In the new energy vehicle industry, Tesla has always been regarded as a leading company. However, the recent earnings performance has triggered a strong reaction from the market. After the release of the earnings report, Tesla's stock price fell 12% in a single day, and its market value evaporated by $80 billion.
In Tesla's Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2023, Q4's total revenue was $25.2 billion, an increase of 3% year-on-year; Gross margin was 176%, down 62 percentage points; deducted non-net profit of US$2 billion, down 39% year-on-year. The three major indicators of revenue, gross profit margin and net profit did not meet expectations, and fell into the dilemma of "increasing revenue but not increasing profits".
Tesla's total revenue in 2023 reached 967US$700 million, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and the non-net profit was 108800 million US dollars, a record high, the field of new energy vehicles can still be described as "big profits". However, the gross margin was 182%, down 7 percent year-on-year35 percentage points; Non-net profit decreased by 23% year-on-year. This is the first decline in gross profit margin and net profit since Tesla's listing, and Tesla's profitability has declined significantly compared to the previous high profit margin. This may be the reason why the stock price has plummeted and investors are bearish on Tesla.
At the beginning of 2023, when Tesla cut prices for the first time, many car critics analyzed that Tesla still had 30% room for price reduction. But now the financial report shows that the gross profit margin is only 182%, this gross profit margin is still obtained after four price increases in the second half of 2023.
For this phenomenon, the market and investors are looking for a reason. From the perspective of the market, the competition in the new energy vehicle industry is becoming increasingly fierce, the new energy vehicle war in the Chinese market is intensifying, and the speed of new models and new technologies is very fast, which largely eats away at Tesla's market share. In addition, Tesla's selling price in the Chinese market is close to the cost price, and the selling price is the lowest in the world, compressing its gross profit and profit margins.
However, in addition to market reasons, Tesla also has its own problems, with fewer models and slow technology iteration. Tesla has had two growth waves, the first driven by the Model 3 (released in 2017) and the second by the Model Y (released in 2020). Analysts see the third wave of growth as the next generation of affordable electric vehicles (Model Q). In order to create this secret**, Tesla's R&D expenses in 2023 will reach an all-time high, which is equivalent to the total R&D expenses of several new car-making forces.
It is worth noting that Tesla's electric pickup Cybertruck is ready to be launched in batches, and before the third wave of growth, the increase in 2024 will be mainly supported by the electric pickup Cybertruck. However, the Cybertruck is structurally complex and is expected to ramp up production for a longer period of time than other models.
Tesla plans to start mass production of next-generation platform products at its Texas plant in the second half of 2025 or by the end of 2025, and then start production at its Mexican plant after completion. The price of the new car may be 2$50,000 (17.)50,000 yuan), and the global sales target is 5 million units per year. This strategic layout will not only help improve Tesla's market competitiveness, but also bring considerable benefits to it in the coming years.
Compared with Tesla, BYD's financial report has always been regarded as a typical representative of "increasing revenue but not increasing profits". However, as the market changes and competition intensifies, BYD has begun to face similar challenges. However, unlike Tesla, BYD has taken a series of measures to deal with this predicament, and is gradually fading this hat of "increasing revenue but not increasing profits".
Perhaps in Musk's eyes, electric cars are just a transition, and the humanoid robot Optimus is a revolutionary product with the potential to far exceed the value of Tesla's other products. Coupled with products such as satellites and launch vehicles in the Mars program, companies and figures like Musk have more ambitious careers and bigger brains, and they will not always stare at the three melons and two dates (financial reports) in front of them.
To sum up, Tesla, as a leader in the new energy vehicle industry, is facing both market reasons and its own challenges behind the profit dilemma. In the next few years, with the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market and the intensification of competition, Tesla will continue to give full play to its own advantages and seek breakthroughs and development. For investors, paying close attention to Tesla's dynamics and market changes will help them better grasp investment opportunities and risk control.