Note! Pig prices are fluctuating again, more and more towards last year's trend
Although pig prices were as expected after the New Year, this one diverged the market: some continued to be bearish, while others were bullish.
Since then, it has been declining, and there are several main reasons for the rise:
First of all"Tipping point"。
As this year's pig production capacity has dropped to 41 million heads, the market for the second half of the pig price"Tipping point"I'm starting to look forward to it.
Add to that the fact that this pig cycle is losing money for too long, then theoretically, it's time to turn the page.
And with the frequent introduction of the next round of grain storage plans after the year, many people also see it as a political factor in the equation.
While it's normal for the market to have ups and downs, we've noticed some interesting evolution of the pig market.
In other words, the pig market is becoming more and more like last year.
What is it like?
For example, right"Tipping point"The expectations for the second half of the period, the growth momentum for secondary fattening and the high level of frozen stocks are simply set in stone.
Last year, pig price fluctuations were mainly affected by two factors: one is rhythm, and the other is emotion.
Although the supply of live pigs continued to exceed demand last year, the pace of phases will also affect the market.
For example, the increase in the enthusiasm of secondary fattening can relieve the pressure in stages. There was a small rally in April last year, which was an attempt to manipulate the market.
While pig prices didn't fluctuate much until June, there was finally a strong recovery in July and August.
However, it was not demand that triggered the rebound in pig prices, but sentiment and suppression, due to the high consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in the fourth quarter, the second fattening began to show up in full force.
But the result is also well known: the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival did not push up pig prices, so in the fourth quarter of last year, pig prices fell to the altar.
After solving last year's problems, many people are starting to worry that the situation is becoming more and more similar, will this year's market repeat the mistakes of last year?
It's an unknown, but some conclusions can be drawn:
First of all, the pressure on supply and demand is lower than last year.
In terms of pressure, this year's pressure is lower than last year's, and as demand recovers, it will theoretically be better than last year, so this year's overall volume must be better than last year's.
But it is also limited, which is an important factor in limiting pig prices.
Secondly, pig price fluctuations are likely to be more frequent.
Why is there less pressure on supply and demand and more volatility?
The expectations of market players will affect emotions, emotions will affect actions, and actions will affect the stage**, which is why the pig market will open frequently this year, that is to say, the rise and fall of pig prices will become more frequent.
Third, the political aspect.
In general, the political component consists of two aspects: one is the development of important documents or meetings, and the other is concrete actions.
This year's No. 1 document does not have much ink, but that doesn't mean that this year's pig market is not important.
Not long ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a policy on the implementation of Document No. 1, which mentioned"Optimize and adjust pig production capacity. Improve the law enforcement plan for the regulation and control of pig production capacity, and moderately relax the lower limit of the green control zone", which means that the pig production capacity standard will be further lowered, and it also means that the current capacity pressure is still not small.
In the year after this round of storage, the action has been continuous, but because it is a round of storage, the number of placements and acquisitions is the same, it is just a matter of continuity, so the impact on the market is not large.
All in all: this year's pig market is better than last year, but the degree of good is probably limited, and the pressure is still not small.
Therefore, the pig market still needs to be cautiously optimistic, the old pig cycle is not working, and the new pig cycle is being established.
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