The report is "2024 China Real Estate Industry Market Outlook", the report has a total of 31 pages, for more important content and core views, please refer to the original report, and the full version can be obtained at the end of the article.
This report aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the development trends of China's real estate industry in 2024, covering multiple dimensions such as macroeconomy, office market, warehousing and logistics, retail property and property investment. Based on the current economic situation, policy environment and industry trends, this report aims to provide investors and industry players with decision-making reference to respond to market changes and grasp industry opportunities.
1.Macroeconomics:China's economy is expected to grow by 4 percent in 20246%, of which consumption repair will be the main growth driver. The synergy between fiscal policy and monetary policy aims to promote industrial upgrading and transformation and domestic demand growth. With the gradual effect of policy relaxation, residential sales are expected to stabilize.
2.Office Market:Office leasing demand is expected to recover moderately in 2024, with net absorption expected to reach 4 million sq m. The new ** is abundant, and the balance between supply and demand is beneficial to tenants. Demand from the non-banking financial and internet sectors will improve, while artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing will also bring new demand. The demand for upgrading emerging business districts in first-tier cities will continue to flow in, and the upgrading of office quality has become a long-term trend.
3.Warehousing and logistics:The peak of the warehousing and logistics market in 2024 has passed, and supply and demand will enter a rebalancing stage. The growth of cross-border e-commerce is expected to continue, driving the growth of demand for first-chain logistics leasing. The downward pressure on rents will weaken, and the trend of cities will show a divergent trend.
4.Retail Properties:With the improvement of residents' consumer confidence, sports, outdoor and catering will continue to lead the rental demand of shopping malls. Offline stores are becoming an important scene for immersive consumption, and brands pay more attention to the uniqueness of space and environment when choosing locations. The peak of shopping malls** has passed, and rents are expected to stabilize or increase slightly in most cities, but they are still below pre-pandemic levels.
5.Property Investment:Investor sentiment has bottomed out and the low interest rate environment is expected to persist. In 2024, China's large-scale commercial real estate investment transaction value is expected to increase slightly. The capitalization rate is expected to continue to rise slightly, but is already approaching the top range. The investment strategy will focus on structural opportunities such as long-term rental apartments, industrial real estate, and core office buildings in first-tier cities, as well as cyclical investment opportunities such as retail properties.
Through the comprehensive analysis of this report, we hope to provide a useful reference for investors and industry players to help them move forward steadily in China's real estate market in 2024, seize opportunities and respond to challenges.
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