Now the real estate is not only people are reluctant to buy a house, I am afraid that the deleveraging of property market debt will be the main theme in the next few years.
According to the latest data released by the central bank,In 2023, the national personal housing loan balance will decrease by 16%There was a negative growth for the first time in history
In absolute terms, the balance of personal housing loans in 2023 will decrease by 630 billion yuan compared with 2022.
Mortgage balances showed negative year-on-year growth
First, because the number of people who buy houses has gradually decreased in the past two years, and the number of people who buy houses is less, the amount of loans will naturally decrease.
Second, there are too many people who repay in advance, because the mortgage interest rate is high, and other investments are either low returns or high risks, and early repayment is the most cost-effective investment.
Third, some housing loans have been converted into operating loans, because the interest rate of operating loans is generally more than 3 points, but the benchmark interest rate of mortgage loans is 42%, and there is generally a significant increase in addition to the first home.
In my opinion, this is not just a negative growth of data, behind the reveal, more or more investment concepts and consumption concept changes, you must know that in the past, the growth rate of personal loan balances in real estate is more than double digits every year, especially in 2016, the growth rate of personal mortgage loans reached 35%, in 2016 we all know that it is the starting point of the last round of housing price surges, but there must be a cause and effectThese high-growth figures are all residents' debts, and he will not disappear out of thin air.
After all, it has to be repaid, how crazy it was in the past, how difficult it will be to repay the debt in the future.
According to data released by the central bank,
In 2023, the balance of personal mortgage loans will reach 3817 trillion, while operating loans reached 2215 trillion, consumer loans reached 1917 trillion,The total debt is more than 80 trillion
In 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents in the country will be 3920,000 yuan, and the per capita loan amount has greatly exceeded this figure, reaching 570,000 yuan.
Therefore, the overall debt pressure is very large, and according to the "2023 Macro Leverage Ratio" released by the National Finance and Development Laboratory, it showsIn the fourth quarter of 2023, the leverage ratio of the residential sector has reached 635%，
This is also the reason why in 2023, the high-level has been encouraging consumption, and residents are unmoved, and even residents are not only not spending, but are making deposits, and the balance of RMB deposits in 2023 will reach 28426 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, of which,Household deposits increased by 1667 trillion yuan,
Behind this series of data is not a simple sentencePeople don't want to buy a house can explain
It is more due to the fundamental changes in investment concepts and investment markets.
In the past, when the economy was developing rapidly and housing prices were high-speed, even if they were burdened with high debt, they had to increase leverageBecause higher leverage means greater ROI.
However, now that housing prices are declining and the economy has not stabilized, the boomerang of debt is still coming back.
More leverage means more risk
So don't think that 2023 will be harder, 2024 will be better, you just had a seven-day vacation.
Debt doesn't disappear in a vacuum.
**Thousands of Fans Incentive Plan Your so-called mortgage is the money you borrow from your future self. When borrowing reaches a certain level, borrowers will definitely reduce consumption in order to repay debts, so you see, this year's property market is definitely not as good as last year
And as an ordinary person, don't toss around blindly in 2024, save more money, invest less, repay more loans, and reduce debt leverage.