If you want to know more exciting content, come and pay attention to my return to the polysilicon market after the Steel Festival. At present, most of the market is wait-and-see, and the overall situation is relatively calm. Approaching the next round of signing, most of the material companies have sufficient orders, polysilicon inventories are still in a controllable range, and n-type materials are still tight, and it is expected that there will be no major adjustments. However, whether the next round of signing orders can continue to rise depends on the game situation in the downstream silicon wafer sector.
Wafers** are running steadily. Wafer manufacturers still maintain a high level of production scheduling, the overall utilization rate is running at a high level, wafer growth is maintained, and output continues to increase. However, downstream cell manufacturers are still in the holiday stage, resuming work slowly, and the market is thin, and most of them are wait-and-see, making it difficult to effectively digest the huge wafer inventory. At present, the wafer inventory level is rising, and it will operate under pressure.
Cells** are running steadily. Cell makers have begun to resume work one after another, but the resumption of work and production has been slow. The overall transaction of the market is relatively flat, the upstream and downstream market demand has not seen obvious benefits, and the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and most of them have a wait-and-see attitude. Battery manufacturers are planning to increase the number of p-type cells, but the downstream is more resistant to this, and buyers and sellers are still in a game.
There was no major adjustment in the module market this week, and it was basically the same as before the holiday. The leading enterprises have resumed work and production this week, but they have not fully recovered; Due to the small number of orders and the lack of new orders, most of the second- and third-tier module manufacturers are still in a state of suspension and vacation, and the utilization rate remains low. Some manufacturers have released the news of the increase, and the market is mainly wait-and-see. At present, the terminal demand has not risen, and whether it can actually be the first to pay attention to the change of market sentiment and the actual terminal recovery.
This week's photovoltaic industry chain ** trend:
This week's average price change at a glance:
part.1 Market analysis of the photovoltaic industry chain
1.1 Polysilicon analysis
The polysilicon market ran smoothly in the first week after the holiday. Polysilicon** maintained stable operation, consistent with the pre-holiday period. Polysilicon compound feeding 620 yuan kg, the same as before the Spring Festival; Polysilicon densifier 585 yuan kg, the same as before the Spring Festival; Polysilicon cauliflower material 530 yuan kg, the same as before the Spring Festival; N-type material was 72 yuan kg, which was the same as before the Spring Festival.
This week, polysilicon ** maintained stable operation, the signing of orders after the holiday was flat, the normal production of enterprises was scheduled, the start of construction was stable, and most of the market was wait-and-see, and the overall situation was relatively calm. Approaching the next round of signing, the upstream and downstream are currently negotiating for next month's orders. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream wafer pulling plants remained high, which supported the development of polysilicon. However, against the backdrop of increasing wafer inventories, the utilization rate of wafer pulling fabs is expected to gradually decline. It is not expected that there will be a major adjustment in the short term. However, whether the next round of signing orders can continue to rise depends on the transmission of downstream silicon wafers and the operating rate of production scheduling.
Polysilicon market** (yuan kg).
1.2 Wafer** analysis
In the first week after the holiday, the wafer market was thin, and inventory pressure was increasing. Wafers** continued to operate steadily, consistent with the pre-holiday period. The average price of P-type M10 wafers is 2025 yuan film, the same as before the Spring Festival; The average price of P-type G12 wafers is 2925 yuan tablets, the same as before the Spring Festival; The average price of N-type M10 is 2125 yuan piece, the same as before the Spring Festival; The average price of N-type G12 is 32 yuan, the same as before the Spring Festival.
This week, wafers** maintained stable operation, wafer manufacturers' production schedules remained at a high level, operating rates remained at a high level, and wafer output continued to increase. However, at present, the inventory level of silicon wafers is high, and the inventory pressure is high, especially for n-type silicon wafers. In terms of downstream demand, the resumption of production and resumption of work of battery factories is relatively slow, and only some production lines are retained to maintain operation, mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the demand is relatively flat, and the wait-and-see situation is relatively strong, making it difficult to effectively digest the current wafer inventory, and wafer factories are generally facing considerable shipping pressure. The follow-up silicon wafer** will operate under pressure under the background of the downward adjustment of the downstream battery ring, the demand for silicon wafers has not increased, and the inventory is high.
Silicon wafersMarket** (RMBtablets
1.3 Cell analysis
In the first week after the holiday, the battery market as a whole was relatively flat, and the cell market remained stable, in line with the pre-holiday period. The average price of P-type M10 is 038 yuan watts, the same as before the Spring Festival; The average price of P-type G12 this week is 039 yuan watts, the same as before the Spring Festival; The average price of M10 monocrystalline TOPCon cells this week was 046 yuan watts, the same as before the Spring Festival.
This week, cells** continued to operate steadily. Cell companies have begun to resume work one after another, but the resumption of work and production is relatively slow, and there are still battery companies in the market that are still on vacation, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly, and the overall transaction volume of the battery market is relatively flat. On the demand side, except for those with a large number of orders, the rest of the downstream module manufacturers are still on holiday, and the demand for cells has not improved significantly in a short period of time, and the demand for upstream and downstream markets has not been significantly improved. At present, cell manufacturers are planning to increase the price of p-type cells, but the downstream module sector is relatively resistant to this, and buyers and sellers are still in a game, and whether the subsequent increase can be successfully increased will depend on the acceptance of module manufacturers.
CellsMarket** (RMBtile
1.4 PV module analysis
As the Chinese New Year approaches, module market demand has dropped to freezing point, and module ** has been lowered again this week. The average price of 182 mono and monofacial PERC modules is 093 yuan w, compared with last week**190%。The average price of 210 monofacial mono PERC modules is 095 yuan w, compared with last week**185%。The average price of 182 monocrystalline bifacial PERC modules is 092 yuan w, compared with last week**128%, and the average price of 210 mono bifacial PERC modules is 096 yuan w, compared with last week**203%。
With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, some module makers have extended their holiday hours, and midstream and upstream manufacturers are planning price increases, but the price increase has not yet been transmitted to modules, and modules** remain sluggish. Module production is expected to fall to the 30-33GW range in February, continuing its downward trend, and the demand side will continue to be sluggish.
At present, the domestic module market is still relatively sluggish, and the module bidding of domestic central enterprises has continued to decline. Previously, PowerChina's 42GW module centralized procurement P-type module reported 0The lowest price of 806 yuan watts has now broken through 0At 8 yuan watts, Huaneng Group's module procurement bid was opened, and the lowest ** refreshed the industry's new low, falling to 079 yuan watts. Recently, the price of upstream raw materials has been rising, but it has not yet driven modules, and even the modules that have been sold at low prices in the market are still declining as the Spring Festival approaches.
Photovoltaic modulesMarket** (RMBtile
part.2 Photovoltaic auxiliary materials**
2.1 Weekly comparison of photovoltaic auxiliary materials**
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