Summary:The stock price does not rise but falls (welcome to pay attention to girlfriend finance).
Written by |Honey Girl
This is the 1465th original article of @闺蜜Finance
Haidilao, which once stated that it "does not accept any form of joining", recently "slapped" itself in the face.
On March 4, 2024, Haidilao disclosed an announcement showing that the company has opened to join. Haidilao said that the introduction of the franchise franchise model will continue to ensure the management level and customer experience, enhance operational capabilities, introduce more high-quality resources, improve operational efficiency, and help the Haidilao brand expand to more regions.
As soon as the news came out, reactions from all walks of life were mixed. Haidilao Hong Kong stocks** first rose in early trading and then fell; On social media, there are many worries about whether Haidilao's services and dishes will continue to decline.
First of all, let's talk about the "slap in the face" of open joining. In Mimei's view, in fact, this is not a slap in the face, after all, the market is changing, and enterprises cannot remain the same.
Once, Haidilao did say that it would not accept any form of joining, and the time was probably in 2012, nearly 12 years ago.
In 2012, Haidilao was in the beginning of an upward phase: that year, Haidilao began to expand overseas, and the first overseas store opened in Singapore; It was also that year that the People's Portal of Jianyang City, Sichuan Province disclosed Haidilao's plan to go public.
In the words of netizens: Haidilao started in Jianyang, Sichuan. According to public reports, in 1994, its founder Daniel Zhang used the 8,000 yuan he saved to open a spicy hot restaurant in his hometown of Jianyang.
In 1996, Daniel Zhang changed the business model from spicy hot pot to hot pot, and changed the name of the restaurant to "Haidilao".
In 1999, Haidilao began to go out of Sichuan and gradually develop markets in Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Beijing and other markets.
The expansion rate of Haidilao in the early stage was not very fast. Until 2010, there were only 51 Haidilao stores, but in 2017, this number rose to 273. Since then, after several years of headwind expansion, although there has been a contraction of the front, 6 years later, in mid-2023, the number of Haidilao stores is as high as 1,382.
Charts**|Oriental Fortune (thanks in advance!) ）
The situation in Haidilao in 2024 is no longer the same. Internally, as shown in the statistics of Oriental Wealth in the table above, the headwind expansion is superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, and Haidilao has suffered significantly in recent years, not to mention the ups and downs of growth, and even suffered large losses in individual years.
In addition, after the adjustment in the first two years, the overall environment of the catering industry has also changed.
After the wind and waves, the catering industry in 2023 will also experience ice and fire. First of all, a large wave of recovery during the Spring Festival**, superimposed on the explosion of various online celebrity catering on May Day, drove the strong growth of the catering industry in the first half of the year.
Tianyancha data shows that from January to June 2023, there will be 167 newly registered enterprises in the catering industryMore than 60,000, compared with the same period in 2022**234%。
Then in the second half of 2023, the involution began. Various brands of "wool" ** emerge in an endless stream, and Mi Mei is one of the participants. Every day, I am used to looking at various **platforms,** it is very fragrant. But behind this, there are small profits from merchants, and they may even lose money.
Taking giants such as KFC and Pizza Hut as examples, their average average order value in the third quarter of 2023 decreased year-on-year. On the other hand, the cost has not been reduced much. Labor, rent, raw materials and other costs seem to be still **.
Charts**|Qichacha (thanks in advance!) ）
The involution has intensified the industry reshuffle. According to the data of Qichacha, the number of registered catering-related enterprises in China in 2023 will be 410110,000, but the number of revocations is also as high as 12650,000 units, which is more than twice the sales volume of catering enterprises in 2022, setting a new high for catering enterprises since 2020.
From Haidilao's own point of view, the performance in 2023 is good.
Previously, at the end of February 2024, Haidilao disclosed a positive profit forecast for 2023. According to the announcement, as of December 31, 2023, the company's annual income from continuing operations is expected to be no less than 41.4 billion yuan, with an increase of no less than 333%。
Compared to 16 in 2022With a net profit of 400 million yuan (excluding the international business of Tehai), Haidilao's net profit in 2023 will not be less than 4.4 billion yuan. The increase was mainly attributable to the increase in turnover rate and improvement in operational efficiency of Haidilao restaurants.
This net profit data is indeed very high compared to Haidilao over the years. Mi Mei took a look, Haidilao's net profit since 2019 was more than 2.3 billion yuan in 2019.
Haidilao said in the announcement that its financial performance is expected to reflect a strong recovery after the new crown epidemic. Compared with 2019, the revenue and net profit from continuing operations were about 249$400 million and $25600 million yuan (excluding Tehai international business), revenue and net profit in 2023 are expected to increase by no less than 659% and 718%。According to Haidilao, the increase was mainly due to the expansion of Haidilao's restaurant network.
Compared with 2019, Haidilao's restaurant network has indeed expanded a lot - from 768 to 1,382, an increase of nearly 80%.
Charts**|Oriental Fortune (thanks in advance!) ）
However, Mi Mei noticed that on the first trading day after the disclosure of the performance forecast, Haidilao's stock price did not fluctuate greatly, and the increase was about 159%, and the last two trading days combined have an increase of about 5%.
At the end of February, Haidilao's per share reached 14After 88 Hong Kong dollars, the next step is ** lower. As of March 5, Hong Kong stocks** were 13HK$56.
A netizen said it well: When someone wants to take you to make money, it means that he wants to make money from you. It's a bit of an exaggeration, but sometimes it does, haha.
In Mimei's view, there are two main reasons for Haidilao's opening to join: first, whether from the current situation of the industry or the overall macro expectations for the future, the growth space is relatively limited;
Second, although Haidilao will recover significantly in 2023, it is not yet known whether this recovery will be sustainable in the long term. You must know that Haidilao has opened a wave of stores frantically in the past few years, resulting in a huge loss of more than 4.1 billion yuan in its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021.
Under the huge loss, Haidilao's stock price has also plummeted since then, from more than HK$85 at the peak in 2021 to more than HK$13 now.
Relying on your own store is too uncertain; There is also limited space to reduce internal costs and increase efficiency. The current internal and external situation does not support Haidilao to make too many "mistakes".
To stabilize the position of the industry, open franchise has become a relatively stable growth plan. In fact, not only Haidilao, but also another catering giant Jiumaojiu also announced in February that it would open up some of its catering brand franchise business.
But there is also uncertainty behind this: that is, the quality control and management risks of franchise stores. I believe that both Haidilao and Jiumaojiu have considered these problems and have relevant countermeasures, but the plan cannot catch up with the changes, and no one knows how it will develop in the future.
The rain is coming, we will wait and see.
This article does not indicate ** are from the official website or announcement of the listed company, hereby explain and thank! This article is for discussion and analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
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