Between the cold air coming and going, the warmth is surging. The big recovery that we have been laying the ground for recently is about to begin.
Cold air is still frequent. Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, the cold air will affect the eastern part of Inner Mongolia and the northeast region, especially in some areas of Heilongjiang The cooling range can reach 6 10, such as the maximum temperature in Harbin will drop from -8 to -15.
After the 14th and 15th, there will be a new round of cold air affecting the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its northern areas, with a cooling range of 4 8, and a drop of about 10 in some parts of the north, accompanied by 4 6 winds, and offshore winds up to 6 7. For example, the highest temperature in Zhengzhou tomorrow is 16, but then the temperature goes all the way down, and the maximum temperature is only 3 on the 16th, and the cumulative cooling range is larger.
Nonetheless, the cooling effects will be quickly dissipated by a more intense warming in the cold air intervals.
It is expected that on the 11th and 12th, the maximum temperature 10 line will reach the northernmost point of the stage, reaching the northern part of Shaanxi and the central part of Shanxi. For example, the maximum temperature in Xi'an and Zhengzhou rose to 15 16, about 10 times higher than that of the same period in normal years, and almost the same as the local temperature in mid-March every year.
The warmth in the south is even worse, the temperature high point in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River appears on the 12th-14th, and the highest temperature is expected to reach the north of the Huai River during this period, and there will be a large area of the highest temperature above 20 in Jiangnan, South China and Yunnan, such as Wuhan and Hangzhou on the 13th-14th The highest temperature will reach 20, which will experience the warmth of the local perennial early to mid-April in advance.
The question I want to talk about today is: Is it bad to be a little warmer in winter?
This is also a question from netizens that can be seen from time to time in the comment area in the past few days. Looking back, the cold wave came and the weather was too cold, we were nervous and worried, and finally warmed up, but the temperature was too fierce and ridiculously warm, and we began to worry again. Isn't it a bit "fine"?
Winter is not cold, you don't need to buy down jackets to keep out the cold, and even heating electricity bills can be saved, melons, fruits and vegetables also have a chance to grow well in winter, so it's really good.
But the effects of a "warm winter" climate also have drawbacks.
Persistently large warmers are temperature anomalies, and they are not isolated weather and climate events. In the context of today's climate warming, more drastic temperature changes** are occurring more frequently, and the warmer it is, the more drastic the temperature foundation is provided for the more drastic cooling in the future.
Do you remember the strongest cold spell of the winter in mid-December? There was ultra-low temperature weather in the Huanghuai region of North China that lasted for nearly a week, and the temperature in many places set new temperature records in December. Even now, the temperature has warmed up for several rounds, and looking at the national temperature anomaly in the past 30 days, the "sequelae" of its impact has not been completely resolved.
From the national temperature anomaly map of the past 30 days to the past 10 days, it can be seen that although the temperature has warmed up recently, it is still difficult to completely eliminate the continuous low temperature impact brought by the cold wave in mid-December, and the average temperature in the past 30 days is still cold in North China and Northeast China.
Although the strength of cold air is abundant recently, it is not strong, which is related to the circulation situation of large trough ridges in the westerly belt. The recent polar vortex is more inclined to North America and Europe, so it's cold on their side and warm on our side.
However, the weather situation is not static, and at the moment when "extreme weather has become the new normal", trough ridge activity has a new characteristic - they are more prone to large fluctuations and large amplitudes, which are manifested in the extreme conditions of continuous cold and warmth.
So when we encounter a long-lasting and outrageous warming process, we can't help but worry about the next "collapse" of the temperature, because such "crazy" temperatures have been repeated many times in the past.
As we all know, large fluctuations in temperature are very dangerous for people with cardio-cerebral cardiovascular diseases, and for ordinary people, it will also greatly increase the risk of colds.
The more immediate harm of "warm winters" is the impact on agricultural production. Previous studies have shown that warm winter can delay the overwintering stage of pests and diseases, reduce the overwintering mortality of pests, and increase the number of bacterial sources and insect sources after winter. Statistics show that in the national warm winter year, the survival rate of pests in winter can reach 1 2 times that of normal years, and the base number of insect sources after winter can reach more than 2 times of normal years.
In addition, the warm winter will also lead to the occurrence of pests and diseases, the migration period, and the damage period are advanced, the occurrence area is expanded, the northern boundary of crop diseases and pests overwintering is moved northward, and the upper altitude of the altitude is increased.
So you see, the weather is still normal, the cold and warm have their own rules, and it will be bad if it is messed up.