Ukraine achieve a strategic breakthrough?
So, can Ukraine encircle Crimea without US assistance? This is still an unknown. While the Ukrainian army has achieved some superiority in some areas, overall, Russia still has overwhelming military power. Moreover, the geographical location and topographical conditions of the Crimean Peninsula also provide a natural defensive advantage for the Russian army.
Therefore, Ukraine needs to develop a more well-thought-out strategic plan and seek cooperation and support with other countries. Only then will it be possible for Ukraine to make substantial progress on the Crimean issue. Otherwise, Ukraine could be plunged into a protracted war with an unpredictable victory.
To sum up, Ukraine's plan to besiege Crimea, while bold and somewhat feasible, still faces great challenges and uncertainties. We need to keep an eye on developments in the region so that we can respond in a timely manner to new situations and problems that may arise.
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