Original title: The overall net inflow of foreign investment in China in 2023.
Economic reporter Yao Jin.
According to data recently released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's balance of payments will remain basically balanced in 2023. Among them, the current account surplus was 264.2 billion US dollars, and the ratio of the surplus to the gross domestic product (GDP) in the same period was 15%, which continues to be in a reasonable equilibrium range; Cross-border capital flows have stabilized and improved, and investment in China has generally maintained a net inflow pattern.
First, the scale of the surplus of goods is the second highest in the past years. In 2023, China's balance of payments goods** surplus will be 608 billion US dollars, second only to the scale of surplus in 2022 and the second highest in history. Among them, the export of goods was 3,179.6 billion US dollars, and the import was 2,571.6 billion US dollars, both of which were at a historically high level. In 2023, China's economy will continue to recover, its external resilience will be enhanced, and the scale of import and export of goods will rise quarter by quarter, supporting China's current account to maintain a relatively large surplus.
Second, the operation of the service is more balanced. In 2023, China's service deficit will be 229.4 billion US dollars, showing an orderly recovery to the pre-epidemic level. Travel and transportation are still the main deficit items in services**. Among them, the travel deficit is 180.6 billion US dollars, and the scale of spending on studying abroad and travel has recovered to nearly 80% of 2019 levels. The service surplus items continued to grow. Among them, the surplus of other business services such as consulting and advertising was 38 billion US dollars, which remained at a high level in recent years, an increase of 96% over 2019; The surplus in telecommunications, computer and information services was US$19.2 billion, up 8% from 2022 and up 14 times.
Third, there is a net inflow of investment in China. Among them, the net inflow of foreign equity direct investment was US$62.1 billion, and the net inflow in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased significantly from the previous quarter. According to preliminary estimates, the net inflow of investment in China in the fourth quarter reached a two-year high, and from September to December 2023, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic bonds by more than US$60 billion.
Looking forward to 2024, experts believe that, on the one hand, the stability of China's cross-border capital flows will be further improved, the current account will continue to maintain a reasonable surplus, and the inflow of foreign capital under the capital account will be more active. This is because China's industrial chain is very complete, industrial upgrading continues to advance, and the production and manufacturing capacity is strong, which brings strong competitiveness to China's goods. On the other hand, the foreign products and markets are increasingly diversified, the effect of stabilizing foreign trade and regional cooperation policies is gradually emerging, new export growth points will continue to emerge, more and more business entities, the competitiveness of the products produced by business entities is getting stronger and stronger, and there will be more and more regions and countries cooperating with China, which will enhance the stability of foreign trade. At the same time, as the external financial conditions tend to ease more and international investment will resume activity, China has a complete industrial chain, a super-large market, and the advantages of RMB asset diversification and diversified investment will become increasingly prominent.
Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that the favorable conditions for China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed; Central banks in major advanced economies are widely expected to start a cycle of interest rate cuts, and external financial conditions are expected to ease even more. With the overall improvement of the internal and external environment, China's balance of payments has a better foundation and conditions to maintain a basic balance.
*:Economy**.