The United States and South Korea will hold the largest joint military exercise in five years, named Freedom Shield 2024, from March 4 to 14, 2024. This year's exercise included computer simulation training and field training, and the number of joint field exercises almost doubled to 48 compared to last year. The drills are expected to include aerial assault and tactical live-fire and bombing drills.
The ROK-U.S. Freedom Shield military exercise is conducted in response to the growing nuclear threat from North Korea and is designed to strengthen the defense and response capabilities of the U.S. and South Korean forces and demonstrate a firm readiness to respond to North Korean provocations. The timing of the exercises comes at a high point in tensions on the Korean Peninsula against the backdrop of a series of tests conducted by North Korea and its declaration of South Korea as its "main enemy."
The three major features of the exercise include its large scale and diverse curriculum, which reflect the strategic considerations of South Korea and the United States in the face of the North Korean threat:
First of all, the scale of the military exercises is the same as last year, but the number of actual combat exercises has doubled. It shows that South Korea and the United States believe that the threat to North Korea is intensifying, especially the rapid development of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities and the strengthening of military capacity building brought about by DPRK-Russia cooperation.
Second, the detection and interception of cruise missiles against North Korea will be one of the focuses of the exercise; It shows that the ROK and the United States have made targeted arrangements for the military exercises. North Korea relies on cruise and submarine-launched missiles to ensure its nuclear counterattack capability, while cruise missiles are relatively more mature, so South Korea and the United States are focused on weakening North Korea's nuclear deterrent capabilities.
Finally, the location of the exercise was not scheduled near the border; It shows that although South Korea and the United States are demonstrating military power, they are also avoiding escalating the conflict.
How will North Korea react?
North Korea is likely to respond strongly in several ways: harshly refuting South Korea-US military exercises, stepping up strategic test launches as a warning, and accelerating defense buildup, including plans to launch reconnaissance satellites, to counter military pressure from South Korea and the United States. And with South Korea and the U.S. stepping up military action, North Korea is more likely to advance its defense and strategic development plans.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to escalate from 2024 onwards, and hostile relations between the two Koreas are intensifying. North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, has positioned South Korea as a "hostile country," while South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol also mentioned in his New Year's speech that the construction of an upgraded South Korea-US "extended deterrence" system will be completed.
This tension is reflected not only in rhetoric, but also in the military actions of both sides. South Korea and the United States have continued joint military exercises since late last year, while North Korea has strengthened cooperation with Russia by intensively testing cruise missiles and dismantling institutions related to South Korean affairs, in response to Western isolation and sanctions.
In addition, trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan is also strengthening, and in the face of challenges from North Korea and Russia, the three countries, guided by the spirit of Camp David, have publicly stated that they want to target these countries. This situation has led to further aggravation of antagonism and tension on the peninsula, forming a confrontation between South Korea, the United States, Japan, and North Korea and Russia.
Against this backdrop, the ROK-US "Freedom Shield" joint military exercise may exacerbate military and political tensions on the Korean Peninsula and exacerbate the vicious circle of "strong against strong" between North Korea, South Korea and the United States! Such a situation could have a negative impact on regional security and increase instability on the peninsula.
How will the situation on the peninsula develop?
This year is expected to be the most tense year for the Korean Peninsula in recent years, and there are several major risks:
1. Tensions between the DPRK and the ROK have intensified. Relations between North Korea and South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol have deteriorated further nearly two years after their contacts. At present, there is a lack of effective communication between the DPRK and the ROK, and the confrontation is obvious. The two countries are not only demonstrating their power in the conventional way, but also competing with each other in the strategic aspect, such as North Korea's cruise missile test launch and South Korea's intensified development of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. 、
2. The cooperation mechanism between major countries has failed. Due to the U.S. strategy of great power competition, cooperation between China and the United States and Russia and the United States on the Korean issue has decreased, and communication between China and South Korea on Korean Peninsula affairs has also become limited. The United States, Japan, and South Korea have revealed their intention to contain China in their talks on dealing with the North Korean issue, which is not conducive to the coordinated settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue.
3. Military action increases the risk of conflict. While North Korea, South Korea, and the United States do not want to see war break out, military action by all sides actually increases the likelihood of conflict. In particular, the U.S. policy shift, which prioritizes great-power competition, has weakened the importance of the issue of denuclearization and exacerbated military tensions.
4. Potentially high-risk moments. Several key moments this year could be high-risk periods, including South Korea's hosting of the Global Summit for Democracy, South Korea's parliamentary elections, and the eve of the United States**. During these periods, there may be volatile events such as misfire.
There are critics commenting:The main risk of the peninsula problem is that everyone is on the gas pedal, but almost no one is on the brakes. History has proven time and again that military confrontation and tension will only lead to more uncertainty and instability, and are not a long-term solution for either side.
At this critical juncture, we hope that the countries of the peninsula region and the international community will work together to seek a solution to their differences through diplomacy and dialogue. Peace is not only the aspiration of every nation, but also the common aspiration of all mankind. For the sake of long-term regional prosperity and global security and stability, it is particularly important to promote dialogue, strengthen cooperation and build mutual trust. We must learn from history, avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, and work together to maintain peace and create a harmonious and stable Korean Peninsula!