A lot of people are hindsight, waiting for things to happen, knowing the results, and then putting on a posture that I knew would be like this. After the Northern Song Dynasty lost the battle to recover Yanyun, there was no one to talk nonsense in contemporary times, but in modern times, many keyboard warriors began to publish high theories, quoting scriptures, and saying as if they had known that the Northern Song Dynasty would be defeated. This is all empty vernacular after realizing it, as the saying goes, you won't sleep if you know the kang. These later generations understood that they did not consider the war situation at that time at all, and pretended to understand the ready-made results, and if they were placed before the battle, they would all become dumb.
Under the historical environment at that time, no one dared to say that the Northern Song Dynasty would lose this battle, and at that time, the Northern Song Dynasty court was not a person who understood, and some people opposed the war, but they were not worried that they could not be defeated, but legally speaking, no one would doubt the outcome of this war. Because this is a battle without suspense, theoretically deduced, there is no possibility of defeat at all. But there are too many accidents in history, and this time it was a combination of multiple accidental factors that eventually produced this completely unexpected ending.
The Song army took more road maps from Yanshan Mansion.
If we have a basis for speaking, we might as well calm our minds first, bring ourselves into the pre-war situation, empathize, imagine that we are the decision-makers of the Northern Song Dynasty, and analyze whether there will be accidents in this battle according to the actual situation at that time.
The defeat of the Song Dynasty army was Ye Luchun, who had just established himself as the emperor of the Northern Liao, let's first see what kind of situation he was in.
Liao is divided into five capitals, Shangjing Linhuang Mansion, Zhongjing Dading Mansion, Xijing Datong Mansion, Nanjing Xijin Mansion, and Tokyo Liaoyang Mansion. The emperor of the Liao State has the custom of making bowls at four o'clock, usually taking the Dading Mansion in Zhongjing as the capital, and when he arrives at the spring water and autumn mountains, when the bowl is made at four o'clock, the emperor of the Liao State will change the station between several other capitals according to the different seasons.
Among the five capitals, Nanjing Xijin Mansion and Xijing Datong Mansion were within the scope of the Sixteen Prefectures of Yanyun, which used to belong to the Central Plains ruling area, and were later ceded to the Khitan by Shi Jingjiao. Later, the Jin Kingdom rose and quickly occupied the Shangjing Linhuang Mansion and the Tokyo Liaoyang Mansion of the Liao State. Seeing that there was an opportunity, the Northern Song Dynasty began to unite with the Jin State at the instigation of Tong Guan, intending to carve up the land of the Liao State. After the destruction of the Liao State, the Northern Song Dynasty recovered the land ceded by Shi Jingjiao before, that is, the Liao Nanjing Xijin Mansion and the Xijing Datong Mansion, while the other three capitals belonged to the Liao State. This is the historical "Maritime Alliance".
At the end of the war, the Liao State not only took Shangjing and Tokyo, but also Zhongjing and Xijing. In this way, only Nanjing Xijin Mansion remained in the five capitals of the Liao State, which is now the Beijing area. The emperor of the Liao state has become an emperor in exile. With the remnants of the defeated army, he hid in the mountains, and the Liao State was basically destroyed. If it weren't for the appointment with the Northern Song Dynasty, it is estimated that the Jin State would have taken Nanjing Xijin Mansion together.
It is Yelu Chun who guards the Xijin Mansion in Nanjing, in terms of seniority, he is the cousin of Emperor Liao Tianzuo, and he is also a serious royal family, because the news of the war is not clear, many people do not know the whereabouts of Emperor Tianzuo Yelu Yanxi, and it is even rumored that he has died in the rebellion. Yanshan Mansion has become the last remaining controllable land of the Liao State. So everyone elected Yeluchun as the emperor and established a small government of Northern Liao, which only governed Yanshan Prefecture.
The small court of Western Liao.
This was the situation at that time, the Jin State occupied the four capitals in the five capitals, and had already invaded Chen Juyong Pass, threatening the safety of Nanjing Yeluchun at any time, and there was no danger between the Northern Song Dynasty and Nanjing, and the Southern Song Dynasty soldiers Chen Xiongzhou could go north at any time, and Yeluchun's Northern Liao regime was attacked by two powerful forces, which was basically a dead end.
Yeluchun also has no ambition to restore the Great Liao, it's not that he doesn't want to, it's impossible, he only hopes to keep the last piece of land in the Liao State, and then declare himself a vassal to the Jin State or the Northern Song Dynasty, and is willing to be a vassal state and be an emperor. So Yeluchun surrendered to Jin five times, willing to be a vassal forever, and called him a minister, as long as he retained the name of Northern Liao. The Jin Kingdom all refused, because it had already made an agreement with the Northern Song Dynasty, and the Nanjing Xijin Mansion was captured by the Northern Song Dynasty, and the land belonged to the Northern Song Dynasty.
Yelu Chun saw that the people who claimed to be ministers to the Jin State did not accept the tribute, so he had to turn to the Great Song Dynasty to claim the minister, hoping to become a vassal state of the Great Song Dynasty, and offered to no longer ask the Northern Song Dynasty for a penny of annual tribute. However, what the Northern Song Dynasty wanted was to accept Yanyun as a county, not the vassal state of Northern Liao. As a result, the negotiations broke down, and the Northern Song army began to put pressure on Yeluchun.
The situation faced by Yeluchun's Northern Liao was that no matter what, it would be difficult to escape again, and it would be difficult to achieve the goal of voluntarily demoting to a vassal state. Under the attack of Jin and the Northern Song Dynasty, the demise was almost certain, the difference was in whose hands it was.
This was the real situation at that time, and in this case, everyone would think that Yeluchun could only give up his dream of keeping Northern Liao as a vassal state and completely surrender one way to go. As for the Jin State, the Jin State would not easily agree because it had an agreement with the Song Dynasty in advance, and Yeluchun had only one way to surrender to the Song Dynasty.
If you don't stand in the position where the latecomers already know the result and think about it, the Song Dynasty is faced with a poor worm like Yeluchun of Northern Liao, who is currying favor with begging on both sides, and it is suppressed by its ally Jin State in the rear, will it still think that it will fail to clean up Yeluchun?
The Northern Song Dynasty army was weak, but not so weak that the keyboard warrior said it was so unbearable, looking back at history, how did the Northern Song Dynasty army abuse the Western Xia Iron Harrier in the northwest, recover the four states, and force the Western Xia emperor to be a vassal? Let's look at how the Great Song army only took three months to collapse Fang La's hundreds of thousands of troops?
But in fact, the Northern Song Dynasty really failed, this is a fact, it is undeniable, but this is not inevitable, the Northern Song Dynasty is not weak enough to face Yeluchun's 30,000 horses and horses will be defeated, it is not the true embodiment of the strength of both sides, but the result of several consecutive low-level mistakes and unexpected accidents. The reason is similar to the strong being accidentally knocked out by the weak in the boxing ring, although the odds are very small, and it is not impossible to take the burden. Although the Great Song Dynasty is not a strong man, it should not be at the same level at all compared to Yeluchun's Northern Liao.
Northern Song Dynasty Forbidden Army. Let's analyze the low-level mistakes made by the Song Dynasty army, and what accidents they encountered, which finally led to the dragonworm descending and the grasshopper shaking the tree.
The first reason is the wrong positioning; As mentioned earlier, Yeluchun has been forced into a corner, and they have no choice at all, their only way out is to surrender, so the Northern Song Dynasty did not take Yeluchun as a strong enemy, and sent large troops to press the border, also in order to put pressure on Northern Liao, and was not ready to fight at all. The team is going to pick the fruit, not desperately, can such a team fight?
The second reason is that the mentality is different; The Liao State was destroyed by the Jin, and he must have hated the Jin people, but his hatred for the Great Song Dynasty was far greater than that of the Jin people. Jin Guo is the enemy, after all, the Liao State bullied them so much that they couldn't stand it before they resisted, but they didn't have the ability to fight, so they could admit it. But the Song Dynasty is different, the Song Dynasty and the Liao State since the "Yuanyuan Alliance", basically get along quite well, the two countries communicate with each other, the border has set up a field, and it has been peaceful for more than 100 years. It is a good ally, but when the Liao State encountered a crisis, this ally did not give any support, and even broke the covenant, fell into the well, and stabbed the knife in the back, how the Liao people looked at the people of the Song Dynasty can be imagined.
The Alliance of the Abyss. In addition, the Liao State has been at the end of the road at this time, and has been forced to a dead end, as the saying goes, the mourning army will win, and the Liao State has reached the point of breaking the cauldron and sinking the boat, putting it to death and resurrection, and everyone will fight desperately. On the other hand, the Song Dynasty thought that it was to easily pick fruits, and those who had some ways in the court wanted to make some political capital from this major victory, and Tong Guan, Cai You, and Wang Anzhong all came over to gild. From top to bottom, no one is holding the idea of going out for the country and the horse leather shroud, they are all full of ** Houlu, glorifying their ancestors, and no one is willing to really work hard. When teams with two mentalities come together, the results are predictable.
The third reason; strategic mistakes; Even if the Great Song Dynasty had already made two mistakes, the pressure on the Northern Liao was still not small, especially the second expedition to Liao, which was already mentally prepared for war, and the Northwest Army with combat experience was also mobilized. First of all, Guo Yaoshi couldn't stand it and surrendered to the Song Dynasty, and the Song Dynasty got a part of Zhuozhou and Yizhou without how to fight. Then Guo Yaoshi, who knew the inside story, offered a plan to attack Yanshan Mansion.
I have to say that this sneak attack was still very successful, the Song army successfully broke the city, the outer city of the Liao capital was broken, and the remaining inner city should not be able to support it for too long, but under the good situation, it made a mistake that should not be made. The Song Dynasty army did not take the inner city in one go, but began to expel the Khitan and Xi people in the outer city, these Khitan and Xi people who lived in the outer city, most of them were civilians and merchants, after the city was broken, they just wanted to save their lives and would not be the enemy of the Song Dynasty army, but the burning and looting of the Song Dynasty army aroused a strong resistance, causing chaos in the outer city, at this time Xiao Gan, who got the news, also killed back to the city to rescue, and the Liao army in the inner city also took the opportunity to kill, the Song Dynasty army suffered from the enemy on its back, suffered heavy losses, and Gao Shi declared war and died, Only Guo Yaoshi and Yang Keshi fled down the city with a few personal soldiers, and the rest of the army was wiped out.
Guo Yaoshi escaped from Yanjing City.
Originally, at the same time as Guo Yaoshi's sneak attack on Yanjing, he also sent Liu Guangshi to be responsible for responding, but Liu Guangshi was at odds with Gao Shixuan and Yang Keshi, deliberately delayed, and let Xiao Gan go back to support, which was another reason for the failure of this sneak attack.
Even if Guo Yaoshi failed to attack Yanjing, Liu Guangshi's father Liu Yanqing's troops did not suffer much loss, and their troops were much stronger than the Liao army, but Liu Yanqing, Liu Guangshi, father and son, who were as timid as rats, burned the camp and ran back without starting a war, resulting in the failure of the second invasion of Liao.
The above are all kinds of mistakes, which belong to human factors, and there are non-human factors in the failure of the Song army, that is, bad luck. They met one of the best cattle in Chinese history, Yelu Dashi. However, at that time, few people knew the name of Yelu Dashi.
Yelu Dashi is the eighth grandson of Yelu Abaoji, the Taizu of Liao, both civil and military, and the founder of the Western Liao Empire, who started with hundreds of people and created a powerful empire in Central Asia. The defeat of 100,000 Muslim allies in the Battle of Katwan caused the Seljuk power to withdraw from the Hanzhong region, and the former subjects of the Western Karakhanid State and Khorezm were both part of the Western Liao, making the Western Liao a great power in Central Asia in one fell swoop. Because of the great deeds of Jerodashi. Nestorians even believed that he was the legendary priest King John. Historians also believe that Yelu Dashi is one of the greatest historical figures of the Chinese nation.
Western Liao, the hegemon of Central Asia.
Yelu Dashi was the main supporter of Yeluchun's claim to be emperor, and Yeluchun should have surrendered directly, because of his instigation to resist to the death in the Northern Song Dynasty. When the Northern Song Dynasty met him, it was really unlucky, and the cooked duck flew like this.
It was already bad luck to meet a god-like opponent, who knew that the misfortune was not a one-way street, and the Song Dynasty met a pig-like teammate Li Chuwen again. Originally, he supported Yeluchun as the emperor, Li Chuwen was also one of the leaders, and his status was very high, he was the prime minister of Northern Liao, and when Yeluchun was dying, he secretly awarded Li Chuwen as the marshal of the Panhan Mabu Army, and entrusted him with the future. Originally, it had strong political capital and could influence the situation in the Northern Liao Imperial Court, but he was too timid and wanted to hijack the Empress Dowager Xiao Pu and her daughter to return to the Song Dynasty, but he hesitated and did not make a decision for a long time. As a result, he was seized power by Xiao Gan and Yelu Dashi, and the army was defeated, and he was also killed by Xiao Gan.
The Great Stone Statue of Jerod.
Yelu Dashi and Xiao Gan are very powerful, and there is still a little confidence to deal with the Northern Song Dynasty, but there is still a certain gap in the face of the Jin soldiers, the Northern Song Dynasty failed to attack Liao twice, so they had to ask the Jin soldiers to help, the Jin soldiers broke into Juyong Pass, Yelu Dashi fled with the Queen Mother, and defected to Yelu Yanxi, Yelu Yanxi killed the Queen Mother Xiao Puxian, Yelu Dashi was captured by Wanyan Lou in the Longmen Wall, and then escaped away to Mobei and established a strong Western Liao regime. Xiao Gan returned to his Xi tribe and established himself as emperor, but was later annihilated by Guo Yaoshi.
Later generations talked about the failure of this expedition to Liao, and the analysis was overwhelmingly believed that the combat effectiveness of the Song Dynasty army was too scum, and it was undeniable that the Song Dynasty army had many shortcomings, such as the army system and the lack of war horses. But the weakness is only relative, it is much worse than the Jin State, but it has not yet reached the extent that even the remnants of the Liao State can not deal with it, otherwise the Northern Song Dynasty will still be able to maintain the territory under the repeated harassment of the Western Xia, Northwest Zafan, Liao, and Tubo Departments. Especially in the Song Huizong Dynasty, not only completely pacified the northwest miscellaneous, but also defeated the Western Xia one after another, recovered the four states, and quickly pacified the Fangla Songjiang uprising. If the failure of the conquest of Liao is completely attributed to the poor strength of the army of the Song Dynasty, it is not objective, this is because the situation at that time is not clear, and I don't know if other reasons can be found, so the reason is completely attributed to the weak military strength. Most of the failures in this battle are due to decision-making, and the other is that the luck is too bad, and the success is missed again and again, of course, the combat power is also one of the reasons, if the Song Dynasty army is as strong as the Jin soldiers, even if there is a little mistake, it will not fail.
What I want to express is that history is not so simple and clear, the ancients were not all fools, what you can see at a glance, they can see better, the real history is much more complex than what we see on the surface, you must have a deep understanding of the situation at that time, in order to find the real reasons, in order to understand history more comprehensively, to understand historical figures.