"said:As a novice in public welfare, I have heard of "change theory" in the mouth of senior seniors in the industry, but I have only heard of it and have not seen it (mainly because this word is a bit prohibitive and daunting when I look at the name). This time, I was fortunate to be "forced" as an editor to carefully read Mr. Chen's interpretation of the "Theory of Change", and the first thought after reading it: Isn't this the "divination and deduction" technique in the public welfare project industry haha It's just more scientific, logical and evidence-based. I've thought of the advertising slogan - I don't have a clue about the project? Let's use the "Theory of Change" to make a divination! Theory of Change (TOC) should be a term that is both familiar and unfamiliar to many people. Familiarity lies in the fact that I have often heard that it has appeared in many public welfare project management, social change, and social services, and sometimes I am even asked, "What is your theory of change?" ”。
It seems that it should be a concept that is closely related to us; But it is so strange because it has always been difficult to explain clearly, and it is easy to be confused by its name, "theory", and how advanced it is really "theory".
Another very important reason for this strangeness is that there are so many different understandings and applications of this concept that the former president and CEO of the Greater New Orleans Foundation, G. Albert RusgarAlbert Ruesga also pointed out that "the theory of change is inherently ambiguous".
So, is it a concept that can't be explained?
While there are many different understandings and applications of change theory, their core principles and frameworks are largely the same, which means that we are perfectly fineUse a concise framework to explain what change theory means, what it is, what it does, and what it does.
To help everyone understand what change theory is,Let's start with what it is and what it is.
First of all, change theory is not a "scientific principle" or "academic theory" as we usually understand it, and the reason why it is called "theory" is that it actually isIt's one of a kind"Theoretical ** or expectation of results"., which is also a "basis of evidence that helps us demonstrate why certain activities can be used to produce certain desired outcomes".
In addition, the theory of change is not a summary of the practices that have been carried out, butIt is an analysis and conceptionWhether it is correct or not has yet to be tested in practice.
From this information, we can also find that change theory is actually a kind of analysis and conception, a kind of theoretical ** and reasoning.
Therefore,We can summarize the theory of change as a description of the planned change process, including the desired long-term goal, and the prerequisites and assumptions necessary to achieve this goal, and construct the necessary path to achieve the long-term goal. It is usually presented in the form of graphics.
Or to put it simply, the theory of change is:
A visual thinking and analysis tool that helps us find a feasible path to change.
aAssumptions and abstractions about how the future will develop**. This ** is built on:
A realistic analysis of the current situation.
Self-assessment of the capacity to facilitate the change process.
on the basis of an analytical review of the hypothesis
A semi-structured change flow chart that links strategic actions to specific process outcomes and long-term goals.
A participatory and collaborative experiential learning analysis tool that facilitates a flexible and rigorous analysis process for complex processes of social change.
A process tool that helps us monitor our ideas and actions.
Here's a simple example to help you understand the tool:
As shown in the figure above, there is a theory of change to promote the employment of women who have been subjected to domestic violence, and the results show the process of a first-class change, including:
Expected to be achievedLong-term goals"Women who are victims of domestic violence gain long-term and subsistence employment".
To achieve this goal, it is necessary to have multiple layersPrerequisitesFor example, in the first layer: "Women who have suffered domestic violence have mastered the skills to cope with the plight of domestic violence", "Women who have suffered domestic violence have mastered vocational skills that are competitive in the market", and "Women who have suffered domestic violence are familiar with and have appropriate workplace behaviors"; In addition, the prerequisites for the second level, which must be met in order to achieve the first level of prerequisites (outcomes): "Women who have experienced domestic violence know how to get help and how to deal with the problems they encounter", "Women who have experienced domestic violence receive job placements", etc.
The prerequisites (outcomes) that should be taken to achieve the relevant onesInterventionActivities such as: "Psychological Counseling Support", "Crisis Intervention Support", "Vocational Skills Training", "Training for Employers to Hire Internships", etc.
and the external conditions necessary to ensure that this process of change is establishedAssumptions, i.e., prerequisites that are outside the control of the project or organization, but must exist. For example, "there are non-traditional vocational jobs suitable for women", "women are accepted by the non-traditional vocational job market", "women have the conditions and ability to learn and master non-traditional vocational skills", etc. These are not things that the project or organization can intervene in, but they are necessary to achieve the goals and prerequisites.
Change is achieved from the intervention, to the achievement of the preconditions (outcomes) at each level, and finally to the achievement of long-term goalsPathshows how change can be linked from the current state to a long-term goal (a vision of success) through multiple prerequisites.
Finally, it is important to be clear that long-term goals and preconditions are metIndicatorsto clarify the status and measurement basis for the goal and premise submission when it is achieved.
This change process must be a consensual and visual change process through a participatory approach, with the participation of key stakeholders, through in-depth discussion and analysis based on a comprehensive and adequate assessment of the current environment, relevant resources and self-capabilities. There are usually six essential elements: long-term goals, prerequisites, assumptions, interventions, change paths, and indicators.
In order to make it easier for you to understand, we will give a brief description of the basic concepts of the six elements in the table below, and show their application in practice with examples.
At this point, we have a relatively clear understanding of the theory of changeIt is clarified that the theory of change is not a "scientific principle" or an "academic theory", but an analytical tool used to explore and present the process of change.
In order to make better use of the theory of change, we also need to be clearAn effective theory of change should have the following characteristics:
Focus on issues and facts. Although the theory of change starts with a goal, it needs to be based on a clear understanding and analysis of the problem and its causes, and the setting of long-term goals must be based on a response to the problem or need.
In addition, the assumptions set must also be based on facts and objective evidence, and need to withstand the test of facts. If the goal does not respond to a practical and objective problem, and if the assumptions it inhabits do not correspond to the facts, then the basis of the theory of change is wrong.
The logical rigor of the path of change. Whether the theory of change is effective and whether it can successfully promote change depends largely on the logical rigor of the change path, which depends on a clear and in-depth analysis of the problem, which has been repeatedly verified.
The elements are harmonized. Elements must be bottom-up, interventions must ensure that preconditions are met, multiple preconditions must be able to ensure that long-term goals are achieved, and indicators must be able to effectively measure outcomes (prerequisites) and objectives, with assumptions that lead to an effective path of change.
In addition, the theory of change needs to be aligned with the capabilities and resources of the organization to ensure that the organization has the capacity and resources to implement the change process.
It is fully understood and recognized. The ideal theory of change should be a co-crystallization of the full participation of all stakeholders, or even practice, so there is a high degree of consensus.
But the reality is that change theory may be discussed and planned by a small group of people, so further sharing and discussion is needed to gain the necessary understanding and buy-in. A theory of change that is not understood and recognized, no matter how rigorously designed it is, cannot be implemented and implemented in the end, and it becomes a castle in the air with no practical significance.
In addition, change theory needs to be shared and discussed frequently, otherwise, over time, people's understanding of change theory will become blurred, and change theory will no longer be used as a guide for action, and change theory will lose its meaning.
Tested and iterated over and over again. The theory of change is only "the theoretical ** or expectation of the outcome", and this "theory" needs to be tested in practice. Although the "theory" must be verified and considered reasonable and feasible when it is constructed, social problems, the external environment, and the target audience are constantly changing, so it also needs to be reviewed regularly, repeatedly verified and adjusted as necessary.
Finally, we hope that this tool can better guide us in building good services, help us understand more clearly what ways and methods we will use to achieve a change plan, and lay the foundation for us to build a clearer intervention strategy. (End of this article).
Author: Chen Zhiqiang.
*:p MD development.