Former Philippine Rodrigo Duterte raised the threat of leading the independence of Mindanao in the southern Philippines at a press conference. While Duterte claims that this is a peace movement, the move is actually aimed at putting pressure on the incumbent Marcos Jr. Duterte hopes to use the independence movement to stop Marcos Jr.'s constitutional amendments. He wants to warn Marcos Jr. that if he doesn't stop amending the constitution, then he will lead Mindanao to independence.
Duterte's series of actions can be traced back to last year, when Marcos Jr., together with Duterte's cousin and speaker of the House of Representatives, Romualdez, removed Duterte's allies from the position of deputy speaker of the House of Representatives and attracted lawmakers who had previously supported Duterte to join his party. Marcos Jr. has a numerical advantage and plans to achieve his family's long-term control of the Philippines through constitutional amendments. To this, Duterte responded that if Marcos Jr. continues to push for constitutional amendments, he will lead Mindanao to independence.
In addition to the political conflict, the Mindanao region itself has a tendency to become independent. For a number of reasons, including history, religion and economic development, there has always been a tendency towards independence in the region. The problem of the rebellion of the Moro armed forces has been going on for decades and has not been completely resolved, and there are still armed elements who persist in the struggle in the rural areas. Some armed groups have even colluded with extremist forces and carried out terrorist attacks in places like Mindanao. This has led to widespread dissatisfaction with the current political situation in Mindanao and fears that the current foreign policy could lead to the Philippines being drawn into war. Therefore, politicians in Mindanao generally hope to maintain friendly relations with China and promote the development of the local economy.
Duterte's choice to drop the political bomb of Mindanao's independence is also related to the pressure he is facing. As a former, the "war on drugs" he launched during his tenure was investigated by the International Criminal Court for crimes. Although Marcos Jr. previously said that he would not cooperate with the ICC's investigation of Duterte, as the contradictions between the two sides intensify, Marcos Jr. may change his position and directly blame Duterte. Thus, by throwing up the issue of Mindanao's independence, Duterte may be trying to increase his own protections.
However, Marcos Jr. values the interests of his family more and is unlikely to bow down and give up on constitutional amendments. While there is uncertainty about Mindanao's independence, that doesn't mean Marcos Jr. doesn't have a solution. Behind the independence movement in Mindanao, there may be some unknown elements of conflict and violence. Philippine politics has always had a certain amount of violence, and it is not uncommon for political families to have private armies in their hands. Duterte himself admitted at a news conference that he did have 500 registered guns in his hands. As a result, there is a risk that this independence movement will turn into an internal armed conflict.
All in all, Duterte has created a conundrum for Marcos Jr., who is on a foreign trip, by throwing out the threat of Mindanao's independence. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty about whether Marcos Jr. will abandon the constitutional amendment. He is likely to continue to push for a constitutional amendment, considering that it would have a profound impact on the overall situation in the Philippines.