After 80 years, there are only 7300 million people left in China?

Mondo Science Updated on 2024-03-02

One of the major challenges facing China is the continuous decline in the number of newborns and the intensification of population aging, especially after the seventh population census, a series of data on the population have aroused extensive discussions, among which the problem of low fertility is particularly concerning. According to statistics, the number of new births in the country in 2023 will be 9.02 million, and at this rate, it will take up to 100 years to accumulate 90.2 billion people. Obviously, this is a serious low number of new people in our country of 1.4 billion people.

In fact, in order to cope with the declining trend of the number of newborns, China has fully liberalized the two-child policy in 2016. However, it is regrettable that only briefly saw a rebound in the number of new births in 2016 and 2017, but from 2017 onwards, the number of new births fell sharply, forming a cliff-like trend. This shows that the full liberalization of the second and third child birth policies has not achieved the expected results, and only some families who intend to have a second child have realized their wishes. However, the more serious problem is that many young people are reluctant to even have a child. At present, the attitude of many young people is "not to get married, not to have children, not to raise children", and this trend has undoubtedly greatly reduced the birth rate of our country.

In 2023, the number of new births in China has plummeted to 9.02 million, which is already extremely interesting, and it is even more noteworthy that the number of new births continues to decline every year. The medical journal The Lancet has shown that the total population of the planet will peak at 9.7 billion by 2064, and then begin to gradually decline. By 2100, the world's population will shrink to 8.8 billion. Of these, the population of our country is expected to drop to 7300 million, that is, in 80 years, our population will be halved.

Looking at the current number of new births in China, the grim reality of population decline is close at hand, and the core driving force behind it is the resistance of the younger generation to childbearing. So, what is the reason for young people's "refusal to have children"? The reasons behind this are complex, but in summary, there are five main factors.

1. The impact of the family planning policy is far-reaching. InUnder the influence of the concept of "late marriage and late childbearing, fewer children and better childbearing", the younger generation has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Compared with the traditional concept of "more children and more blessings" in the past, modern young people are more inclined to marry later and have children later, and have fewer children and better children. They don't want to repeat the old way of life, but want to live a higher quality of life.

2. The problem of high housing prices has become a heavy burden for childbirth. The house, the "mountain" of modern society, has formed a huge suppression of young people's desire to have children. Marriage requires a house, but buying one is not an easy task. Many young people are hesitant to fall in love and get married due to the pressure of housing prices. Even if you buy a house, decades of mortgage pressure have made it difficult for families to afford the cost of raising children because most of their monthly income is spent on loan repayment.

3. The cost of raising a child is now at an all-time high. Parents today are more inclined to provide their children with a well-rounded, quality education than in the past, which has led to a significant increase in the cost of parenting. As a result, the children are figuratively called "gold-swallowing beasts". According to statistics from relevant institutions, in large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen alone, the total cost of a child from birth to adulthood is as high as 1.5 million yuan, and in second-tier cities, it also needs at least 1 million yuan.

In addition, in the face of high housing prices, many children find it difficult to afford the burden of buying a home after graduation. As a result, parents not only have to pay for their children's daily living and education, but also have to worry about their home and wedding costs. Obviously, the cost of raising children in modern society has become extremely heavy.

4. The cost of marriage is also rising. Today's young people are facing higher and higher marriage costs, not only to have a house and a car, but also to increase the amount of the bride price year by year. According to statistics, the national average bride price in 2020 was 690,000 yuan, and the bride price in Zhejiang is as high as 1830,000 yuan.

Houses, cars and bride prices have become a heavy burden for young people to get married. In addition to this, the various expenses required when getting married are also a significant expense. As a result, many young people have had to choose not to get married or postpone getting married. However, marrying late often means having children later, which makes many people who marry later choose to have only one child.

5. Women's educational qualifications and career standards are increasing day by day. Nowadays, the level of knowledge of women is getting higher and higher, and even among young people, the proportion of highly educated women has surpassed that of men. Not only do women own their own careers, but their income levels are also rising, which reflects their independence and self-reliance. According to statistics, the higher a woman's education, the later she often gets married, and even some highly educated women choose not to get married. With the increase in the number of single young people in society, the fertility rate naturally shows a downward trend.

Housing, health care and education, the common denominator behind these three lies in the economic support. As a result, many experts have put forward the idea of using economic incentives to stimulate fertility. Among them, Liang Jianzhang, a well-known demographer, in his article "Interpreting One of the Seven Popular Data: Suggesting a Reward of 1 Million for Having a Child", depicts a blueprint worth pondering for us: using the magic of money to ignite young people's enthusiasm for childbearing. He specifically suggested that for those families who are willing to have three children, they should be generous and give a reward of up to 1 million yuan. For those families living in popular cities, it should be combined with the housing purchase policy to provide families with one to three children with 9%, 7% and 5% discounts.

Liang Jianzhang not only cheered for families with three children, calling for a million-yuan reward, but also proposed an innovative plan to encourage childbirth through housing discounts in response to the soaring housing prices in popular cities. In fact, high housing prices have become a huge stumbling block for many young people to enter the palace of marriage and embark on the road to childbirth. Only when the housing price problem is effectively alleviated can people more freely pursue love, build a warm family, and bravely take on the responsibility of having the next generation. Such measures can not only help solve the problem of declining fertility, but also alleviate the pressure brought about by the aging of society to a certain extent, and make our society more harmonious, full of vitality and vitality.

When the population alarm bell rings,** it shows that China's population will plummet to 7 in 80 years300 million, this is by no means groundless. At present, the number of newborns in China has fallen into a slump and continues to decline. In the face of such a severe population situation, it is urgent to implement an active fertility incentive policy. We can no longer sit idly by, but must act now to contribute to the future of our country and the prosperity of our nation.

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