If you want to know more exciting content, come and pay attention to my steel has entered February, the festival is coming, anthracite ** merchants and upstream and downstream have been on holiday, and the market trading atmosphere has gradually cooled. So what will be the operating trend of the national anthracite market after the holiday, and the following author will combine the fundamentals to carry out the market after the holiday.
1. Shanxi anthracite market
Shanxi market coal injection ** is basically stable, the Spring Festival is approaching, coal mines ** has shrunk, affected by snowfall in some parts of the north, hauling has been hindered. The downstream steel mills have completed the multi-warehouse preparation, the market activity has gradually cooled down, and there is no inventory pressure at the coal mine end, and the offline market is mainly stable. Shanxi major cities injection coal ** as follows: Shanxi Yangquan smokeless injection Q7200, A11, S12 reported 990 yuan ton; Jincheng smokeless injection Q6500, A11, V11, S05 reported 1100 yuan ton; Changzhi injection coal Q6500, A11, S 05. Highway ** reported 1150 yuan ton; The above ** are ex-factory tax prices.
Jinzhong production area, pre-holiday coal mines have entered the holiday state, production enthusiasm is not high, the output has been slightly reduced, most of the coal mine inventory pressure is small, affected by snowfall in some parts of the north, pulling and transportation is hindered, downstream arrival or will be affected to a certain extent. However, considering that the replenishment and stocking of downstream steel mills is nearing the end, the inventory is enough to pass the festival safely, and the coal injection before the holiday is basically stable. After the Spring Festival holiday, coal mines will resume production intensively, and with the increase in the operating rate of coal mines, the first will be increased. However, after the supervision of the National Safety Committee, coal mines have increased their attention to safety, coupled with years of overload and supply, the post-holiday production capacity release may be lower than the same period in previous years, and the ** level may return to the pre-holiday level. Downstream steel mills will release a certain demand for replenishment after the holiday, and the coal injection will be supported, and it is expected that the coal injection will be narrow after the holiday.
The sintered coal market in Jincheng production area may still be the best after the holiday, and the overall market is down, the speed of resumption of work is expected to be slow, and the output will increase slowly. In February, in the off-season of steel consumption, the slow rise of molten iron is still facing the possibility of reducing production, and the raw material end is under normal pressure, and the sintered coal maintains a weak and stable operation.
Second, the southwest anthracite market
In addition to state-owned enterprises in the local area, most of the private coal mines are suspended during the holiday, and the injection coal is temporarily stable, and the ex-factory price of injection coal in Qujing market is 1,500 yuan including tax; The ex-factory price of injection coal in Zhaotong market is 1200 yuan including tax; The ex-factory price of lean coal injection coal in Panzhihua market is 1,400 yuan including tax, and the ex-factory price of lean coal injection coal in Liupanshui market is 1,360 yuan including tax. After the year, it is expected that the overall performance of the market will be stable and weak, and it is difficult to say that it is optimistic, and it will be mainly weak and stable in the short term, with limited downward adjustment, and the output in the region will rise steadily. The overall profit of downstream steel mills is low, and most of them are mainly based on normalized on-demand procurement, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the changes in terminal steel mill demand and mine output in the future.
3. Henan anthracite market.
It is expected that the Henan anthracite market will continue to operate weakly and steadily after the holiday. At present, the market is in a weak situation of supply and demand, near the Spring Festival coal mines to safety production, most of the coal mines have been suspended for holidays, superimposed on the impact of recent snowfall, vehicle transportation has been blocked, the delivery efficiency has been reduced, and the market has tightened slightly. The downstream pre-holiday replenishment is basically nearing the end, the demand release is less, some of the ** have been closed for holidays, the overall trading atmosphere is average, and the market sentiment is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. During the holiday, coal mines are likely to be in a state of accumulation, and most downstream enterprises maintain normal production and will consume a certain amount of inventory. After the Spring Festival, coal mines will resume production one after another, and gradually return to normal output, downstream enterprises have a certain demand for replenishment after the resumption of production, but in the short term, the recovery of procurement demand is slow, the market supply and demand are basically balanced, and it is expected that the first will continue to be weak and stable.
Fourth, the port injection coal market
Domestic port injection coal ** basically stable, but due to the steel mill pre-holiday replenishment has come to an end, the port inquiry has decreased compared with last week's activity, less transactions, and market activity has begun to decline. From the perspective of port auctions, the first merchants replenished the warehouse on demand, and all the auctions were sold, and the performance was stable. Because this year's steel mills mostly adopt the mode of rigid procurement, there is still a wave of demand for replenishment after the Spring Festival, and the market supply and demand are basically balanced. Under the background of increasing production and ensuring supply, the output of coal mines in the region is steadily rising, and it is recommended that everyone operate reasonably and steadily. To sum up, during the festival, the port injected coal ** or the overall stability, slightly**. The closing price of injected coal in Rizhao Port was 1,220 yuan, and the closing price of injected coal in Xuzhou Port was 1,200 yuan.
5. Imported coal injection market
Imported coal injection is mainly analyzed from the demand side, and the low inventory of steel mills after the holiday will drive the demand for replenishment, but it should be noted that steel mills are seriously losing money, and steel is weak, and steel mills are likely to make up for it from raw materials and continue to suppress coal prices. However, from the domestic end, in the context of weak coal prices, the probability of coal mines is not too early to resume production, it is expected that the resumption of production will be around March, and the overall ** in February will not be particularly sufficient, and the domestic injection coal price is likely to be weak and stable. On the premise of the trend of domestic coal prices, and then look at imported coal, the level of Russian injection coal is too low, superimposed tariffs and Russian railway freight, the Baltic Sea shipment is affected, the sales price is about to be lower than the cost line, then Russia's ** will not be very sufficient, and the current index has been very close to the lowest point last year, it is difficult to fall below the lowest level at present, and the Russian coal injection index is expected to be 135-140 US dollars after the holiday, and the overall weak and stable operation.
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