Kunpeng Project
The global frenzy of core making, the Chinese market will become the winner or loser of chip manufacturers
A few days ago, Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, said that the demand for semiconductors will definitely be greater in the future, and the demand is not tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, but three, five or even ten factories.
In fact, in recent years, the world has been crazy for chips, SEMI data shows that there will be more than 100 new factories around the world within 5 years, and the total investment is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan by 2024.
When fully operational, global wafer capacity will increase by more than 50%.
So the question is, do we need such a large wafer production capacity? Some agencies believe that if all of these fabs were in production, the overall utilization of manufacturing capacity would be around 75-80%.
In other words, when these chip factories are fully operational, the capacity will be much higher than the demand, and there will be at least 20% or more leftover.
So, why is the supply exceeding demand, and everyone is still actively building factories? This is related to the current situation, where some powerful countries and regions are trying to cope with the future geopolitical crisis by diversifying the ** chain and increasing domestic chip manufacturing.
Previously, semiconductors were a global ecosystem, that is, chips were included in the global ** chain, from raw materials to design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, etc., all companies from all over the world collaborated to complete.
But these days, everyone wants to build their own ecosystem to make their economy more adaptable. That's why the United States is building a hub, Chinese mainland is building a hub, Europe is building a hub, Japan and South Korea are building a hub.
Everyone is subsidizing and encouraging companies to build giant factories and try to be self-sufficient and not let other countries enter this circle, and eventually everyone's production capacity is getting bigger and bigger, and the surplus naturally arises.
However, no matter how we are"Cover-up"Overcapacity is certainly a problem that needs to be solved, and in this case, the Chinese market will be one of the winners and losers for tablet manufacturers.
On the one hand, the Chinese market is the world's largest ejiao market, accounting for about one-third of the world's consumption, so as long as it can meet the needs of the Chinese market, there will be basically no excess capacity.
Secondly, China is the world's largest electronics manufacturing base, and the annual import of chips accounts for about 75% of the world's total chip production, that is, three-quarters, provided that this part of the quota is dealt with.
It can be seen that the Chinese market will become the sweetheart of these chip manufacturers next, and as long as the Chinese market dominates, there will be no overcapacity.
Of course, local Ejiao enterprises in Chinese mainland will not miss this opportunity, first of all, near the water, the first month, but in terms of geographical location, but also under the global competition, the ** war will definitely not escape, it depends on who has the last laugh.