Net profit of 4.8 billion! TCL in the cycle, the inflection point is coming?
Recently, the latest annual performance forecast released by TCL ** shows that by 2023, the company will achieve a net profit of 4.2 billion yuan to 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30% to 38%; The net profit after deduction was approximately RMB3.1 billion to RMB3.6 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 44% to 52%.
According to reports, the cumulative net profit of TCL** air conditioner in the first three quarters of 2023 was 618.8 billion. Based on this calculation, TCL** would have reported a loss of approximately $1.4 billion to $2 billion in the fourth quarter.
In the case of TCL Middle School, with"Honor student"This is not an ideal result.
After the release of the financial report, the stock price of TCL ** has also continued**, and if calculated from the highest point, the market value ** has increased by more than 150 billion.
In fact, the market has long expected the performance of TCL Zhonghuan, as polysilicon** will fall by more than 50% in 2023, especially in the fourth quarter, when the decline of polysilicon** accelerated. Therefore, enterprises in the cycle can only follow the trend.
Among many industries, the photovoltaic industry is undoubtedly one of the most cyclical patterns.
Over the past 20 years, the PV industry has gone through a total of four rotation cycles.
The first round was in 2004, under the pressure of environmental protection and energy security goals, countries introduced relevant policies to encourage the development of photovoltaics, and photovoltaic enterprises in various countries achieved rapid growth through exports, and this round ended under the influence of the financial crisis in 2008.
The third round began in 2010 and 2013, respectively, because of research in Europe and the United States"Double reverse"PV modules, as well as the 5-31 PV New Deal is coming to an end. In the past three rounds of cycle transformation, it is not difficult to find that policies play a decisive role in the development of the photovoltaic industry.
The fourth round began in 2019, in the context of the global energy crisis and carbon neutrality, the national photovoltaic industry has experienced first-class growth.
Judging from the data, in 2019, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China was 301GW, with 106GW of new PV installed capacity worldwide; In 2022, the newly installed PV capacity in China will increase to 8741GW, the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity of 230GW, in the past three years, both domestic and global photovoltaic installed capacity has doubled.
With the increase in demand, major PV companies have begun to expand aggressively.
According to ** statistics, from 2020 to the end of November 2023, the total investment (planning) of all links in the photovoltaic industry chain will exceed 3 trillion yuan. In terms of specific links, from 2020 to 2022, the cumulative investment in polysilicon will be 20.7 billion, 220 billion and 450 billion respectively; The total investment in silicon ingot and silicon wafers exceeded 290 billion; The total investment in cells and modules was 310.6 billion yuan, 220 billion yuan and more than 300 billion yuan respectively, with a cumulative total of more than 830 billion yuan.
Overexpansion brought the current upcycle to a swift end. Since 2023, all aspects of photovoltaic have declined to varying degrees, such as monocrystalline silicon wafers, at the end of 2023, the average transaction price of P M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers is yuan, you know, at the end of 2022, the cost of P m10 silicon wafers is 541 yuan, a year later, the average transaction price of P M10 mono-Si wafers dropped by more than 60%.
In addition to monocrystalline wafers, the decline in modules** has also been greatly exaggerated. According to **, from the beginning of 2023 to date, the module ** has decreased by 18 yuan w. In October, module tenders hit record lows, with project tenders remaining at 114-1.45 yuan w, in November it fell to the cost line of 1 yuan w. In December, the P-N-type module fell below the 1 yuan mark, and then the main force ** reached 094-0.99 yuan w.
It is undeniable that the PV industry has once again entered a downward cycle.
As a silicon giant in the upstream of the industry, TCL Zhonghuan has been hit the most obviously. According to the financial report, TCL Zhonghuan will lose 1.4 billion to 2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the last time TCL Zhonghuan had a single-quarter performance loss was in the fourth quarter of 2012, when it lost 100 million yuan.
For TCL Zhonghuan, the performance loss in the fourth quarter is also completely expected, after all, since 2023, the best in all segments of photovoltaic fields have declined to varying degrees, and the decline in silicon wafers and modules is particularly serious.
According to the financial report, TCL Central's main business is the production of silicon wafers and modules. In the first half of 2023, TCL Central's PV wafers achieved revenue of 269700 million, or 7727%；PV modules achieved revenue of 520.8 billion, or 1492%。
However, despite the high expectations, the share price of TCL ** air conditioner continued after the release of the earnings forecast** and was coerced by the market. Of course, investors may also be worried about the ** cycle, so they are also waiting for signs of a reversal in the sector.
In fact, investors' concerns are not unreasonable, after all, photovoltaic is one"The remnant is king"In the industry, there will be many companies that are eliminated in each cycle.
According to the financial report, in the third quarter of 2023, TCL** total liabilities were 647500 million euros, of which net debt is 200€600 million, compared to 116 million in cash held by TCL ** for the period900 million euros, financial pressure continues.
In addition, with the continuous decline of wafers** and modules**, TCL Central's previous aggressive expansion is currently putting some pressure on the company. As of the third quarter of 2023, TCL Central still has 106 projects under construction100 million, if the PV market continues to decline in the future, TCL Central is likely to have overcapacity in the future.
Of course, it's not that TCL ** air conditioners are unaware of the cyclical laws of the industry. As a result, it has also dealt with a number of capacity delays, including the transfer of a 27% stake in Xinjiang Ghosn.
Kangmei Pharmaceutical believes that because this is a cyclical industry, the development of enterprises will indeed encounter some difficulties, but if enterprises can survive this cycle, the market will also bring unimaginable returns to enterprises.