Recently, there has been more gossip about Vanke, and there are even rumors that Vanke may be falling. There are even some people who are worried about how long Vanke can last, and don't survive this year. There are three main reasons to be bearish on Vanke:
First, it is rumored that Vanke is taking the initiative to negotiate the extension of a non-standard debt this week, which was personally led by Yu Liang to negotiate, which has been extended once last year, and is now the second time to talk about the extension. There was news over the weekend that Vanke's debt was not well negotiated and was poured cold water. Some people analyzed that Vanke's cash flow was indeed under pressure, otherwise it would not have taken the initiative to talk about the extension. The second is that Vanke sold a "most profitable business" in Shanghai to Link Exhibition before, which was analyzed by many people as Vanke taking the initiative to cash out, after all, it was given a 75% discount. This project Vanke sold very uneconomically, and many people felt sorry for Vanke. Third, after the beginning of this year, Vanke's sales situation is also not optimistic, although the sales team has worked very hard, but the decline in performance is still obvious, Vanke is gradually losing blood. These reasons are indeed very tenable, and many private real estate companies have been out of danger before, starting from debt extension and first-class assets, such as the previous Country Garden. Vanke's cash flow crunch does have some external signs, but we believe that this is Vanke's active debt management. Yu Liang, who has a financial background, naturally knows the importance of cash, so it is best to take the initiative to talk about debts now, and it is best to fight for them as soon as possible. You can take a look at Vanke's recent stock price, and there is indeed no big fluctuation, which shows that the capital market, which has the ability to be an information prophet, is not brainlessly bearish on Vanke's current situation. As a real estate practitioner, there is no need to be overly bearish on Vanke, and it is normal for the industry to adjust the period and dispose of asset management debts.
Vanke may be difficult next week, and the bears are ready to short Vanke. Vanke's bonds have fallen a lot last Friday, and it is estimated that bonds and stocks will be under pressure next week. Last year, there was another thing that attracted more attention, that is, the large-scale layoffs and asset disposal of Singaporean real estate company Yanlord Land. It was also interpreted by everyone that Yanlord Land was about to fall, and it must be running away in a hurry. But looking back now, there is nothing big about it, it is just a move to take the initiative to reduce debts and carry out debt management in advance. It's the outward characteristics that are manifested, and it really looks painful.
As a mature developer, between cycles in the real estate industry, it is a choice to carry out some debt management or expansion against the market according to actual needs. During the downturn of the industry, it is a very rational choice to take the initiative to reduce the leverage of the ** project, rather than waiting for the debt default before rushing to tear down the east wall and make up the west wall. As the earliest listed real estate developer in China, Vanke is a spiritual symbol of the real estate industry, and if Vanke really has a problem, it will also be a great damper to the confidence of the entire industry. We believe that Vanke will not have problems in the short term, and it will definitely not be a problem, after all, there are Shenzhen state-owned assets behind Vanke.
There is also good news that Vanke is recently negotiating the renovation project of **Samsung Vision, and the acquirer is a state-owned enterprise in Shenzhen. The volume of this project is relatively large, and once it is successful, it will cash out tens of billions of yuan, which will greatly increase Vanke's capital safety cushion. At present, the problems faced by Vanke are also faced by the entire real estate industry. In the case of continuous decline in sales and slow recovery, many real estate companies are facing shrinking cash flow and gradually losing part of their ability to repay debts. Cash flow for asset-heavy development model of real estate enterprises, to a very critical test node, the next real estate companies to cross the cycle need to carry out strategic transformation:
Either sell a large number of projects, frantically reduce leverage, and reduce Dad's debt to a safe boundary. Throughout last year, Hong Kong-funded real estate company New World Real Estate was also doing this. Or open up the road to asset **. Vanke has recently tested the waters of the second REITs, with an estimated amount of more than 1 billion yuan, and the underlying asset is a logistics park.