For a long time, we may have misunderstood the country's attitude towards real estate and **, always thinking that it is either a white cat or a black cat, in fact, there are orange cats and flower cats.
So before today's content begins, let me ask you this question, do you think the country wants housing prices to go down? Remember, it's not that you want house prices to go down, it's that you think the country wants house prices to go down, remember the answer, and when it's over, see if you can change the answer now.
Hello everyone, I am Dahai Qingdao, a real estate practitioner for more than ten years, I like to post some ** related to Qingdao property market or real estate in my spare time, I hope you can like it.
Since 1998, when the welfare housing system was abolished and housing was commercialized, China's real estate has been developing for more than 20 years. However, although real estate has been developed for more than 20 years, 99% of us may not really figure out what the country's attitude towards real estate is, and it can even be said that 99% of us may have misunderstood the real attitude of the state towards real estate and **.
When the real estate market is sluggish and the state introduces relevant policies to support real estate, many people will naturally think that the country's attitude towards real estate is to hope that housing prices will be the best, or how will policies be introduced to support real estate!
Actually, I want to say, Goku: You may be thinking too much! Want a rate**? Actually, it's just your own wishful thinking! The state doesn't think so, and the state has introduced policies to support real estate for two reasons
One is that the state is worried that housing prices will fall too quickly, which may trigger systemic financial risks and drag down the country's economic development. The other is that the short-term economic growth may be slow, and real estate needs to pull the economy, so policies will be introduced to stimulate real estate.
In fact, our country has introduced a lot of support policies for real estate in the past two years, but housing prices have been declining, which is actually very consistent with the first situation, the country is worried that housing prices will fall too fast, causing systemic financial risks.
In 2008, the state's policy of supporting real estate is actually more in line with the second situation, in order to cope with the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, real estate needs to pull the economy, but this phenomenon of stimulating the economy with real estate has become history, the country in order to get rid of the economy's dependence on real estate, for the healthy development of the economy and real estate, for the industrial upgrading of our country, the state also said, will not use real estate to stimulate economic development in the future.
When the real estate market is overheated, the state has introduced policies to regulate real estate, emphasizing that housing is not speculation, removing the financialization of houses, and even real property tax, some people naturally think that housing prices are too high and everyone can't afford to buy a house. Therefore, the national policy regulates the behavior of real estate in order to make housing prices fall and make housing affordable for everyone.
Actually, I want to say, Bajie: You are making yourself amorous again! Daydreaming isn't a good habit! When the real estate market is overheated and housing prices are too fast, the purpose of the state to introduce policies to regulate real estate is not to suppress housing prices, not to let everyone buy a house, but to worry that housing prices will lead to systemic financial risks too fast, because the risk is rising, so there will be a phenomenon of national policy regulation and even suppression of real estate.
In fact, the relationship between the state and real estate is like the relationship between the driver and the car, real estate is like a car, the country is the driver, once the car runs too fast and is easy to lose control, it may lead to the destruction of the car and death, so the state's regulation and control policy on real estate is just to cool down the real estate, so step on the brakes.
Therefore, we may have misunderstood the country's true attitude towards real estate and **, ** is also this truth, some people may not understand, all say ** is the barometer of the economy, our country's economy has increased more than ten times in the past 20 years, but ours has been standing still at 3000 points, and like India**, the United States**, etc. have risen I don't know how many times, so many people can't figure it out.
In fact, this is not to recognize the reality, see through the essence, real estate is the barometer of our country's economic development, in the past 20 years real estate and the economy are hand in hand, real estate is our country's largest reservoir of funds. And the role played in our country is a place to finance enterprises, not a place to make money, and if everyone can make money, no one wants to go to a dirty and tired factory to screw it!
Looking back on the rapid development of China's real estate for more than 20 years, you will find that the development of China's real estate has not been smooth sailing, although the overall upward trend, but the process is bumpy and twists and turns, during the period of 2008 and 2014 troughs, but also 2004, 2009 and 2016 to 2018 climax.
Therefore, the country's policy on real estate is also a will support, a will regulate, when the real estate market is overheated, when the real estate market is sluggish, the simplest summary of the country's policy on real estate in the past 20 years is to play a dozen and pull a pull.
When there are signs of slowing down the economic development, policies will be introduced to pull real estate, so that real estate can pull China's economy; And when the economic development momentum is good and real estate is not needed, policies will be introduced to regulate real estate to prevent real estate from overheating, which is why some people ridicule real estate as a "night pot"!
It is precisely because of the continuous change of the country's attitude towards real estate that many ordinary people have always misunderstood the country's true attitude towards real estate. Every time the state introduces various real estate regulation policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions, it is thought that the country wants to let housing prices fall, and every time the country introduces policies to support real estate, it is thought that the country wants to make housing prices, in fact, no matter what kind of cognition, it can not really reflect the true attitude.
Because, whether it is real estate or ** is very important to the security of China's financial system, therefore, the country is most concerned about real estate and ** is not ** or declined, the country is most concerned about the safety of the country, and real estate and ** in what state is the safest? Of course, it is safest when it is stable.
Therefore, our country's most real attitude towards real estate and ** is not hope**, nor hope to decline, in fact, it is very simple, there is only one word, "stable"! Steady, this word can be understood as down-to-earth, so that there will be no risk!
However, the laws of the market itself determine that housing prices cannot rise all the time, nor can they always fall, so when housing prices are the best, the country hopes for steady, step by step, rather than straight lines; When house prices fall, what the state wants is a steady decline, not too fast, too fast and there will be risks.
And human nature is to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, when it is profitable, it is always rushed, when risks appear, it is scattered, and it is always swayed by emotion. Therefore, the country can only beat and beat from time to time through policy regulation or policy stimulation, don't overheat! Be aware of the risks! Or don't be too scared! There's always a chance!
So, remember the question I asked you at the beginning? Do you think the country's attitude towards real estate and ** is hoping for ** or declining? Do you think what I'm saying makes more sense or is your answer more plausible? In fact, I feel that what our leaders often said in the past is still very reasonable, do you think what you think is what you think?
Therefore, if you understand this truth, it is equivalent to seeing through the national policies, and you will truly understand that since May 2022, the country has continued to introduce so many policies to support real estate, why the real estate market is getting colder and colder, and housing prices are still declining, because the fundamental purpose of the country's introduction of these policies is not to raise housing prices, but to support housing prices to prevent real estate from falling too fast, causing systemic financial risks, and dragging down the country's economic development.
Therefore, we don't need to doubt whether to follow the national policy, because, no matter what you do in our country, you must follow the national policy, and what the state supports may not be able to develop, and what the state does not support will definitely not be able to develop, but how to follow the national policy is another discipline.
To this end, I also summarized such a law based on the past real estate and national policies, and shared it with you. My experience is that no matter whether the market is in an upward cycle or a downward cycle, there is no need to follow the national policy in the early stage, but it must follow the national policy in the later stage.
For example, from 2016 to 2018, this round of housing price upward cycle, in the second half of 2016, housing prices began to **, so many cities have limited purchases, loans, sales and other policies come out, when you just see the national regulation policy, do you need to follow the national policy?
In fact, there is no need at this time, because at this time, the national policy is just to beat the market, don't rise too much! To remain rational, since the housing prices are the first, it must be because the market is good, since the state has a policy to regulate, it must also be because of the good regulation, so it is good to follow the market at this time.
However, if the market continues to overheat, the state will repeatedly introduce more favorable regulatory policies, and at this time we must follow the national policy, because, if the first and second lines repeatedly challenge the bottom line of supervision, it will only lead to heavier regulatory policies.
When the market is in a downward cycle, the country sees a downside risk, so the introduction of policy support, this time if you follow, then the interests of the loss is your own, in this case you must follow the national policy in the later stage of the market downward cycle, your own interests can be maximized. **Friends, recall those demon stocks in the past, such as Zhongtong Bus, is it also very consistent with this truth?
Therefore, the real attitude of the state towards real estate and the real estate is not to hope for a decline or a decline, but to hope for a healthy and stable development.
Okay, that's all for today's sharing, let's see you next time!