The Spring Festival holiday is not only a time for family reunions, relatives and friends, but also a good time for brokerage analysts to return to their hometowns for front-line research. On February 22, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily paid attention to the fact that recently, the research teams of Shenwan Hongyuan**, Pacific**, Zheshang** and other securities companies are getting together to release "grassroots" research reports on returning home during the Spring Festival. On the whole, during the Spring Festival, most brokerage analysts observed the economic momentum of their hometowns from a professional perspective, and some analysts flew to the Middle East and crossed the Strait of Hormuz to present a report on the Chinese market from an overseas perspective. Analysts are rushing to the front line of research, bringing more fireworks to industry research. Some industry insiders said that the Spring Festival provides a unique observation window for brokers. The advantage of the homecoming research method is its timeliness and vividness, which provides investors with more accurate market insights.
"Grassroots" insight into the industry.
The Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon is coming to an end, but the "grassroots" research report featuring returning to the hometown and traveling has continued to be popular. On February 21, Huachuang** issued three articles in a row on the New Year's homecoming. It is reported that the relevant articles were jointly written by the food and drink, agriculture, fixed income, strategy, machinery, chemical, real estate, metal and other teams of the Huachuang Research Institute, and conducted "grassroots" research on the economy and consumption during the Spring Festival homecoming, combined with what was seen in 21 cities in 14 provinces, felt by 24 cities in 15 provinces and cities, and known by 22 cities in 9 provinces, to show the economic momentum, Spring Festival atmosphere, and sinking consumption.
Huachuang ** Research Institute said that the Spring Festival holiday is not only a time for family reunion and family and friends, but also a good time to return to the hometown for front-line research. The cities surveyed include the first-tier cities of Guangzhou, the new first-tier cities of Hefei and Nanjing, the second-tier provincial capitals of Fuzhou and Taiyuan, as well as the third- and fourth-tier cities.
On the evening of February 21, the Zhejiang Business ** Research Institute also announced the Spring Festival news of the research team. Yang Ji, chief food and beverage analyst of Zheshang**, Zhang Jiazhen, food and beverage analyst, Huang Yuchen, head of IPO research, and other analysts as special observers, gained insight into liquor consumption, film market and other industries in Huai'an, Jiangsu, Qianjiang, Hubei, Ningbo, Zhejiang and other places.
In addition, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily searched for keywords such as "returning home", "returning to hometown" and "grassroots" and found that recently, there are many brokerage research teams such as Shenwan Hongyuan**, Pacific**, Zheshang**, and China Merchants ** are piling up to release the Spring Festival "grassroots" research report.
In the view of Zhao Wei, chief economist of IFC**, "the team members feel the pulse of China's economy with their hearts in the form of returning to their hometowns for research, deeply understand the structural transformation of China's economy with first-hand information, and the feedback case information is vivid and lively, and there are many common characteristics."
China Securities Construction Investment** also told the Beijing Business Daily reporter that the company's industry research analysts have a lot of "grassroots" research trends during the Spring Festival, focusing on home appliances, e-commerce, logistics, tourism, catering, liquor consumption, education, real estate, medical equipment, etc.
According to Wang Peng, a researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences and dean of the Institute of Digital Economy at Nanchang Institute of Technology, during the Spring Festival, a large number of people flowed, especially the phenomenon of returning from the city, providing a unique observation window for brokers. The advantage of this research method is that it is timely and vivid, and can capture the changes in consumers' consumption behavior and preferences during a specific period (such as the Spring Festival), providing investors with more accurate market insights. However, due to the short duration of the survey and the fact that the sample may not be comprehensive, the accuracy of the "grassroots" research report may be questioned, and the subjective judgment and experience of analysts may also have an impact on the survey results.
Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Research Institute of the University of Finance and Economics, believes that the release of the research report by the brokerage is intended to show the investment and research strength of its company, and it is also an important means to maintain customer relations.
"Sinking consumption" has become a high-frequency word.
Turning over the homecoming research report, the consumption strength in the New Year's flavor has attracted the attention of brokerage analysts, and "sinking consumption" has become a high-frequency word that has been mentioned. Merchants analysts took advantage of the opportunity to return home during the Spring Festival to conduct "grassroots" research on Spring Festival consumption, and pointed out that there is a broad space for upgrading mass goods in the sinking market. On February 18, SDIC ** released the "Food and Beverage Special Topic - 2024 Spring Festival Experience: Peak Season is Coming as Scheduled, and the Demand for Gift Banquets is Outstanding" for "grassroots" research on supermarket channels and mass snack stores in 11 provinces and cities, covering first, second and third-tier cities, and channel research on some liquor dealers, combined with the overall sales situation, feedback on the dynamic sales and sales of each sub-sector during the Spring Festival.
The team of Ma Li, the first new consumption of Zhejiang businessmen, also mentioned the sinking market in the experience of returning to the hometown, believing that the township consumption is vigorous, and the new consumption mode is accelerating the downward penetration. In recent years, the consumption patterns of sinking markets such as towns and villages have quietly changed, and the growth rate of spiritual consumption is higher.
Referring to the performance of the sinking market, Huachuang ** Research Institute said, "The perception of consumption is not only the 'hot' on the travel and consumption atmosphere across the country, but also the fact that we are returning to our hometown to focus on the field visits and observations of the majority of third- and fourth-tier cities, and we also feel that the huge consumption potential is being released, where there is not only the real 'upgrade' brought by the sinking of the brand chain, but also the huge space for online consumption and live broadcast economy."
Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, pointed out that the reason why analysts are concerned about the sinking consumption sector is that China's consumer market is undergoing structural changes, and the consumption potential of third- and fourth-tier cities and rural areas is gradually being released, becoming a new driving force for consumption growth. With the advancement of urbanization and the improvement of residents' income levels, consumer demand in the sinking market is becoming increasingly strong, which has an important impact on the growth of large consumption industries such as retail, food and beverage, and home appliances.
In Wang Peng's view, analysts can provide targeted market strategies and investment advice for enterprises and investors by understanding the consumption trends and competitive landscape of the sinking market. In addition, consumer needs in lower-tier markets are often different from those in urban markets, which provides opportunities for businesses to innovate and differentiate. It is of great significance to have an in-depth understanding of the sinking market through homecoming research to grasp future consumption trends and explore new growth points.
The enthusiasm for post-holiday research has not diminished.
At the same time, many analysts have focused on the development of their hometowns. For example, Shen Wan Hongyuan**'s "Returning to the Hometown: Taihe - Witnessing the Rapid Development of Small Counties in Northern Anhui" and "Returning to the Hometown - Innovation and Change in the Millennium Spring City"; "Founder Returns to Nineteen Counties" of the Founder ** Research Institute presents the changes of the small city from the perspective of a researcher.
It is worth mentioning that, compared with previous years, with the heating up of the outbound travel market during the Spring Festival holiday, many brokerage analysts have also begun to send "postcards" from foreign countries. "Overseas Experience-Red Sea Storm Middle East Cruise Trip, Local Polarization of Chinese Commodity Reputation", "Overseas Experience: Watching Textiles and Small Commodities Go to Sea in Italy", "Overseas Experience-Looking at Chinese Household Appliances Going Overseas in the UK" and other industry research articles have been published frequently, presenting a report on the Chinese market from an overseas perspective.
The Spring Festival homecoming research is in full swing, and the enthusiasm for post-holiday research is also undiminished. According to data from Oriental Wealth Choice, a total of 38 companies were surveyed by brokerages during the Year of the Dragon (February 10-22). In the research list, Sanhua Intelligent Control in the manufacturing general equipment industry has attracted much attention, and 42 brokerages have participated in the survey. In the same period, Tang Renshen and Sulian, which also belong to the manufacturing industry, were investigated by 9 and 6 brokerages respectively. On the whole, except for Chinese**, the companies with the highest number of brokerage researchers are related to the manufacturing industry.
Jiang Han said that the manufacturing industry is an important pillar of China's economy, and its development is directly related to the stability and growth of the national economy. In addition, with the reshaping of the global first-class chain and the upgrading and transformation of China's manufacturing, the innovation ability, intelligence level and sustainable development ability of the manufacturing industry have received extensive attention. Therefore, brokerage analysts can better grasp the latest developments and future trends of the manufacturing industry through research, and provide a basis for investment decisions.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Yuyang Hao Yan.