In recent years, the momentum of world economic growth has been obviously insufficient, unstable, uncertain and unpredictable factors have increased, various forms of unilateralism and protectionism have prevailed, the challenges of anti-globalization and pan-security have intensified, and the problems of unbalanced, inadequate and insecure development have become increasingly prominent. In the face of unprecedented development challenges and problems in today's world, only taking the path of high-quality development is the right choice to conform to the trend of the times. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), China has put forward and implemented the new development concept, focused on promoting high-quality development, promoted the construction of a new development paradigm, achieved a historic leap in economic strength, and maintained its position as an important engine of world economic development for many years, and will continue to be an important engine of world economic development.
China's high-quality economic development has made remarkable achievements.
After the reform and opening up, China's economy has entered the fast lane of growth, and its economic strength has continued to increase. In the process, the so-called "theory of China's economic collapse" and "theory of China's economic peak" have been heard endlessly. As early as the 90s of the 20th century, before and after the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western countries advocated "peaceful evolution" and the "Washington consensus", deduced "total westernization" to China, and predicted that China "will soon collapse and change color." In 2001, Chinese-American lawyer Zhang Jiadun even wrote a book on "China's collapse," postulating that "China's current political and economic system can only last for five years at most, and China's economy will begin to collapse before the 2008 Beijing Olympics." Although this "collapse theory" itself has long since collapsed, many Westerners, including him, continue to concoct and peddle arguments that sing the praises of China.
The basic fact that amazes the world is that in the more than 40 years since 1980, China's economic growth rate has averaged 9%, which is 5 percent higher than the average world economic growth rate over the same period6 percentage points. In 2009 and 2020, when the world economy suffered a huge shock and fell into recession, China's economy grew against the trend. Among them, China's economic growth rate in 2009 was 92%, bringing brightness to the world economy in recession; In 2020, China's economy still grew by 2 percent despite the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic3%, becoming the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth. Thanks to its long-term rapid economic growth, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed Japan in 2010 to become the world's second-largest country, and the gap between China and Japan has widened for more than a decade.
After China became the world's second largest economy, due to the continuous increase in the size of the economy, the economic growth rate has decreased compared with the past, but the growth performance is still bright, and the growth is more focused on quality. Between 2010 and 2023, China's economy grew at an average annual rate of 68%, which is 3. higher than the world economic growth rate in the same period5 percentage points. Among them, the growth rate of China's economy in 2023 is 52%, an increase of 2 compared to 20222 percentage points. China's economy contributes more than 30% to world economic growth.
Under such circumstances, some Western countries are still hyping up the groundless "theory that China's economy has peaked" in an attempt to launch a psychological offensive to undermine the international community's confidence in China's economy. As in the past, these arguments ignore the tremendous achievements and good momentum of China's economic development, and ignore the remarkable progress made in China's high-quality economic development in recent years.
Behind the comparison of economic data.
The so-called strong "evidence" often cited by the proponents of the "theory of China's economic peak" is that in the past two years, the economic aggregate between China and the United States has reversed in favor of the United States. After reaching about 76% of US GDP in 2021, China's nominal GDP has declined for two consecutive years, accounting for about 70% in 2022 and falling to about 65% in 2023. In fact, there are multiple factors behind this data.
Statistically speaking, the gap between US nominal GDP and China has indeed widened, but it is worth noting that this is not because the US economy has a stronger momentum than China. On the contrary, China's real economic growth rate in 2023 is about twice that of the U.S. economy in the same period, with a gap of 27 percentage points, an increase from 2022. The nominal growth rate of US GDP in 2023 is about 63%, compared to China's nominal GDP growth rate of 4. in local currency terms over the same period6%。This has led to the anomaly that China's real GDP growth rate is higher than that of the United States and its nominal growth rate is lower than that of the United States. In dollar terms, the gap between the nominal GDP growth rates of China and the United States is even wider.
It is well known that nominal GDP growth supported by high inflation not only does not lead to an increase in social well-being, but also widens the gap in wealth distribution, leading to greater social injustice, and thus only false prosperity. The long-term high inflation in the United States is caused by the improper macroeconomic control and insufficient social governance capacity of the United States, which has greatly raised the cost of living of the American people in recent years. Now, the problem of high inflation has become the "number one contributor" to widening the gap between China's economic aggregate between the United States and China.
In addition, from a statistical point of view, the United States mainly uses the expenditure method to account for GDP. GDP on the expenditure basis is made up of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services. In recent years, the United States has continued to implement a large-scale expansionary fiscal policy, maintaining high consumption and investment by borrowing on a large scale, and the fiscal deficit is at a historic high. Fiscal year 2020 (October of the previous year to September of the current year) Fiscal year and fiscal year 2023 were the three largest fiscal deficits in U.S. history. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the U.S. fiscal deficit in the past three years was 313 trillion dollars, 277 trillion dollars and 1$695 trillion. Among them, the U.S. budget deficit in fiscal year 2023 is less than the historical peak, but it is 23% higher than that of fiscal year 2022. The long-term and large-scale fiscal deficit has led to high debt levels in the United States, and it has repeatedly fallen into "shutdown" crises due to reaching the debt ceiling. In February 2024, the "Global Debt Monitor" report released by the Institute of International Finance showed that by the end of 2023, the United States** still ranked first in the world in terms of debt scale, with a total amount of more than 34 trillion US dollars, accounting for more than 124% of GDP, equivalent to about 100,000 US dollars in per capita debt. These debts are eventually included in the calculation of GDP in the form of ** spending. With rising debt levels, this expansionary fiscal policy-backed economic growth will be unsustainable.
Those who speak out about China will only miss out on opportunities.
In the long run, the driving force of economic growth mainly comes from factors such as technological progress, human capital accumulation, institutional innovation, and specialized division of labor. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has adhered to the principle that science and technology are the primary productive forces, talents are the first resource, and innovation is the first driving force, and has thoroughly implemented the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, the strategy of strengthening the country with talents, and the strategy of innovation-driven development. In order to create a large enough market size to accommodate the division of labor and specialization, China has launched a series of major measures to comprehensively deepen reforms, resolutely eliminate the shortcomings of various systems and mechanisms, and significantly improve the level of modernization of the country's governance system and governance capacity, providing an important guarantee for long-term economic growth.
China has promoted the construction of a unified national market internally, implemented a more proactive strategy of opening up to the outside world, and accelerated the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international cycles reinforcing each other. Therefore, the foundation for China's long-term economic improvement will be more consolidated, and the momentum of high-quality development will be stronger. In addition, China's new development is innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared, and more efficient, fairer, more sustainable and safer, which will provide more useful references and greater development opportunities for all countries in the world.
At home, China has always adhered to the people-centered development philosophy, regarded safeguarding the fundamental interests of the people and improving people's livelihood and well-being as an important mission of development, and continuously realized that development is for the people, development depends on the people, and the fruits of development are shared by the people, so that the fruits of modernization can benefit all people in a more equitable manner. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the income of residents across the country has maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the income gap between urban and rural areas has continued to narrow. In 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide will be 39,218 yuan, an actual increase of 61%。Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 51,821 yuan, an increase of 48%；The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 21,691 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan in real terms6%。Chinese society has remained stable for a long time, and people's sense of gain, happiness and security has been continuously enhanced. Long-term social stability is not only the inevitable result of China's development model, but also an important advantage of China's development environment. China continues to inject more certainty into the world with its own stability, and continues to promote inclusive global development with fuller and more balanced development.
Globally, China has always pursued a mutually beneficial and win-win strategy of opening-up, actively promoted the construction of an open world economy, and continuously provided new opportunities for the world with China's new development. History has long proven that singing about China will not make China decline, but will only make those who sing the decline miss the opportunity to share in China's development. Unlike some developed countries, which are keen to "build walls and barriers", "decouple and break chains", and engage in unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure, China advocates an equal and orderly multipolar world and inclusive economic globalization, actively promotes international macroeconomic policy coordination, and works with all parties to create an international environment conducive to development, jointly cultivate new drivers of global development, and jointly promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has made great efforts to create a first-class business environment that is market-oriented, law-based and internationalized, and has achieved in-depth interaction between its own super-large market and the world. China has become a major partner of more than 140 countries and regions, ranking first in the world in terms of total cargo volume, attracting foreign capital and foreign investment in the forefront of the world, forming a pattern of opening up to the outside world on a larger scale, in a wider range of fields and at a deeper level. The high-quality Belt and Road Initiative has built the world's broadest and largest platform for international cooperation, and has become a road of opportunity, prosperity and happiness for global development.
Author: Xu Xiujun is a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Research Center for Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era, and a researcher at the National Global Strategy Think Tank