In 2023, the cumulative sales of domestic gas tractors will be 1490,000 units (compulsory traffic insurance caliber, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 320%, a net increase of 1140,000 units, driving the national heavy truck industry from the cold winter to the warm spring. Such rapid growth has also made the industry more and more optimistic about its expectations for 2024. This article extends the long time line, reviews the overall performance of gas tractors from 2018 to 2023, and hopes to look at the future trend of the gas tractor market from a more objective and rational perspective.
Overall market and monthly sales trends in 2023
newsIn 2023, the sales of gas tractors will increase month by month from the low level at the beginning of the year, and reach the highest point in September240,000 units (of which only July fell month-on-month), and after October, it decreased month by month. Among them, the sales volume in January was only 3,000 units, a year-on-year increase of only 33%, and the growth accelerated from February to April, but the monthly sales did not exceed 10,000 units for the first time until May, and reached the highest point in the first half of the year in June20,000 units, with a cumulative sales volume of 5 in the first half of the year20,000 units, up 170% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, since August, the year-on-year growth rate soared to more than 600%, and the monthly sales volume was 240,000 units, 230,000 units, reaching the highest point in the month and falling rapidly. The cumulative sales volume in the second half of the year was as high as 980,000 units, up about 500% year-on-year. It is obvious that the sales trend of gas vehicles is strongly related to LNG**, and the gas price will gradually drop to a minimum of 4 yuan kg from March 2023, highlighting the operation economy of gas vehicles and stimulating the release of market demand. Since November, the north has entered the heating season, the gas price has reached 6-7 yuan, the operating economy of gas vehicles has declined, the enthusiasm of users to exchange has faded, and the market has weakened.
In December 2023, the sales volume of gas tractors will be about 6,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 75%; In the past January 2024, sales are expected to be more than 6,000 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. Although the year-on-year increase is huge, if you look at the sales data for many years, the current sales volume of about 6,000 units per month is higher than the sales during the three-year epidemic, but it has not recovered to the sales level before 2019, and the sales volume in December of the year are all around 8,000 units, about 30% higher than the current monthly sales. On the other hand, gas prices have not exceeded 7 yuan per kilogram since December, and gas prices in the northern region have continued to decline, even falling below 6 yuan kilograms, and the current gas price level has been the lowest point in many years and the same period.
Overall market review from 2018 to 2022
newsDomestic gas tractors have been developed for many years, but their sales did not begin to enter the fast lane until the second half of 2018, with the highest monthly sales of 110,000 units, which appeared in November. In 2019, it continued to maintain rapid growth, and the annual sales volume increased to 1080,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 92%; Due to the switch of gas vehicle emission standards to China VI on July 1, 2019, the industry rushed to overdraft the market in large numbers before the regulations were upgraded, and the monthly sales volume in June was as high as 370,000 units, setting the highest monthly sales record, and has remained so far; The overdraft of more than 30,000 units was only digested for more than three months, and by November 2019, the monthly sales of gas tractors recovered to nearly 10,000 units. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, vehicle travel was restricted, resulting in local capacity constraints, market demand further increased, and the annual sales volume was 1380,000 units, up 28% year-on-year.
Entering 2021, the industry is quite optimistic about the gas vehicle market expectations, and has carried out a large number of stockpiles before the Spring Festival. However, affected by various global factors, gas prices began to rise instead of falling in April, to more than 7 yuan kg in July, and then global gas prices soared, and domestic LNG also entered the ** range of more than 8 yuan kg. High gas prices have highlighted the disadvantages of high gas prices and high dead weight, the sharp decline in user operating profits, the sharp depreciation of second-hand cars, and the suppression of market demand, and the subsequent inventory digestion cycle of brands and dealers has also fallen into a two-year inventory digestion cycle. In 2021, the sales volume of gas tractors will only be 550,000 units, down 60% year-on-year; Sales volume in 2022 is 350,000 units, down 36% y/y.
Historical data and changes in the main sales regional markets
NEWSFrom the perspective of sales distribution by province over the years, about 90% of the sales of gas tractors are concentrated in the top 10 provinces, and the sales concentration of the top 5 provinces is about 75%. Key provinces such as Shanxi, Hebei, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Henan, Ningxia, Shandong and other provinces. Although the rankings of provinces fluctuate from year to year, the overall change is not significant. From the perspective of the national natural gas pattern, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other provinces are the main natural gas producing areas in China, and the northwest region is blessed with imported natural gas from Central Asia, with good gas sources and low costs. Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other provinces are dominated by industrial by-product gas and sea gas, and the overall gas price is about 0 higher than that of Shanxi and Northwest China3-0.5 yuan kg, these provinces are mainly the user groups of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mengxi coal transportation and the user groups operating the northwest route are biased towards gas vehicles. Central China, East China, South China gas prices are generally higher than the northwest region of about 1 yuan kilogram, comprehensive consideration of car prices, weight, high winter gas prices, ** tension and other factors, gas vehicles have no obvious economy, the current demand for gas vehicles is still very little.
It is also worth noting that Xinjiang and Sichuan used to mainly focus on CNG models, but with the gradual improvement of LNG infrastructure in the past two years, most of the market demand has quickly switched to LNG models in 2023. The sales of gas vehicles in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces will increase significantly in 2023, but the base is still relatively low, with only two or three thousand units for the whole year.
The proportion and upgrade trend of each horsepower segment over the years
newsPower upgrade is a continuous trend in China's truck industry for many years, but the power upgrade of gas tractors is faster. According to the data, in 2018, the main sales power of gas tractors was below 440 horsepower, accounting for 94% of the power rangeBy 2020, the proportion of 440-480 horsepower will grow rapidly to 78% and will remain there until 2022In 2023, the demand for more than 480 horsepower will begin to grow rapidly, and by the fourth quarter, the proportion of 480-520 horsepower segment has reached 41%, and the proportion of more than 520 horsepower has reached 15%. In 2023, the sales volume of models above 560 horsepower has reached 5,600 units, with a maximum horsepower of 600 horsepower.
Power upgrade is the biggest driving force for gasification in the tractor market, because the operating economy of gas vehicles requires a longer operating mileage to reflect, so it is more suitable for the long-distance market, and the long-distance market also needs larger horsepower models to cope with more complex working conditions. It is expected that in 2023, the demand for products below 480 horsepower will continue to shrink further and gradually withdraw from market competition, and the demand for more than 520 horsepower will still increase significantly, which will promote the national long-distance transportation market to switch to gas vehicles. However, from the perspective of operation, the current average monthly operating mileage of more than 15,000 kilometers accounts for only about 10%, which can bring limited increment, and the distribution in various provinces across the country is relatively scattered. It is expected that the regional pattern of the gas vehicle market in 2024 will not change much compared with 2023.
Four judgments on the market trend in 2024
news Based on the above information, the following four judgments are given for the gas tractor market in 2024 for the reference of all parties.
First, the overall market distribution in 2024 will not change greatly compared with 2020 and 2023, and key provinces such as Shanxi are still the gas tractor base market;
Second, power and product upgrades drive gas vehicles to enter the long-distance market and spread to the eastern and southern provinces, which will have a huge impact on long-distance fuel vehicle users, especially those on the northwest route;
Third, in 2023, the gas tractor market will be released in a concentrated manner after two years of sluggish demand, while fuel vehicles will enter a cycle of capacity digestion and market downturn after years of rapid development, and the high gasification rate will be difficult to sustain for a long time;
Fourth, the conversion of oil to gas will continue to accelerate in local areas and customer groups, and exacerbate the overcapacity of the industry and prolong the digestion cycle of fuel vehicle capacity.