"The $5 trillion 'three' industry and the $5 trillion auto industry are superimposed on commercial real estate. ”
Wenba Jiuling
In 2024, domestic demand and consumption remain the top priorities.
Last year, Mr. Wu Xiaobo issued an article proposing several conditions that the consumption pool needs to have, which can be summarized as:First, the scale will reach 5 trillion yuan; second, in line with the trend of industrial or consumption upgrading; Third, we need to take a lead and move the overall situation.
After taking a look, it seems that only real estate, the automobile industry and the "three" industries composed of home furnishing, home appliances and home decoration meet the three conditions. Today's hot artificial intelligence, although it has great prospects, has not yet landed.
This year, there have been some positives and some variables in these three major industries.
Let's start with the real estate market. In addition to the policy relaxation and support for the financing of real estate enterprises, the renovation of old communities and urban villages, the construction of affordable housing and low-rent housing, and the delivery of buildings are carried out at the same time, which is a big project to leverage the demand of trillions of yuan. However, commercial real estate continues to be sluggish, the vacancy rate of shopping malls is still increasing year by year, and the places that carry residents' consumption are struggling.
Second, home appliances, home decoration, home furnishing "three industries". The demand of the "three" industries is brought by urban renewal and guaranteed delivery on the one hand, and improved consumption on the other hand.
Needless to say, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the automobile industry, especially new energy vehicles, has reached 34 in 202368%, and entered the stage of "meat is almost finished, only soup is left": the pattern of vehicle manufacturing has basically been determined, but there is the possibility of reshaping parts such as car machine chips, wire-controlled chassis, and sensors.
New energy vehicle manufacturing.
At the same time, the market share competition and the battle of car companies will continue, which will stimulate consumers' desire to buy cars to a certain extent. From this point of view, automobiles are still the "hope of the whole village" in promoting consumption.
In any case, the demand side of the macro economy in 2024 still needs to be leveraged by the visible "three major pieces".
Domestic demand and consumption are very macro words, but at the micro level, they are the real life of every ordinary person.
How to get more people to go shopping malls, to update their travel methods, and to improve their lives is not something that can be achieved immediately by the state's stimulus policies or small favors - at least in behavioral science, insight into demand and consumption decisions is a complex task. In other words,Consumption ultimately depends on the innovation of business models and marketing.
Therefore, from the policy level, it is to stimulate the demand of these three industries and guide people to consume; But underneath this business world is all about how to get consumer traffic and maximize conversions.
In recent years, the common practice of the industry is: to integrate consumer traffic, that is, the exchange of traffic between industries. For a while, "joint crossover" seemed to have become a panacea. Of course, the consolidation of traffic also occurs in the "big three".
The most typical is the "enclosure movement" launched by commercial real estate and automobiles.
Since Tesla opened its first store in Fangcaodi, Beijing in 2013, new energy vehicle brands have seized shopping malls in the core areas of second- and third-tier cities. According to statistics, its total number has accounted for more than 1 3 new energy vehicle channel outlets.
New energy vehicles are displayed and sold in shopping malls.
The reason why cross-border can be achieved is that car companies want to obtain customer flow in business districts and increase the best degree and display brand image, and shopping malls are also very welcome to some cool and new car-making forces with their own traffic in the face of high vacancy rates and declining rents.
However, Tesla, the pioneer of this model, stopped playing for the time being. Starting from 2022, Tesla has started a wave of centralized store closures, retaining only a small number of central stores with large customer traffic, and continuing to expand to peripheral business districts with relatively cheap rents, setting up more outlets in the form of 4S stores to improve the experience and down payment ability.
Since then, many car companies have also withdrawn their fixed experience stores and replaced them with mobile booths and pop-up stores on the one hand, and the "return" of the traditional distribution system on the other hand.
There are some shopping malls that have adjusted their thinking and tried new integration models:Gather new energy vehicle brands to create a "car market". For example, the fifth floor of Beijing Hopson Hui brings together mainstream new energy vehicle brands, which is equivalent to a small auto show, where consumers do not have to run around hard, and car companies get more concentrated traffic and lower rents. The mall can also integrate some marginal lots, such as atriums, to improve land utilization.
The new energy vehicle showroom in Chaoyang Heshenghui, Beijing.
But this is not the optimal solution. Judging from the earliest car sales funnel, a single store sales = store sales volume retention rate test drive rate transaction rate, if the new cross-border model is not optimized in these four nodes to solve the conversion problem, it will most likely be abandoned by the brand in the end.
The model of "co-branded crossover" of commercial real estate and automobiles seems to be drifting away. The reason is nothing more than two points: after all, cars are low-frequency products, and for shopping malls, the traffic is far inferior to high-frequency and low-cost products such as Starbucks or Internet celebrity catering. After the car brand has gone through the shouting period, it will become pragmatic and pay more attention to cost and return on investment.
In fact, there is a deeper question involved:Commercial real estate and automobiles seem to be interchangeable, but the two are actually independent and separate.
Despite the large traffic in the mall, the customer base actually does not match the car buyer group. A consumer who has had dinner in a shopping mall can turn into a store with a cup of milk tea in his hand, and it is indeed very convenient to look at the car. However, the era of trying to popularize new energy to a passerby is actually over.
Most of the time, buying a car is a deliberate matter. Many car dealers said that many car buyers have basically done a lot of strategies in advance or have already intended to model, and most of them enter the store for in-depth test drive experience and bargaining.
Consumers who are buying cars.
However, the space of the mall is limited, and it is difficult to provide a scene similar to the in-depth experience of test driving for the real potential users who walk into the experience store. Even more fatal, there is no digital system linking the two.
Therefore, traffic and scenarios not only need to be further integrated, rational consumers need more in-depth experience, and the "cross-border" model also needs to be innovated.
In 2024, two companies will experiment with a new model.
One is C&D Automobile, which is a subsidiary of Xiamen C&D Co., Ltd. and has a business history of 23 years. C&D Automobile's main business is the distribution of high-end cars and luxury cars**, with 22 brands such as Bentley, Porsche, and Land Rover; One is Red Star Macalline, which is the leader of home furnishing stores, with more than 400 stores, which is equivalent to more than 6 times the total operating area of IKEA.
Red Star Macalline has had a rough time in recent years: the impact of the epidemic on offline stores, the impact of online platforms, and how to do category differentiation and scenario innovation have become a practical problem.
C&D Automobile is a luxury car, and the impact is relatively small compared to the dealers who just need passenger cars at the beginning, but in recent years, with the advantages of capital and its own first-chain logistics, C&D Automobile has begun to lay out in finance, insurance, second-hand cars and automobile exports, seeking to transform from a dealer to a full-chain service provider.
And this new model of cooperation is that the two companies work together to create a "space". To put it simply, in each Red Star Macalline shopping mall, a space of 10,000 square meters is planned to be dedicated to exhibition halls, especially automobile exhibition halls, to achieve the aggregation of more than ten automobile brands.
You may ask: isn't this similar to the previous car market model?
The peculiarity of this model lies in the matching of scenarios and traffic.
The advantage of Red Star Macalline lies in the space, plaza and underground parking lot, which can integrate three modules of sales, delivery and after-sales service, each module is independent of each other and operates in synergy. Therefore, when consumers enter the space, they can experience multiple brands and take an in-depth test drive.
The second is to solve the problem of mismatch between supermarkets and car buyers. Red Star Macalline's consumers are mainly high-net-worth, new middle class, and newlywed families. Generally speaking, most of the people who have decoration needs are newly married or replaced, and they will have a strong intention to buy a car, which is highly compatible with the user group of C&D Automobile, which has been operating high-end cars for a long time.
It is worth mentioning that the new space not only has the leisure function of an ordinary shopping mall, but also sets up another exhibition area next to the automobile exhibition area, home decoration, home furnishing, and home appliances are integrated in one space, basically to display and sell high-end household appliances such as home elevators, smart wearables, and sweeping robots, and the top floor of the shopping mall is built into a home decoration design center.
Space. Source: Internet.
This means that the 5 trillion yuan of the "three" industry and the 5 trillion yuan of the automobile industry are superimposed on the commercial real estate - it may be the first channel model in China to integrate the flow of real estate, automobiles and the "three" industries.
However, the most important link is missing from the new model.
Earlier, Red Star Macalline tried to independently introduce the new energy vehicle brand collection hall business, although individual brands have landed in the station, but there is no planned aggregation field effect. With the addition of C&D Automobile, with the complementary business advantages of both parties, this pain point has a solution.
From the perspective of the "space" investment plan, the current C&D Automobile online intelligent management system covers the "insight" intelligent decision-making platform, the digital system solution of C&D Automobile's large members, the full-link digital trading platform of second-hand car circulation and private domain operation.
In fact, since 2008, C&D Automobile has independently developed the CAM system, realizing 22 management items such as vehicles, finance, and insurance; In 2012, the first BI system for car dealerships was established, which shows that the foundation of digitalization is deep. Another major capability of C&D is private domain traffic operation, which has empowered 13 of its luxury car brands, and the customer conversion rate is more than twice that of the industry.
This means that as one of the top 100 retailers of automobiles in China, C&D Automobile has accumulated 300,000 high-end customer resources, and these user data will be interoperable with the membership system of Red Star Macalline, and realize multi-channel drainage and operation.
In general, the new model is a collection of three conditions:Integrate the traffic of cross-border channels, and the traffic can match or complement each other, and open up the traffic in a set of digital systems. With the first-class chain resources of C&D Automobile and the network of Red Star Macalline, once the model is run through within one or two years, replication is not a problem.
This also makes C&D Automobile and Red Star Macalline full of confidence: one is to be an excellent comprehensive service provider in the automobile industry, and the other is to become the largest new energy chain platform.
The Chinese consumer market in 2024 is like a Rubik's Cube, its four sides are real estate, the automobile industry, the "three" industry, and the unknown X, it may be cultural tourism, it may be accelerated artificial intelligence, or it may be a trend that suddenly emerged.
In short,An ideal state would be for the four sides of the Rubik's Cube to intersect and influence each other, creating infinite possibilities. And the one who plays the Rubik's Cube is not only the best hand of macro policy, but also the hand of innovation to promote the progress of business and marketing models.
The author of this article |Hatsumi Izumi |LiabilityEdit |He Mengfei.
Editor-in-Chief |He Mengfei. |Image source |vcg