Treasury bonds hit a record high, of which the most actively traded ten-year treasury bonds** refreshed the high point for many years, indicating that the market is abundant, and the decline in bond yields has also promoted the rise of a reasonable price-earnings ratio, while the decline in financing costs of listed companies is also beneficial to the development of enterprises, and the dependence on IPOs has decreased, which is good for the future trend of the whole market.
First of all, the main result of the national debt is very abundant. Only the loose capital side can support the continuous decline of the yield of government bonds, and the abundant capital side will also play a role, that is, the current trend of the capital side also confirms the fact that the capital side is loose.
If the capital is abundant and further developed, it can support the emergence of multiple funds to continuously promote the trend of new highs in the stock index, because the first has explained the profit example to investors, and some investors have made money in the first place, and their relatives and friends around them will also actively invest in the first place, or return to the first place, and the capital will also increase simultaneously, and the final result is that every time the market has become an opportunity for new funds to enter the market, and the special valuation will also enter a virtuous circle.
Secondly, the decline in Treasury yields has also had an impact on the reasonable valuation of **. If the yield on Treasuries is 3%, then the reasonable price-to-earnings ratio is 33 times, but if the yield falls to 25%, then the reasonable valuation of ** will reach 40 times. That is to say, even if the performance of listed companies has not changed in any way, just because of the change in the reasonable price-earnings ratio, it can support a significant trend in the stock price. Because if investors invest money in ** or treasury bonds, according to the principle of profit averaging, since the yield of treasury bonds falls, the expected yield of ** should also fall simultaneously, so it pushes the stock price.
In addition, because the market is abundant, the financing cost of listed companies will also decrease. This can help listed companies save a lot of financial costs, and then improve the profit level of listed companies, after all, the interest saved is profits, so the loose capital can also increase the earnings per share of listed companies.
At the same time, because the cost of financing not only decreases, but also becomes easier, the credit market will change from the company begging for bank loans to the bank begging for customer loans, so that many companies that originally counted on IPO to obtain funds will also give up the IPO because of the lower cost of loans and more convenient to give up the IPO, and change to bank loans, which can also reduce the supply of ** to a certain extent, which is also a good thing for the stock of **.
In short, all aspects of the factors that affect the stock price trend, bond market funds and ** funds are interconnected, the yield of the bond market will affect the yield of **, the most direct is the value center of **, that is, compared with the yield of the bond market is the average expected rate of return, and it is limited to those companies with profitable performance and investment value. For the poor performance stocks with greater investment risk or delisting risk, even if the yield of treasury bonds falls to 0, the stock price is also supported by speculative forces.
Beijing Business Daily commentator Zhou Kejing.