Author: Qiantangke.
Abstract:I don't know if it's a coincidence, or if it's a private arrangement, when many colleges and universities make it clear in the enrollment brochure for master's students that they don't provide accommodation for full-time professional degree master's students, the students who are worried about this catch up with the rent dive in the first-tier cities. We don't know whether we should be happy or worried about these graduate students, because this wave of rent dividends came from people who chose to "flee Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou" due to the increasing economic pressure. This is a time of great change, and it is clear that we should not ignore the fact that these seemingly separate events may one day change the fate of all of us.In the third quarter of 2023, the level of housing rents in 40 key cities across the country has increased**, of which the rents in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have exceeded 1% quarter-on-quarter**, and the rents in Shanghai in the third quarter have decreased by 2% compared with the second quarter12%。The reasons for this are none other than the following:
1.Prices**. This year, housing prices in Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai have reached ** respectively. 5%。
2.Evacuation of the population. Shanghai's tax data for the first quarter of this year shows that individual income tax revenue fell by 7 percent year-on-year5%, it seems that either the income has declined, or there are fewer migrant workers who pay taxes.
At the end of 2022, the permanent population of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased at the same time, with the permanent population of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou reaching 2,184 respectively30,000 people, 2475890,000 people, 1873410,000 people, a decrease of 4 from the previous year30,000 people, 13540,000 people, 7650,000 people. The permanent population of Shenzhen is 1766180,000, a decrease of 1 from 2021980,000 people, the first negative growth since the establishment of the city. According to data from the Shanghai Bureau of Statistics, compared with 2021, the permanent resident population, which is the main force of renting, has decreased by nearly 2570,000 people.
3.Supply increases. The landlord did not want to sell the house in the falling price, so he chose to sell and sublease, which increased the number of rentals a lot. However, what really brings excess supply is the rental housing built with the participation of state-owned assets. At present, there are a total of 21 rental housing projects with a total of 26,700 units. There are rental houses in many core areas, which have forced down the rents in the surrounding areas.
Coincidentally, the number of applicants for the postgraduate entrance examination will also start in 2023. From 2010 to 2015, the number of graduate students has remained stable at around 1.5 million, and the annual growth rate has never exceeded 10%. Since 2017, the number of graduate students has begun to show a double-digit increase. Affected by the epidemic, in 2022, the number of graduate students will increase by 21 year-on-year2%。After 8 consecutive years of growth, in 2024, the number of graduate students finally began to decline, and in 2024 it will decrease by 7 compared to 20236%。We looked at a number of reports, and the attribution analysis of the decline focused on the following:
1.The competition for admission to prestigious schools is fierce, which has led to a drop in the acceptance rate.
2.Prestigious schools have gradually increased the proportion of students who are exempted from admission, which has increased the difficulty of being admitted.
3.The employment pressure of master's graduates is high, and the gold content of master's diplomas is declining.
4.Examination preparation, public examination and studying abroad have also diverted the postgraduate examination crowd to a certain extent.
From the perspective of international standards, there is nothing wrong with colleges and universities not arranging accommodation. In some developed countries, schools not only do not provide dormitories for master's students, but even the accommodation for undergraduates is arranged externally and stably**. However, in terms of the national conditions of the country, graduate students who have always been accustomed to living in university dormitories have suddenly become more expensive, and it is understandable that they are difficult to accept for a while. A master's degree is very important for many people who want to improve the dilemma of their first degree.
However, colleges and universities also have their own troubles and starting points, with the expansion of universities to recruit master's students, the problem of shortage of accommodation resources is becoming more and more prominent, and the cost of building dormitories in first-tier cities will not be a small expense. Under the condition that the proportion of graduate students is not very flexible (after all, merit-based admissions are necessary), if the number of graduate students declines further in the future, vacant dormitories will also cause a lot of waste of resources. Judging from the above analysis, it is the general trend for colleges and universities not to arrange dormitories.
For cross-regional graduate students, the school does not provide accommodation, which naturally greatly increases the cost of living. College students are originally dependent on their parents to provide living expenses, and if the family conditions are limited, the rising cost of accommodation will inevitably inhibit their daily consumption. When the rent of the school is reduced, it can indeed greatly relieve the pressure of their lives.
But when we go back to the first part of the article and think carefully about the reasons for rent**, at this time, even if we are not very scary, we need to weigh the pros and cons of studying for a master's degree. The rising unemployment rate, the difficult employment situation of college students, and the high cost of living in first-tier cities have forced many migrant workers to retreat, and they have to think about whether to continue to live in the city or return to their hometowns for stability.
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