If you want to know more exciting content, come and follow My SteelOverview:Recently, the domestic chemical coal market has shown a downward trend. The main production area maintains normality, the demand side continues to purchase rigid needs, the relationship between supply and demand in the coal market is still loose, the sales situation in the pit mouth market is general, the surrounding coal plants and the first business operation is cautious, only to maintain the rigid demand for transportation, and the coal mine price adjustment information is mainly reduced, with a single range of 10-20 yuan tons; In this context, how will the chemical coal market perform? This article will conduct a comprehensive analysis from many aspects such as origin, port, import, and downstream.
Market coal**Remain stableCoal prices were adjusted in a narrow range
The production and sales of coal mines remain normalized, and large state-owned mines are still dominated by long-term shipments, and coal is relatively stable. At present, the downstream terminal demand has not been significantly improved, the port is lower, the market atmosphere in the mining area is mainly wait-and-see, there are fewer vehicles queuing up to the mine, the enthusiasm of coal plants and merchants is weak, the procurement is relatively cautious, and the coal mine adjusts the coal price at the pit mouth in a narrow range according to its own sales; Shaanxi Q5500 reported 680-700 yuan tons, Q5800 reported 750-780 yuan tons, Q6000 reported 810-850 yuan tons, Q6100 reported 840-865 yuan tons, Inner Mongolia Q5500 reported 660-710 yuan tons, Q5000 reported 570-630 yuan tons, Q4500 reported 480-540 yuan tons.
Ports** were lowered in a narrow rangeOverall demand is still insufficient
Port MarketLatest**5500 calories 910-930 yuan ton, 5000 calories 805-820 yuan ton, Q4500 calories 705-715 yuan ton,The demand performance in the off-season is poor, the market trading continues to be weak, the business sentiment is weak, the downstream procurement demand is cold, and the overall transaction performance is poor. At present, under the influence of cost inversion, the willingness of spot merchants to ship is low, and the downstream is basically wait-and-see, and the market trading continues to be deadlocked. According to mysteel statistics, as of March 5, the inventory of the eight ports around the Bohai Sea was 205080,000 tons, a decrease of 7 from the previous day60,000 tons. 
The price of imported coal is strong, and the terminal takesThe cost of goods has increased
Recently, coastal power plants have successively tendered for imported coal, and the receiving price of Q3800 power plants is around 560-570 yuan tons. At present, the freight rate of Indonesian return to Panama continues to ** to 9About 8 US dollars per ton, superimposed with fewer spot pallets in Indonesia, foreign mines** may have a slight upward space; However, due to the weakening of the domestic trade market, market participants have different views on the outlook for the future, and they mainly operate cautiously. It is expected that the import market may operate temporarily in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of power plant receiving prices and foreign mines on ** in the later stage.
The number of days available for power plant inventory is optimisticThe market has a limited level of procurement
Entering March, the temperature in the north and south will begin to rise significantly, and gradually rise to the normal level of the same period of the year, the characteristics of the off-season of market coal consumption will gradually appear, the daily consumption will basically show a downward trend, and the probability of large-scale procurement of follow-up terminals is small. According to MySteel statistics, as of March 1, the total coal storage in the sample area of 257 power plants across the country was 4,46090,000 tons, down 4210,000 tons, daily consumption of 24290,000 tons, an increase of 1400,000 tons, available days 184 days, down 1. month-on-month3 days.
Coal consumption in the chemical industry remains normalIt is difficult to substantially improve market demand
From the analysis of domestic coal-to-methanol enterprises, the current chemical coal price is still weak, the price of raw coal to the plant of methanol enterprises is basically stable, the demand side is slowly recovering and still maintains the rhythm of rigid demand procurement, the actual market demand release is limited, and the number of days of coal storage is 8-10 days.
According to Mysteel chemical data, according to Mysteel chemical data, as of March 1, the domestic methanol market started 10138%, unchanged from last week; Profit-wise,According to 6The daily mysteel thermal coal chemical enterprises to the plant coal data showsInner Mongolia Q5500 raw coal to the plant ** average isYuan tonsIt is reported that the coal consumption per ton of coal-to-methanol enterprises is 21-2.3 tons or so, with an average of 22 tons of calculation, of which the amount of raw coal is 16 tons, fuel coal 06 tons, plus the rest of the artificial hydropower cost of 500 yuan tons, the cost of methanol per ton is 2140 yuan, but the average price of the low-end methanol market in Inner Mongolia today is 1950 yuan tons, and the theoretical profit of coal methanol in the Inner Mongolia market is -222 yuan tons.
To sum up, the global coal market is stable, domestic imports are increasing, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue to operate at a high level; On the demand side, the temperature is rising, the civil power load is falling, the overall pressure on the power plant inventory is small, the terminal is currently mainly supplemented by long-term agreements, replenished on demand, the demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see, and it is expected that the short-term thermal coal market may maintain a weak operation.
Disclaimer: MySteel strives to use the information accurately, objectively and fairly in the content and opinions expressed in the information, but does not guarantee whether it needs to be changed as necessary. The information provided by MySteel is for the customer's decision-making reference only, and does not constitute a direct recommendation for the customer's decision-making, and the customer should not replace its own independent judgment, and any decision made by the customer has nothing to do with mysteel. The copyright of this report belongs to mysteel, without permission, prohibited**, violators will be prosecuted.