Lu Xun's best friend, China's first generation set up the red Zhang Ailing said:
It's better to be famous sooner rather than later.
To get ahead of the moment, not only to be famous, but also to release purchase restrictions.
Last time, after Zhouzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai and other places have successively liberalized the property market to restrict purchases.
Suzhou has directly canceled all of them, and Shanghai has lifted the single restrictionsIn addition to the inner ring, all other areas are open to "true and false single dogs".
Per warp net.
Matching with the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy, the sales tracking of mainstream real estate companies outflowed from a ** company in January, and 30 real estate companies were counted
29 are green and 1 is red, which is perfectly in line with the A-shares of the past two days.
We seem to be able to understand why this time the opening is not a trickle, moisturizing things and a gradual release, but the speed of lightning and the momentum of the opening of the Three Gorges Dam
If you don't let it go, it's amazing.
Compared with Chengdu's shy restraint**, these first-tier cities are now so generous and directly push the operating room to do major surgery, what will be the effect?
In terms of pure wealth, the purchasing power of the market has not disappeared.
Judging from the rising amount of residents' savings in 2023, the people are just more reluctant to spend, and they have not reached the point of running out of money at all.
Data**: People's Bank of China 2023 Financial Statistics Report
At the end of the day: real estate is not mineral water, and I'm not just talking about the difference in amount.
Mineral water is thirsty now, I will buy a bottle right away to solve my physiological needs, how many bottles of mineral water have you drunk in your life? No madman has ever really counted it.
What about the house? A house is a prudent investment that has been fully weighed, calculated, and measured, and will be relevant to you for the rest of your life.
The buying behavior of a house is now, but the purchase decision must be made in the future.
At this time, someone jumped out and said, when the market is good, many people take leverage and grab houses like mineral water! Can't you see?
As far as I can see, it is also a current decision made based on the logic that everyone believes that it will "rise forever" in the future.
More rational customers need to consider the impact of the future on the present.
1. Funds for a down paymentIf you pay now, can you earn it back in the future?
2. Monthly payment of fundsAccording to the current work situation, can it be guaranteed to grow for decades or remain unchanged?
If any of these two items are absolutely risky, it will affect the decision of the buyer today.
The policy is liberalized before the wallet, but the heart may not be opened.
In fact, the core idea of this round of purchase restriction is to release the previously restricted purchasing power.
We must be concerned about one question:In this market, there are still purchasing power, and how many people are left who must buy?
on the Internet.
The number of these people determines how long the policy can last after it is liberalized.
In terms of time, is it as short as Liu Xiang's hurdles, or is it as long as He Jie running a marathon?
In fact, from the wave of 2016, the mainstream "improvement" of purchasing power in this market has entered the mainstream digestion cycle.
Under the "buy up, not buy down" sentiment that the vast majority of human nature can't escape,When the core purchasing power comes to 2024, there should be little left.
Moreover, the living environment of today's new housing market is also very different from before.
On the one hand, a large number of second-hand housing markets continue to impact the new housing market, and after the Evergrande incident, the delivery of housing has been raised to a very important level;
In addition, a large number of foreclosure houses and second-hand houses that are eager to sell and reduce prices are also constantly bottoming out the marketThe independence of the new house can't go on.
Data**Guoxinda data.
The judgment of the Bureau of Deconstruction is still:There will definitely be a recovery in the short term, but it will not last too long, and the effect can only be calculated on a monthly basis, not on an annual basis.
After all, the heart booster is life-saving, not curative.
Although such policies are short-term for the release of retained local purchasing power, they are real long-term dimensionality reduction blows for cities that are lower than Guangzhou, Shanghai and Suzhou.
It's like, no matter how bad the three-body people are, technology is also a dimensionality reduction blow to the earth.
In fact, there has always been a wall between "absolute first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen" and "so-called first-tier cities such as Hangzhou" and "so-called quasi-first-tier cities such as Chengdu" in the mainland.
This wall has gradually deepened since 2010, and it has become insurmountable.
It's certainly not just the house prices themselves that can't be crossed.
Although the per capita income and GDP of the mainland cannot be pk Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, in terms of individual wealth, there are people who can afford to buy a house of more than 100,000 square meters, and there are many of them.
The main reason is that the various social security thresholds, household registration thresholds, and qualification thresholds set up in these cities have turned many customers away.
This time, Guangzhou took the lead in expressing its position, and then Hangzhou and Suzhou followed up, and we can see a sign that these strong first-tier cities and central first-tier cities intend to continue to relax the threshold.
In the long run, what they want is not only the grass on the edge of the nest, but the prairie.
The era of Shanghai siphoning the purchasing power of Jiangsu and Zhejiang has gradually opened; The era of Guangzhou siphoning the purchasing power of the Pearl River Delta is also gradually opening, and the most painful thing in the future is the high-end improvement products that exist around these cities.
Why can these central cities still be able to absorb the dynamics, and what is the adsorption logic?
It is these cities that will continue to concentrate and highlight in the future stock eraIndustrial advantages, these citiesThe industry and the economy have the opportunity to enter a positive upward cycle, and other cities, may not be so lucky.
Looking at macro urban real estate, we must use the big industrial logic to see, as for why-
In another article of the Deconstruction Bureau**Chengdu Yixin Lake, we specifically elaborated on the idea of why the industry is so important to real estate, If you are interested, you can click the link**: Yixin Lake or Bad Heart Lake".
Shanghai's finance, Guangzhou's window, Shenzhen's high-techBeijing's resources, these industrial advantages of absolute dimensionality reduction and blows to inland cities, the economic and industrial barriers that have accumulated for decades will become more inexplicable and insurmountable in the stock era.
The end of the siphon era is that the strong become stronger and the weak become weaker.
Just like Japan, we don't talk about what their lost 30 years have taught us, let's just look at today's real estate landscape.
In the whole of Japan, there are only three core cities left, Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, which can be called high-quality targets in the whole of Japan, and it is not surprising that the housing prices of other small cities have been cut in half to a fraction of them.
In good times, we are partners, neighbors, developing together, conspiring together, but some times, it is possible-
There is a growing trend towards a "zero-sum game" between cities.
Chengdu's previous "independence**" originally surprised the whole country once.
Especially last year, Chengdu's second-hand housing transaction amount and number of units and other indicators directly TOP1, also made many people puzzled.
Chengdu has been a very reasonable control of the real estate "base", has always been a relatively healthy existence, compared with the current "surgical scraping of bones and healing of the first-tier city of the first hand", Chengdu is actually a recuperation model.
Last year, for the land side, the price limit was relaxed, and some high-quality land was released, but the market as a whole was still rational and objective, and did not usher in a crazy general rise;
On the sales side, the restriction of more than 144 square meters has been gradually relaxed, which is also a step-by-step recuperation logic.
In addition, Chengdu, as a central city in the west, has been leading in the southwest in terms of economy, industry, construction, and image in recent years.
Some time ago, in order to prevent the risk of real estate debt, a document on the direct suspension or strict review of infrastructure projects in some provinces was issued, a total of 12 cities: Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia.
The entire western part of China, with the exception of Sichuan, Shaanxi and **, made the list.
From these signals, it can also be seen that there is no problem with the general environment in Chengdu, which is guaranteed for the healthy development of real estate in the future.