Author丨Yang Zhijin.
Editor丨Zeng Fang.
Financial data in January got off to a good start. Data released by the central bank on February 9 showed that credit and social finance grew further in January this year on the basis of last year's high base, both exceeding market expectations. Among them, the credit structure has improved significantly, with bills decreasing by about 560 billion yuan year-on-year, and credit to the residential sector increasing by more than 700 billion yuan year-on-year.
People close to the central bank said that GDP growth in 2024 is expected to further converge with the potential economic growth rate, which is significantly higher than the average growth level of 4% in the past two years, but problems such as insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries and weak social expectations still exist in the short term. In the new year, the economy will continue to pick up and improve, and it is very important to stabilize the start. Loan growth in January was higher than market expectations, reflecting the strengthening of the vitality of the real economy, and the advance deployment of investment and production by enterprises, helping to achieve a good start to the economy.
In terms of growth rate, the scale of social financing and M2 at the end of January were respectively. 7%, which matches the expected target of economic growth and ** level, but is still significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate, will support the recovery of prices and the return of economic growth to potential growth. In addition, the growth rate of narrow money (M1) also rebounded to 59%。
Credit exceeded expectations and the structure improved
After the regulators proposed to revitalize the stock and balance the supply in the fourth quarter of last year, the market generally expects that the scale of new credit in January this year may be lower than the same period last year. Previously, the average new loans of market institutions in January was about 47 trillion yuan, the actual loan data exceeded market expectations.
Central bank data showed that new loans were 492 trillion yuan, 16.2 billion yuan higher than the same period last year, on the basis of the high base in the same period of the previous year, maintained a year-on-year increase, indicating that the financial support for the real economy in the bank's balance sheet is relatively stable. Among them, the dislocation of the Spring Festival has a certain impact, last year's Spring Festival was in January, and this year's Spring Festival was in February, and the time for credit in January this year was one week longer than the same period last year.
In the new year, the economy will continue to pick up and improve, and it is very important to stabilize the start. Loan growth in January was higher than market expectations, reflecting the strengthening of the vitality of the real economy, and the advance deployment of investment and production by enterprises, helping to achieve a good start to the economy. Better financial data can also continue to boost confidence and improve social expectations. People close to the central bank said.
The above-mentioned person close to the central bank said that all walks of life have a tradition of pursuing a "good start", and commercial banks are also accustomed to putting loans forward, and loan growth is often relatively fast at the beginning of the year. The new loans in January this year were basically the same as the previous year, which to a certain extent also reflects the effectiveness of financial institutions in smoothing the pace of credit disbursement.
In particular, it should be noted that the credit structure improved significantly in January this year, and the year-on-year increase in credit in January was achieved against the background of a year-on-year decrease of more than 560 billion yuan in bill financing, which is particularly valuable.
In practice, discounted bills are included in the credit scale, and the secondary market is convenient for trading, so the operation of banks using bills to adjust the credit scale is derived. When the credit supply is poor and the bank needs to complete the credit task, it will discount the bills, and when the loans are sufficient, it will sell the bill assets to release the credit line. The increase in bill financing is relatively large, indicating that the demand for credit is still insufficient, and banks have increased the scale of credit through the impulse of bills, and vice versa, the demand for credit is strong, which was the latter type in January this year.
While bill financing decreased year-on-year, short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans increased by more than 300 billion yuan and more than 400 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, which was the main contribution to new credit in January. The year-on-year increase in short-term loans to residents is mainly consumer loans, and the medium- and long-term loans of residents are mainly mortgage loans, which to a certain extent shows that residents' confidence has recovered, and the decline in loan interest rates has effectively stimulated credit demand.
According to the fourth quarter of 2024 report recently released by the central bank, the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans in December 2023 was 375%, down 022 percentage points, a new low since statistics; The weighted average interest rate for new personal housing loans is 397%, 029 percentage points.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that under the background of the further recovery of current household consumption and the low base in the same period last year, short-term loans to residents increased significantly in January; In addition to the low base in the same period of last year, the policy support for residents' medium- and long-term consumer loans and residents' business loans also increased by more than 400 billion yuan.
The above-mentioned people close to the central bank cautioned that it is necessary to reduce excessive attention to the monthly high-frequency data on money and credit. In the short term, high-frequency data is often affected by various seasonal disturbance factors, and the Spring Festival is the biggest disturbance factor. Judging from the history of previous years, affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival,From January to February, there will be some fluctuations in the growth rate of M2 and the increase in loans. At present, many statistics will be released in conjunction with the data from January to February due to the Spring Festival, and the overall financial data should also be observed in January and February
The above-mentioned people close to the central bank also said that in the medium and long term, China's economic structural transformation is having a profound impact on credit growth and credit structure, and the debt-driven economic growth model of real estate and local financing platforms is difficult to sustain.
Social finance increased year-on-year on a high base
From a statistical point of view, social finance deducts the capital transactions within the financial system, which purely reflects the financial system's financial support for the real economy, and is a relatively comprehensive indicator of financial support for the real economy.
According to central bank data, the increase in social financing in January was 650 trillion yuan, the highest level in the same period in history, 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. "On the basis of the high base in the same period last year, social finance continued to maintain a year-on-year increase, indicating that the financial system to provide financial support for the real economy remains at a high level. The aforementioned person close to the central bank said.
In terms of sub-items, undiscounted bank acceptance bills and corporate bonds contributed the main increase. Undiscounted bank acceptance bills are the most mysterious of the three off-balance sheet businesses, which fluctuate greatly and have a significant impact on social finance.
For example, let's say that there is a company A that has booked 1 million goods from a wholesaler, but cannot pay the wholesaler in full in a short period of time. So it found Bank B and asked Bank B to write an "IOU" with a term of 6 months to the wholesaler, and asked the bank to pay 1 million yuan on behalf of the enterprise after 6 months. The "IOU" here is the banker's acceptance bill. If after 3 months, the wholesaler also lacks capital turnover, then it can transfer the banker's acceptance draft to Bank C for cash. This process of transfer is called discounting or direct discounting, and a banker's acceptance that does not go through this process constitutes an "undiscounted banker's acceptance".
According to the data of the central bank, the undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 563.5 billion yuan in January, an increase of 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the demand for social loans has increased, indicating that the economic situation is improving. The net financing of corporate bonds was 483.5 billion yuan, an increase of 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in corporate financing through the bond market.
In addition, the ** bond in January increased by 119.3 billion yuan year-on-year, which was the main pull-down item. The reason for this is that the issuance of special bonds approved in advance began after New Year's Day last year, and the issuance of special bonds approved in advance at the end of January this year began.
On January 29, Guangdong Province issued 56.8 billion yuan of special bonds, opening the curtain of special bond issuance, and then Henan, Anhui, Shandong and other major provinces also started issuance. According to the reporter's understanding, the projects corresponding to the special bonds of the above-mentioned provinces are stock renewal projects, and such projects need to meet the following conditions at the same time: the first two years have passed the review of the state and the Ministry of Finance at one time, the first two years have been issued special bonds for two consecutive years, and the project urgently needs to pay for relevant projects before the Spring Festival. The follow-up special bonds are expected to increase in volume to support the steady growth of social finance.
M2, social finance maintained a high growth rate
Last year's economic work conference proposed that the scale of social financing and the amount of money should match the expected target of economic growth and the level of social financing, and there were major changes from the previous tone of "the growth rate of broad money and the scale of social financing basically matched the growth rate of the nominal economy". The reason for this is that due to low prices last year, the nominal economic growth rate was lower than the real GDP growth rate, resulting in a large deviation between the growth rate of M2, social finance and nominal GDP. Wind data shows that the growth rates of M2 and social finance at the end of 2023 are. 5%, which is higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. 4 percentage points.
If the original tone is maintained, the growth rate of M2 and social finance will be required to decline. However, under the requirement of "matching the scale of social financing and the amount of money with the expected target of economic growth and level", the growth rate of social finance and M2 will remain relatively high, because the current potential growth rate of China is at 5About 5%, the expected target in recent years is about 3%, then the growth rate of social finance and M2 should be 85% is even slightly higher. This new tone means that monetary policy needs to support both the recovery in prices and the return of economic growth to potential, especially the recovery in prices.
* The relevant responsible comrades of the Finance Office also said that the previous "nominal economic growth rate" was changed to "economic growth and the expected target of economic growth", which can better coordinate the target requirements of economic growth and the first level, and emphasized that the first level is an important regulation and control target of monetary policy.
The balance of broad money (M2) at the end of January was 297, central bank data showed63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%, the growth rate fell by 1 percentage point from the end of last year, and fell by 3 from the same period last year9 percentage points.
People close to the central bank said that the growth rate of M2 has fallen, and the characteristics of periodic disturbances are more obvious. Fiscal spending peaks before the Spring Festival, and an increase in fiscal spending will lead to faster M2 growth. Last year's Spring Festival was in January, and this year's Spring Festival is in February, and fiscal expenditure is dislocated from January to February, which will cause the growth rate of M2 to decline in January and rebound in February. In 2021, there was a similar dislocation of the Spring Festival, and the growth rate of M2 fell by 07 percentage points to 94%, and in February 2021 it rebounded to 101%。It is roughly estimated that the impact of fiscal factors on the M2 pull-down in January this year is 0About 7 percentage points
People close to the central bank also said that monetary policy has increased countercyclical adjustment since the epidemic, financial data is generally ahead of economic data, and M2 growth also reached a high of nearly 13% in February last year, which is significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. As the economy continues to recover, M2 growth will stabilize and decline, and the gap between economic and financial growth will gradually converge.
In terms of social finance, at the end of January, the stock of social financing was 38429 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95%, the growth rate was the same as the previous month. According to sources close to the central bank, the growth rate of social financing, M2 and credit is still significantly higher than the growth rate of the nominal economy, and the financial support for the real economy is sufficient.
At the end of January, the growth rate of M1 was 59%, a significant increase from the end of the previous month**46 percentage points, in the current property market continues to run at the bottom, and the base of the same period last year is not low, the performance exceeded market expectations. Wang Qing said that the main reason is that before the Spring Festival, in order to cope with the demand for current payments, year-end bonuses and wages, a large number of time deposits were converted into demand deposits, which pushed up the growth rate of M1. Considering that the official manufacturing PMI index has been running in the contraction range for four consecutive months in January, and the activity of business investment is low, it remains to be seen whether the growth rate of M1 can continue to improve.
sfc
Editor: Li Yutong, Intern: Zhao Fengling.
21 Jun recommended reading
Suddenly announced cancellation! The reason is "well known".
Dominate the screen! The hot search has exploded.
The SFC strikes again! 