Recently, with the strong expectation of bumper yields after the weather in South American producing areas improves, coupled with the continued progress of soybean harvesting in Brazil, the new soybean harvest will compete with US soybeans after the market, and the export sales of US soybeans are relatively slow, which makes the US soybean ** pressure decline, as of the evening of February 23, the main May contract of the US soybean futures price fell to 113825 cents bushel, has fallen to its lowest level since Nov. 13, 2020.
Expectations for a bumper soybean crop in South America are stronger.
Although the soybean production in Brazil was affected by drought and hot weather in the early stage, the soybean output in Brazil was expected to remain at 1400 million tons, of which 149.4 billion tons, up from 1 in the previous year54.6 billion tons, down 34%;The USDA estimates that Brazil's production is expected to be 15.6 billion tons, still in the market ** 1500 million tons above the level. Recently, with the gradual improvement of the weather in South America, it is conducive to the production of soybean crops in Argentina and Paraguay, so that their bumper yield is expected to be strong. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) * Argentina's soybean production in 2023 24 was 52.5 million tonnes, up 31.5 million tonnes or 150% from 21 million tonnes in 2022 and 2023; The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Argentina to produce 50 million tonnes of new beans; The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentina to produce 49.5 million tonnes of soybeans.
U.S. soybean export sales continue to be weak.
Brazil's 2023 24 soybean harvest progress stood at 29 as of Feb. 17, according to Brazil's National Commodities** company (CONAB).4%, up from 230%;As of Feb. 23, Brazil's soybean harvest progress in 2023 24 reached 38%, continuing to be higher than the 34 percent in the same period last year, according to the consultancy51% and the average of the same period over the past five years was 3595%。As the soybean harvest progress in Brazil continues, the new crop soybeans continue to compete with the U.S. soybean export market with its high cost-effective advantage after the market, resulting in the slow pace of U.S. soybean export sales. According to the USDA soybean export inspection report, the total number of soybean export inspections in the United States in 2023 and 2024 reached 3,196 in the week ending February 15, 202493.02 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 228%, in addition to strong competition in South American soybean exports and slow procurement progress in major importing countries, the good domestic crush demand in the United States is also an important reason.
The domestic soybean meal market will continue to decline under pressure.
After the new soybean harvest in Brazil, the pressure gradually highlighted, the weather speculation window narrowed after the production expectation is more clear, and the United States soybean exports compete to seize the market, the United States soybean exports continue to decline under pressure after the weakness, driving the cost of imported soybeans to follow, weakening the cost of soybean meal market support. After the Spring Festival, the consumer demand of the pig and poultry market is gradually light, and soybean meal is in a downward trend, feed breeding enterprises are cautious, mainly with the use of buying, wait-and-see psychology increases, in the case of soybean meal production gradually recovering but slow shipments, soybean meal will continue to be under pressure, in a weak fall.
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