[Disk analysis].
After the expectation of interest rate cuts approaching in overseas markets, there was a wave of mighty ** trend, and then the Federal Reserve spoke hawkish again, causing US stocks to retreat, and there was a cooling-off period after the climax, but the external trend is still upward. The a** field is still the rhythm of bottoming, which has been repeatedly mentioned many times by riding bulls and bears, but whether you can understand it is just that the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 has obvious ups and downs, which is the phenomenon of capital diversion in the back and forth of funds. At present, although the index is at a relatively low level, the weak pattern is more obvious, and the adjustment cycle has not yet ended, and it is still necessary to wait for the best opportunity after the end of the bottom.
Ride a bull to see a bear spotThe uneven recovery in 2023 is expected to continue in 2024. The premiumization trend continues to be evident in related sectors such as travel and retail, and cost-effectiveness will be in the spotlight and will be the main support for profitable growth. The proportion of heavy positions in the large consumption sector has dropped to a historical low, the proportion of overweight has continued to decline, and the level of heavy position allocation in the large consumption sector is still high, with the proportion of the value of heavy positions in 23Q2 to the total market value of heavy positions held by 2035% (-301pcts), the overallocation ratio is 551% (-150pcts）。
The three major indexes collectively opened low, with more than 1,000 red plates in the two cities, and the theme plates of aquatic products, prefabricated vegetables, lithium mines and other concepts performed strongly, and the Internet, information security, cloud games and other sectors performed poorly. The first "China Automobile Charging and Swapping Ecological Conference is scheduled to be held in Fuyang, Hangzhou from December 19th to 21st, focusing on "charging and swapping infrastructure construction", "charging piles going to the countryside", "high-quality charging services", "battery swapping mode", "overseas exports", "vehicle network interaction" and other aspects of in-depth exchanges. The computing power leasing sector bottomed out and rebounded, Zhongfutong 20cm daily limit, Hongbo shares rose nearly 10%, Si Teqi, high-tech development and other high gains, just as water is inseparable from water supply services, electricity is inseparable from power services, to promote the development of the computing industry, it is also necessary to accelerate the construction of an integrated computing power service system.
At present, most lithium carbonate producers in Jiangxi have pressed the "pause button" at both ends of production and sales, due to the high cost of lepidolite lithium extraction, it has broken through the cost line of many lithium salt companies based on lithium mining, and all enterprises have significantly reduced production. Lottery concept changes to pull up,Donggang shares up limit,Jinling sports、Sports industry,Ministry of Finance data,1 to 10 months this year,A total of 4758 lottery tickets were sold nationwide7.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1649 percent year-on-year1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 530%。* The concept of medicine has changed locally, Changshan Pharmaceutical rose 17%, Borui Pharmaceutical, Hanyu Pharmaceutical, etc. have followed suit, Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche agreed to acquire ** drug developer Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion, and the drug candidate CT-388 has the same effect as Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss drug Zepbound.
The hydrogen energy sector is active against the trend, Sichuan Jinding, Huapei Power and other stocks followed up, and the China Fuel Cell Vehicle Conference was successfully held a few days ago, proposing four points such as "policy guidance, scenario first, innovation driven, and collaborative cohesion" to better promote the implementation of the high-speed strategy of hydrogen energy. Intelligent driving concept stocks are partial, Xingmin Zhitong straight line up the limit, Riying Electronics rose more than 5%, Weidi shares, Gaohong shares, etc. have followed suit, and the General Office of the Ministry of Transport recently issued the "Autonomous Vehicle Transportation Safety Service Guide (Trial)". Food, dairy, prefabricated vegetables and other consumer stocks continued to rise, Huifa Food 8 boards, Western Animal Husbandry 20cm limit, Sunshine Dairy, Yiming Food and other shares of the board, good store, black sesame and other stocks rose more than 5%, the large consumption sector showed obvious resistance**.
GEM:
[**Prediction].
The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower on Tuesday, falling more than 1% intraday at one point, and falling below 3,000 points several times intraday, showing obvious weakness**. The main funds did not shoot quickly after the 3000 point drop, and the brokerage stocks appeared to protect the disk, but it did not rise in the real sense, which led to the weak strength, which also shows that the adjustment has not ended, and the index may be further **. Blue chips are relatively weak, so let's pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can hold above 2980 points.
The ChiNext index fell more than 1% intraday on Tuesday and continued to fall after falling below 1,900 points, without any threshold support at all. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 plate is the whole line, and there is no ***, and the small and medium-sized innovation sector has shown signs of making up for the decline, which is a very obvious seesaw effect. The large consumption sector of the A** field is relatively resistant, and there is an obvious pattern of leading the rise, but if you look carefully at the tourism, hotel, liquor and other sectors, it is still among the first, and the prefabricated vegetables, pork, aquatic products and other sectors are strong. Next, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1870 points.
[Gold Rush Plan].
At present, the overall valuation level of A-shares has shown a high cost performance compared with other markets, the willingness of insurance funds to allocate equity is gradually increasing, institutional funds are also increasing the proportion of investment, and the development prospects and investment opportunities of some emerging industries and high-quality enterprises are still considerable. At present, the market is biased towards three main lines of investment opportunities: first, stable operating companies with low valuations and high dividends;The second is new technologies, new industries, new materials and other sunrise industries full of 'imagination', such as AI, intelligent driving, satellite communications, hydrogen energy, etc.;The third is high-quality growth companies, which benefit from industrial changes and market scale expansion, including but not limited to import substitution and export expansion.
Concepts such as prefabricated vegetables, seed industry, and lithium mines are the main participating sectors in the theme sector, while the net outflow of funds from concepts such as Huawei's computing power, Internet, and information security is relatively large. Ride a bull to see a bear spotThe notice proposes to tap the potential of the prefabricated vegetable market, accelerate the construction of prefabricated vegetable bases, and increase the attention of prefabricated vegetable companies, and leading companies are expected to accelerate their expansion. In the short term, with the recovery of consumption willingness and the rebound of the small and medium-sized catering boom, the layout of B-end channels such as banquets and chain restaurants will be advantageous.
The policy force, the inflection point of the consumption sector is gradually clear, external demand continues to weaken, the role of domestic demand in stimulating the economy is prominent, and the state has recently intensively introduced policies to boost the economy. In the context of the uncertain economic outlook and the intertwined game of stock funds, the market tends to speculate on short-term hot sectors or sectors with a margin of safety, and the "long slope and thick snow" consumption blue-chip valuation has been killed.
With the increasingly fierce competition in the domestic market and the steady growth of demand, the development of overseas markets is becoming a new path for more and more enterprises to explore. The leading company relies on the domestic high-quality first-class chain to output cost-effective products in the form of cross-border e-commerce or offline business cooperation, and shapes brand power through follow-up marketing operations.
In the medium and long term, promoting rural consumption and expanding new consumption is conducive to breaking through the bottleneck of expanding consumption and realizing the continuous expansion and transformation and upgrading of consumption scale. On the one hand, in the context of the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, the rural market has huge potential, or an important starting point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth. On the other hand, new consumption is a series of new consumption formats, new models, new scenarios and new services formed by the innovation and application of new generation technologies such as the Internet, digital technology, artificial intelligence, and blockchain.