On February 6, the three major A-share indexes were violent in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising more than 3%, once recovering 2,800 points during the session, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both rising more than 6%.
As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 323%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 622%, the GEM index rose 671%。The market has a total of 3829 *** 1465 ***
The Spring Festival is approaching, and the "tangled question" of holding shares or holding coins has once again become a hot topic in the market.
Some interviewees said that for long-term investors, it is usually recommended to hold shares for the New Year; For ** investors, it is still recommended to hold coins, and it is recommended to pay close attention to market changes, the introduction of relevant policies and whether there is a new main line logic in the market.
Look at probabilities from historical data
In the a** field, the "calendar effect" is not uncommon, and the Spring Festival holiday is also an important node. So from the perspective of the past years, what are the characteristics of the a** field before and after the Spring Festival?
The reporter learned that the Debang ** Research Institute reviewed the rise and fall of the index, industry, and style in the four weeks before the Spring Festival and the four weeks after the start of construction from 2010 to 2023.
The Debang ** Research Institute released a report sayingFrom 2010 to 2023, the trend of the five major indices is basically the same, with varying degrees of increase before and after the Spring Festival, and showing the law of the replacement of the downturn period and the strong period.
Specifically, from 2010 to 2012, 2016 to 2018, and from 2021 to 2022, the index performance was weak, and the market performance of companies with large market capitalization was more stable, such as CSI 300 and CSI 500; From 2013 to 2015, the peak increase from 2019 to 2021 can reach more than 10%, and the GEM is more likely to achieve high returns.
At the same time, according to the statistics of the Debang ** Research Institute,Since 2010, A-shares have performed better after the Spring Festival, and the ChiNext index has performed outstandingly. From the perspective of the average annual cycle rise and fall, the average increase in the fourth week after the Spring Festival is the largest.
However, historical data does not accurately reflect the future. The "calendar effect" is only a probabilistic phenomenon, and understanding the "calendar effect" can give investors a better understanding of the market cycle and prepare them psychologically and strategically.
Debang ** Research Institute reminded that this study can be used as a reference for investment, but because there are multiple factors in the rise and fall of the market, it cannot simply operate in accordance with historical laws, and it is not recommended that investors place heavy bets only on historical data.
In addition, on the question of whether it can usher in a "good start" after the Spring Festival this year, the private placement network has carried out relevant investigations in the private equity industry. The survey results show that 55% of private equity believes that there will be a "good start" after the Spring Festival**, because after the 10-day vacation, investors' sentiment will be restored and return to rationality, and the fundamentals and policies are expected to play a role in driving the upward movement.
Judging from historical data, the probability of a 'good start' after the Spring Festival is higher. Zheng Yanxin, manager of Quanjing, said in an interview with the reporter of the International Financial News, however, how to do it after the holiday this year may largely depend on the follow-up policy intervention and the corresponding recovery of investor confidence.
Holding shares for the New Year or holding coins for the New Year
In the face of the cliché issue of "holding shares or holding coins", investors in the industry have different ideas.
Different operating styles determine whether investors should continue to hold shares as the Spring Festival approaches. Zheng Yanxin thinksFor long-term investors, it is usually recommended to hold shares for the New Year. For ** investors, it is still recommended to hold the currency, and it is recommended to pay close attention to market changes, the introduction of relevant policies and whether there is a new main line logic in the market.
If you hold stocks with low valuations, high dividends, and a very high margin of safety, you can rest assured that you can hold them for the holidays。Chen Xingwen, chief investment officer of Kurosaki Capital, told reporters that the sectors with high dividends and low valuations will not make up for the decline, but these sectors will accelerate, because the funds involved in these are not speculative funds, they are medium and long-term funds, and the stock price is very stable.
But on the contrary, Chen Xingwen believesIf investors hold high-valuation small-cap stocks, it is advisable to take a light or short position for the holidays, as the risks in these sectors have not yet been fully released.
Overall, I still tend to hold on for the New Year. Bao Xiaohui, chairman of Changli Assets, emphasized that it is not recommended that everyone operate before the Spring Festival, but to wait for a while, and it may be better to wait until everything settles after the New Year.
Holding shares for the holiday has a high investment cost performance. Yu Chao, chairman of Qingdao Anxin Investment, believes that after a long period of adjustment, the overall position of the market is at the bottom of the area.
Regarding the question of whether to hold shares or hold currency during the Spring Festival this year, the reporter learned from the private placement network that nearly eighty percent of the private placements suggested holding shares for the holiday. The results of the survey show that 7895% of private placements recommend holding shares for the holidays. Of these, 4737% of private equity proposals are full for the holidays, 3158% of private placements recommend a medium** holiday. The private equity view is that the current market is supported by valuation and policies, and is suitable for dip hunting.
In addition, according to the results of the survey, there are 2105% of private placements still recommend holding coins for the holidays, ** controlled below 50%. The private equity view is that there is still a lot of uncertainty about whether it is domestic or foreign, and at the same time, the market has been irrational and volatile recently, so it is recommended to be cautious.
The opportunities outweigh the risks
For the trend after the Spring Festival, the market has different opinions, but in general, the majority are optimistic about the post-holiday trend.
The post-holiday market**, I think, will move forward. Bao Xiaohui said that the recent fluctuations in the A** field are irrational. Because from the historical performance of the A** field, the current market at this point is undervalued as a whole, and there is no greater risk, on the contrary, there are many high-quality targets in the over-falling range, which is expected to give investors a good return on investment in the future.
At this point, the opportunities in the market always outweigh the risks. Looking ahead, Bao Xiaohui believes that investors need to increase their confidence in the market in 2024. As the macroeconomic environment improves and policy support improves, it is important to always believe that market sentiment will gradually improve. However, it is also recommended that investors be prepared to deal with market volatility and uncertainty, maintain a calm investment mentality, invest rationally and diversify their investments, in order to reduce risks and obtain stable returns.
The market adjustment is sufficient, and the space for continued development is limited. Holding strategies is risky, but there are more opportunities. Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, told reporters that the structural contradictions in the economy continue to exist, and the follow-up market trend and direction will be largely guided by policy guidance and policy strength, with uncertainty.
In terms of investment advice, Yuan Huaming believes that monetary and fiscal policies are the next direction that can be strengthened. It is recommended that investors pay close attention to the opportunities brought about by policy adjustments. In addition, the market is entering the annual report disclosure period, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of high valuation** falling due to excessive gains in the past few years and difficult to deliver expectations.
Zheng Yanxin suggestedAfter the Spring Festival, investors can pay attention to core value stocks with good operating conditions and high intrinsic value, abandon speculation and embrace value, which is believed to be more beneficial in the subsequent index rise. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the risk of the spread of panic in the market outlook, and it is recommended that investors make good arrangements for funds, do not increase leverage, reduce income expectations, abandon illusions, and take the initiative to stay away from "junk stocks".
Looking forward to the market outlook, Yuan Meiyang, the equity investment department of Jurong Real Estate, believes that at the current point in time, the market outlook still needs to accumulate more positive factors. February is an important window for spring, and it is recommended to focus on the verification of economic data in January and the implementation of the management's policy of stabilizing the capital market, which may bring a turnaround for the follow-up.