Economic Observer reporter Wang ShuaiguoAccording to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the "China Association of Automobile Manufacturers"), China's new automobile exports in 2023 will be 4.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 579%。According to the Japan Association, Japan's full-year automobile exports in 2023 will be about 4.3 million units.
There is basically no suspense that China's auto exports will surpass Japan in 2023, which is the first time that China has surpassed Japan and become the world's largest auto exporter after surpassing South Korea and Germany in a row.
In terms of enterprises, in 2023, among the top 10 companies in China's vehicle exports, SAIC and Chery will lead in sales, with exports of 109 respectively90,000 units, 9250,000 units, much higher than the rest; In terms of growth rate, BYD, Chery and Great Wall performed outstandingly, with export sales increasing by 3 year-on-year3x, 1x and 825%。
SAIC and Chery have certain advantages over other brands in terms of exports. Among them, SAIC's advantage lies in its acquisition of MG, a long-established British car company, in 2007, thus opening up the export situation. According to SAIC's statistics, overseas sales in 2023 will reach 12080,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 188%。The MG brand sold more than 840,000 units worldwide, accounting for about 70% of SAIC's overseas sales. In recent years, due to the intensification of competition in the domestic market, Chery has focused on overseas markets, and from 2021 to 2023, Chery Group's overseas market sales accounted for 50% of total sales. BYD's high growth is due to its explosive growth in the domestic market in the past two years, and it has begun to vigorously explore overseas markets.
From the perspective of export destinations, statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that from January to November 2023, the top ten countries in China's automobile exports are Russia, Mexico, Belgium, Australia, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, the Philippines, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Spain, of which the export volume of Russia and Mexico reached 84 respectively10,000 units, 3760,000 units, and exports from other countries are between 120,000 and 200,000 units. In terms of growth rate, the Russian and Spanish markets performed strongly, with a year-on-year increase of 55 times and 13 times.
Due to the impact of regional conflicts, car companies in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have withdrawn from Russia, giving Chinese brands the opportunity to seize the market. Mexico, on the other hand, has become a springboard for Chinese automakers to enter the U.S. market due to its geographical location, policies, and tax conditions. Smaller markets such as Spain and Belgium are outperforming because Chinese automakers use them as transit points for landing in Europe, and their sales will eventually be distributed to various regions in Europe, not all of which will be absorbed locally.
In the continuous rapid growth, the export market is becoming more and more important for the development of China's overall automobile market. In 2023, automobile exports will contribute 55 percent to the growth of total automobile sales7%。Since 2021, China's auto export market has achieved rapid growth for three consecutive years, with sales rising rapidly from less than 1 million units to nearly 5 million units, achieving leapfrog growth.
On the one hand, China's auto exports have soared, on the one hand, because China's auto chain has strong resilience, which has effectively supplemented the shortage of auto in foreign markets during the global epidemic; On the other hand, it is based on China's leading edge in new energy vehicle technology and the continuous improvement of fuel vehicle technology, which has been recognized by foreign markets.
Recently, Xu Haidong, chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said in an interview with **, including a reporter from the Economic Observer: "There is a special phenomenon in automobile exports in 2023. We estimate that China's exports to the Russian market may reach more than 900,000 cars in 2023, while China's exports to Russia two years ago were only 160,000, which means that there was an increase of 800,000 in the entire export sales last year, which was brought by the Russian market. "However, the opportunity market is highly contingent and short-lived, and the opportunity market brought by Russia to Chinese automakers in 2024 will become a thing of the past.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto export sales will reach 5.5 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the growth rate will decline compared with previous years. After three years of rapid growth, the automobile export base has reached the level of about 5 million units, and it will be difficult to continue to grow rapidly. At the same time, the international economic situation continues to be sluggish, local wars are prominent, and some European countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands have ended or reduced new energy subsidies ahead of schedule, which will affect China's auto export market.
It should be pointed out that although China has become the world's largest exporter of automobiles, the export "quality" is not high. "* Exports are only a small part of automobile exports, and the real internationalization is to produce directly in these target markets overseas. We see that Japan's overseas production in 2023 may be 178 million units, and there are not many exports from Germany and the United States that adopt the direct ** model, and more exports are produced overseas. In these respects, China is still lagging behind. In Xu Haidong's view, if the future direct investment of Chinese auto companies in overseas markets can be carried out smoothly and achieve results, it can be said that the internationalization of China's auto industry has been successful.
In 2023, the EU's countervailing investigation of Chinese automakers is also forcing automakers to build factories in the country. At present, BYD has confirmed that it will build a factory in Hungary, and SAIC and Great Wall are in the process of selecting sites.
Previously, the overseas factories of Chinese automakers were mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Latin America, Africa and other regions, and the overall number of factories has reached dozens of plants. Among them, Chery is the Chinese car company with the largest number of overseas factories, with KD factories in Malaysia, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Russia, Iran and Egypt.
With the deepening of the new energy process of the global automotive industry, China's automobile industry will play a key role as a participant with multiple advantages such as first-mover, scale, cost and complete industrial chain. However, in order to play a greater role on the world auto stage, China's auto industry still has a lot of homework to do, and the key to building overseas factories and improving quality and efficiency will become the key.